Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Waiting for the other shoe to drop
Nothing coming out of the banking industry is good news recently, so buyers are understandably nervous and reluctant to buy. I can't give you advice on whether your job at UBS is threatened (well, according to some people I know, I can - don't plan any expensive vacations soon) but I did learn an interesting tidbit from Mark Hawkins, my colleague at William Raveis's mortgage banking division. According to Mark, a house's price must drop 10% to make up the difference of a 1% increase on a 30 year fixed rate. Interest rates are definitely going up, so waiting to commit on a house may end up costing, rather than saving you money.

On the other hand, do you have enough cash to buy a new house? The days of 20% (or, better yet, 10%) down are gone, at least for mortgages exceeding $2,000,000, which, in Greenwich, is a lot of the market. $2M mortgages require 30% down and it only gets worse from there. Greenwich real estate has performed no worse than the Dow (down about 14%) but certainly no better. Which will fare worse in the next year? Your guess is as good (probably better) than mine, but my guess says, as Wall Street goes, so goes the Greenwich market. Ya pays your money, ya take your chances. If you need a house now, though, and you've got some stocks you want to dump or a large pile of cash doing nothing, you can probably take advantage of a seller who is as nervous as you.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

As a cash buyer (of which you told me in an earlier post I am a rare bird), my vote is to sit back and wait.

I absolutely agree with "as the Wall Street goes, so goes the Greenwich market".

And as a retired Investment Banker everything I see says the Street is in for a world of hurt (this party is just getting started).

Anonymous said...

please read the comment above!