Tuesday, July 08, 2008

More on pricing per square foot
A reader asks (see comments) "So land is not a variable in the square foot method? Where does it fit it, or is it added as a premium to the overall price?" Not quite, but when I'm using the method as a rough tool for measuring value, I just lump the land value into the total asking price and see what turns up. Again, though, you have to be sure you're comparing apples to apples. For instance, a building lot in Havemeyer that would support a 4,000 sq.ft. house might sell for $750,000 (sad news for Havemeyer residents who a few years ago might have expected as much as $900-$950K, but that's what's happening). A similar lot in Riverside, south of the Post Road on a decent street might sell for $1,350,000. That's a land cost of $187.50 per sq. ft. for the former, $337.50 psf for the latter. Assuming (dreaming, perhaps) that you could sell that Havemeyer new construction for $2,000,000, total cost for a 4,000 sq.ft. house would be $500 per sq. ft., including the land value and a $2,750,000 house of the same size in Riverside (ignoring the fact that buyers of new construction in Riverside prefer 5,000 sq.ft. and up) would cost $687 per sq.ft. for what I am assuming is the identically-constructed and finished house. So land value does play a role, but if you're comparing two new houses in Havemeyer or two new houses in Riverside, you can (sort of) ignore the land value.

But builders don't.I've seen houses in Havemeyer priced at $950,000 being pitched as ideal building sites. The math won't work for a builder. Figure $200 per square foot construction costs and $100,000 soft costs - interest, lawyers fees even, God bless them, real estate commissions - that's $900,000. Add $950,000 in land cost and the builder's up to $1,850,000 before he even tries to sell his project for that hypothetical $2,000,000. Consider the likelihood that he'll have to sell for less than he's asking in this market, and he's risking a huge sum for a small gain. So, not surprisingly, land values are dropping. Not to nothing,but dropping all the same. My advice for now is, if you aren't in a rush to sell, postpone.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree with your comment at the end of your post which said, "My advice for now is, if you aren't in a rush to sell, postpone."

However, I would add that your time frame to sell should be measured in years, not months. The real estate market is not going to come back for a long, long time nor is it anywhere near stabilizing.

So if you need/want to sell (in the near term 1-2 years minimum) it is much better to sell today (yesterday was even better) than waiting for tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

What about buying? Is the same advice true - "If you aren't in a rush to buy, wait?" Or is now a good time to buy?