Monday, November 03, 2008

Will those Republicans stop at nothing?!


Florida officials refuse to establish polling place for nudists.

I blame Katherine Harris.
17 Marks Rd. Rvsd

Here's what's happening with at least one property in town:
Sold $2.250 million-5/10/2004
ACT $2.835 9/01/05
Sold $2.494.5 7/24/06
ACT $2.695 4/10/08
Now $2.295

I'd say we're back to 2004 prices and still dropping.

Feminists lose sense of humor, Criticize GPS-fitted chastity belt. Well when the One is elected and shuts down our electrical plants no one will have to worry about these things after the first battery charge. Unless, of course, insecure macho-types can fit their loved ones with solar powered units.
I've lost my socks - is my shirt next?

Hilfiger Sale
435 Round Hill Road was purchased for $18 million by Tommy Hilfiger back in October '05, had a ton of new (and expensive) modifications dumped into it and was put back up for sale earlier this year for $27.9 million. It was reduced today 21% down to $21.995. Subtracting the money spent improving it and commissions, taxes and all the other assorted transaction costs, I'd guess that Mr. Hilfiger is already out-of-pocket from owning this house for three years; and he hasn't sold it yet.



It's "Think of a Pirate Day"!
Or it is on this blog, at least, so I thought to check up on our Somali pirates who've been sitting on a Ukrainian freighter stuffed with tanks and big-time weapons since September 25th. The update? They're still there! The long promised Russian warship is finally approaching but other than that, no one seems to be going anywhere.

I knew you were curious.
"Of course it's safe - trust us, we're Swiss!"

UBS - the next Bear Sterns?
If you believe these allegations - and I do - UBS peddled Lehman Brothers' notes as "Good for Retirement" when, of course, they were unsecured promissory instruments which are now worthless. UBS wasn't the only bank selling junk it described as valuable but they do seem to have engaged in a large number of activities like this or that were just plain illegal, and pretty much continue to insist they did nothing wrong even as they pay back billions. Those auction-rated securities come to mind - UBS was unloading them for its favored corporate clients while dumping them into private clients' accounts even when it knew they were illiquid. Aiding and abetting tax dodgers via Swiss banking secrecy laws hasn't helped the bank's reputation or its bottom line, now that federal prosecutors are on to them.

What gives with this bank? The people I know who work for UBS are outstanding individuals who would never act unethically - never. So how did rogues come to get free run at the place? It has to be the fault of upper management but, regardless of the cause, things look increasingly dismal for this institution.
(I notice that one of our town weeklies ran a chart purporting to show sales statistics for the month of September, 2008. The paper obviously failed to notice that the numbers provided it were for the year, not just one month. Since I had run the actual sales numbers for September and October just last Friday, I thought I'd repost them here, for easy reference and to set the record straight.)Here are the same sales statistics for Sept.- Oct., grouped by percentage of original listing price. Again, forgive the poor formatting but the numbers are, original price, selling price and % of final to original.


69 Rockwood $2.295 - $2.729 - 119%
7 Ginko $1.150 - $1.275 - 111%
28 Lockwood Dr. $1.495 - $1.595 - 106.6%
18 Orchard Hill $1.895 - $2.0 - 105%
990 North St. $ 672 - $ 685 - 102%

11 Island Drive $15.75 - $15.5 - 98.4%
22 Bramble $1.575 - $1.525 - 97%
25 Ridge St. $1.695 - $1.650 - 97%
18 Sherwood $5.4 - $5.2 - 96%
37 Sachem $ 915 - $ 860 - 94%
5 Hollow Wood $ 699 - $ 650 - 93%
5 Lockwood Dr. $1.575 - $1.4425 - 92%
27 Dandy $2.549 - $2.349 - 92%
4 Cross Ridge $1.340 - $1.210 - - 90%


123 Shore Rd $3.2 - $2.8 - 87.5%
25 Birchwood $4.2 - $3.6 - 86%
83 Rvsd. Ave. $1.750 - $1.50 - 86%
101 Brookside $6.995 - $5.995 - 85.6%
17 Suburban $1.995 - $1.695 - 85%
29 Old Wagon $ 849 - $ 720 - 85%
62 Cat Rock $2.25 - $1.9 - 84%
49 Arcadia $2.495 - $2.075 - 83%
29 Irvine $2.585 - $2.150 - 83%
67 Hillside $2.8 - $2.325 - 83%
10 Keofferam $2.940 - $2.415 - 82%
268 Round Hill $5.6 - $4.6 - 82%
29 Spring St. $1.950 - $1.6 - 82%
70 Pecksland $3.7 - $3.0 - 81%
752 North St. $4.9 - $3.9 - 80%

60 Gold $ 610 - $ 481 - 79%-- [paid $495, 2003]
3 Old Farm Rd $1.995 - $1.525 - 76% --[pd.$1.75, 2003]
4 Old Round Hill $14.5 - $10.875 - 75%
12 Deep Gorge $1.250 - $ 937 - 75%
16 Beechcroft $8.295 - $6.15 - 74%
47 Will Merry $1.895 - $1.350 - 71%

11 Hettiefred $3.375 - $2.349 - 69.6%
83 Circle $2.795 - $1.885 - 67%
21 Wilshire $3.495 - $2.180 - 62%
279 Davis $ 899 - $ 550 - 61%


11 Langhorne $28 million - $13.75 - 49%
30 Nearwater Lane
Then and Now
In January 2005 this property was listed for sale as a building lot for $1.199 and sold immediately via bidding war for $1.305. 18 months later the builder, having done little to improve the lot other than tear down the existing house, put it back up for sale asking $1.595. Buyers weren't convinced that scraping off an old house was worth that kind of premium so the property didn't sell until July, 2007 and received only $1.215. If you think that this story illustrates that the ones who make out best are those who sell at the beginning of a boom, rather than at its end, you'd be right.

In any event, the new owner has indeed built a very nice new house and has been trying to sell it for $3.195 since April. Today it was marked down 6% to $2.995. That might be enough to move it; then again, it might not.
Nickola Tesla at work raising money
The real estate agents' carmaker of choice, Tesla Motors
has raised $40 million from existing investors. They were shooting for $100 million but settled for what they could get, I suppose. Just as soon as there is any real real estate news to report we'll get back on track here. Until then, perhaps you'd like to learn about Mr. Tesla's 19th Century version of the tinfoil hat.
Would you order a car that was based on this "science"? So far, 1,200 techies have - perhaps that shield against delusions doesn't work so well after all.

Sunday, November 02, 2008


Were you wondering where your favorite Savings and Loan officer got to?

The New York Time's Gretchen Morganson writes today on mortgage fraud at Washington Mutual. The only surprising thing here, if it's any surprise at all, is that this is exactly the same behavior that was going on at the S&Ls in the '80s. Weren't there supposed to have been regulations passed to curtail this? They didn't work.

Pixie Dust and propeller Beanies - that'll be a change!

Obama vows to bankrupt coal industry. So that's no nukes, no coal, but how much light do we really need to join hands around the campfire and sing Kumbaya?

Update: a reader says that, according to candidate Jim Himes, we'll do everything with windmills, which is certainly reassuring. This article by British historian Paul Johnson, however, is less sanguine. The author concludes with this vignette
I don't know whether this year's financial catastrophe will shock the politicians and people of the West into a new seriousness. There's certainly no sign of it yet. I had to laugh when a Chinese visitor recently said to me: "I see you're going back to the windmill in Britain. We Chinese cannot afford that."

Still more good news: In the same interview, The Messiah vows to "make energy costs skyrocket."
You know, when I was asked earlier about the issue of coal, uh, you know — Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket. Even regardless of what I say about whether coal is good or bad. Because I’m capping greenhouse gases, coal power plants, you know, natural gas, you name it — whatever the plants were, whatever the industry was, uh, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money on to consumers.


Oh, we're in for a good time!
A spiritual awakening in Greenwich?
Not in Greenwich, not yet. I included a chapter in my first book, The New Millionaire's Handbook entitled "Spirituality". The text simply read, "just kidding". Nothing much has changed in 10 years, apparently.
Abortion politics

The lady pictured above is a Chester, Connecticut real estate agent named Leslie Strauss who wants customers to know that she supports abortion. I personally find this an odd position to take by someone who is a self-confessed mother and grandmother but whatever. I obviously don't hide my own politics from potential customers so more power to Ms. Strauss. But abortion, an issue that so many people are at best ambivalent about, strikes me as something best left outside of business. Just my opinion, and perhaps Strauss will attract the huge amount of our populace that suffers from Bush Derangement Syndrome (recovery classes are scheduled to begin this next Wednesday at the YWCA). She'd better hope, however, that not too many of her customers practice what she preaches or who will be around to buy her houses?
The trouble with politicians

They think that driving around town in silly cars "builds excitement" and encourages people to vote. My solution for voters swayed by a wave from a fat politician in the rumble seat of an old car is the same as for those who are persuaded by a dozen candidate signs littering the grounds of our railroad stations: disenfranchise the idiots.
Selling it
In this otherwise banal press release I noticed that current real estate conditions are referred to as "choppy". This is the new preferred term for a market in the tank, as evidenced by a quick Google search. "Real estate Choppy" turns up 241,000 entries.

I don't know who dreams these things up but I do sympathize - it's got to be a tough job putting the best face on things day after day as things fall apart. My personal opinion is that the PR flack's job will be considerably eased come Wednesday morning, when the media will stop reporting bad economic news and will turn instead to trumpeting the arrival of the Jubilee. Happy days are almost here again - we just have to get through three more days of choppy weather.
Global warming should fix this

Britain labels Iceland a terrorist haven. Once those icebergs melt and wash these Eskimo bankers out to sea, peace will reign, eh?

The trouble with enacting broad, overreaching laws is that governments will be tempted to interpret them broadly and overreach. Support your local anarchist.
We were allies once, and strong

So U.S. commandos storm a terrorist hangout, kill at least seven and kill or capture the leader, one Abu Ghadiya, described as the “most prominent” weapons smuggler for Al-Qaeda in Iraq.

How does the Times of London see it? A "botched raid" that "seems to have gone spectacularly wrong."

The Times does concede that
"Despite the furore over the raid, there can be little doubt that the Americans will celebrate the death of Abu Ghadiya, whom they described as the “most prominent” smuggler for Al-Qaeda in Iraq. He allegedly ran guns, money and foreign fighters along the “rat lines” that lead across the desert into northern Iraq and sometimes led raids himself."

The Times reporter isn't mollified by such success and demands contrition: "American officials refused to apologise for the botched raid on Syria, " he notes disapprovingly. "They said the administration was determined to operate under a definition of self-defence that provided for strikes on terrorist targets in any sovereign state."

After castigating the wicked forces of the U.S., the article concludes with a reluctant admission: "For Al-Qaeda militants, the safe haven of Syria will be looking decidedly cooler as winter sets in."

A few more botched raids like this and we'll have to pack our bags and go home, heads bowed in shame.

Saturday, November 01, 2008

How dare you be productive?!

Last week, the One promised to punish anyone earning over $250,000. His partner in The Great Taking, Joe Biden, revised that downward on Monday to $150,000 and today, the official definition of "rich enough to steal from" was lowered to $120,000.By the day of anointment we'll all be rich - but not for long.
The New York Times doing what it used to do so often, and so well.
In depth report on the banking shenanigans that dragged down municipal dupes - $200 million leveraged into a $20 billion exposure, no appreciable payments in exchange for that risk and, of course, huge profits for the guy who sold the stuff.

It's all reminiscent of the stuff I used to go after when Wall Street was still content to defraud individual investors - these guys just figured out how to go big time.

One thing the article passes over but which will be the next, huge financial disaster of the coming decades: the bankruptcy of municipal pension plans. General discussion of this latter sorry subject can be found here.
Buy land!

Okay, that's a shot of Wyoming's Wind River Mountains, where I'd prefer to live but if, like me, you're stuck here in the Hell Hole of Greenwich, you can still make the best of things by building a nice house. I mentioned yesterday that my pal Lou Van Leeuwen and his company, Greenwich Construction LLC (698-9420)were offering 20%-30% off construction projects and suggested that other contractors could probably be persuaded to be equally as generous. I mostly discussed renovations and additions but of course, this isn't a bad time to build new, either. Same lower building costs and the same pressures on sellers of building lots.

The Greenwich MLS currently shows 105 land listings, ranging from $35 million for waterfront on Field Point Circle (discussed yesterday - I think there ought to be some give in that figure)to $245,000 for a tenth of an acre on Peck Avenue. Plus, there are many house listings that would be suitable for new construction: my own listing, at 34 North Porchuck, adjoining Audubon property and available for somewhere between $1.6ish to $1.75 ish is just one example.

So look around. My sense is that a lot of these properties were priced when builders were active and buying. That's not true right now and in fact, most builders I know have put their land inventory back on the market. Deals can be had.

Figure it will take a year or so to build a new house. By that time, the market may have recovered in which case you'll have an easier time selling your existing house at a price you like and you will have constructed a new house for far less than you could have a year ago or perhaps you could a year from now. Not a bad deal, I think.