Can you hang on for a few years? I promise I'll get back to you.
98% of commercial real estate professionals are bearish on the market and most, 62% don't see the market stabilizing before 2010 - another 22% see 2011 as the magic year.
The majority of real estate executives — 60 percent — say the current credit crisis is the event with the single-greatest impact on the commercial real estate industry during the past 20 years, according to a national survey conducted by law firm DLA Piper.
The survey measures attitudes and perspectives of 424 top executives within the commercial real estate industry.
The majority of all respondents — 62 percent — don’t expect the real estate markets to stabilize until 2010, and 22 percent don’t expect to see stabilization until 2011.
About 51 percent of all respondents expect foreign investors to be the most active in the United States during the next year. Ninety percent describe themselves as bearish, up sharply from 68 percent in last October’s survey.
Eight out of 10 respondents do not believe that the recent developments concerning Lehman Brothers, AIG and Merrill Lynch signal the “bottom” of the cycle, nor do respondents think they provide the “first sign of light” at the end of the credit crisis tunnel.
Those views are for commercial, not residential real estate, but I'd guess you'd find a lot of residential brokers who agree with the sentiments. Of course, residential agents are handed rose-colored glasses at birth so there may be more optimism in the residential field.
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1 comment:
As a real estate exec I can say that until credit markets ease up, prices will fall for two reasons:
1) Debt is difficult to obtain and increasingly more costly thereby requiring a lower purchase price in order to maintain returns
2) The upheaval in the credit markets generally illustrate the problems on the demand side of the equation as well. Until financial firms can move on with the orderly process of borrowing, lending, buying, selling and advising then demand will slacken for both class A cbd space and ancillary businesses that service these financial firms (such as lawyers, IT,etc.).
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