Greenspan - "Housing slump to continue"

Discouraging news, but Mr. Greenspan is not necessarily always right. Two years ago, he predicted the worst is over. So, as always, you pays your money, ya take your chances. I do wish credit would return, though.

Asbestos? Yawn.

Dundee School, site of the new/temporary wiffleball field, turns out to be enjoying a bit of asbestos removal in the building. Parents of the wiffleballers are upset, according to the Greenwich Time article linked above. For once, the town is right - this kerfuffle is all much ado about nothing, spurred by ignorance, which breeds fear. My personal opinion is that the Congressional mandate to remove asbestos from all schools in the nation is a colossal waste of money that diverted billions of dollars to contractors when it could have been spent on books, new buildings or even increasing teachers' salaries (if you're going to waste money anyway ....)

But even if you think asbestos is right up there on the danger screen with Nalgene water bottles, an asbestos removal project is a pretty safe operation for those outside. The building is reverse-pressurized, keeping all dust inside a plastic sheet-sealed area, the workers all wear space suits, air is monitored and everyone has a grand time while being very well paid because it looks so dangerous. In fact, years ago I defended one of several young kids who were caught up in a federal sweep of unscrupulous asbestos removal contractors. these kids, acting under orders from their boss, skipped the pressurizing bit, shucked the spacesuits and basically just ripped everything up, ran a vacuum cleaner over the site and went home. After the busts, tests were done and, surprise! No harm, no foul. The kids got probation; their boss was sent off to cool his heels for a spell, if I recall.

Eco Hysteria

There's a movement afoot to ban bottled water, which seems dubious to me. A commentator below ("The Bag Lady is Singing) suggests that ecological awareness is a good thing, no matter how misguided a few zealots are, or sound. I might agree, if I didn't fear that the zealots were on their way to taking over our schools, our children and our lives. The NYT article linked above doesn't scare me - some of the comments appended to it do. Here, for instance, is one from exactly the type of person who sets my teeth on edge and tempts me to reach for my revolver:

"10. July 29th, 2008

Bottled water is THE. BIGGEST. MYTH. IN. HISTORY.
(next to WMDs, of course)
I’ve done some research on this topic. I believe anyone who frequently drinks only bottled water is a disgrace. THey are selfish folks who care nothing about their surroundings and the environment. THey don’t care that tons of plastic, and energy and oil are used to make bottled water (which in some cases, like Dasani, is filtered tap water already).
ANything that states “purified water” means it is TAP WATER that goes thru a Brita-like filter. So why pay for it?
Also, water like FIji, actually comes from Fiji - 7,000 miles away. That uses fuel for the airplane, plastic for the bottle, and tons of energy to make the darn thing. Workers are paid a few cents an hour to make this product, which you carelessly throw away.
ANyone who doesn’t care about the environment, or buys bottled water by the multi-pack, should be ashamed to call themselves American, or even a concerned human. People like this are the ones who have polluted the Earth.
Bottled water is for those occasions when you forget to take your own, or you have a sudden urge for water. That’s it. It’s an emergency product. Drinking bottled water is as stupid as breathing air from an oxygen tank 24 hours a day.
— Posted by irritated"

When not being irritated by water drinkers, this lady busies herself by slipping abusive messages under the windshield wipers of SUVs. You can't tell her to get a life because she thinks she already has one. Ugh.

Fill a tire, save the world

The Messiah has suggested that, if only we were to properly inflate our car tires, we'd save as much gasoline as that which could be produced by additional drilling. Even a moron like myself could detect that something was wrong with that figure so I did a little digging on the internet to see how much oil we're talking about. The result: a lot, from the drilling (28 billion barrels from ANWAR and off shore, minimum) and not a heck of a lot from driving on properly inflated tires (maybe 90,000,000 barrels annually). Figure 311 years to match the foregone production. For a more interesting take, check Professor Hinderacker's calculations in the link above. Be throws in oil shale, which I won't because oil shale development is going to require tons of water, a commodity scarcer even than oil in the Rockies, and figures we'll take 3,110 years to match what Obama wont drill for.

Even if you share my low opinion of the intelligence of former Harvard Law Review editors, is it possible that Obama is this dumb? I think not; I think he assumes that we are, we gun-clinging, religious fanatics who don't have the sense to live in an urban paradise like Chicago. He's trying to sell a bill of goods that seems painless: we switch a few light bulbs, check out our tire pressure every month, stop drinking bottled water and presto! The polar bears are safe. The question is, will Obama and his friends content themselves with passing out free light bulbs and tire gauges or are they preparing to shut down the western world's economy? If it were Al Gore about to be crowned emperor, I'd know exactly what we were in for. Obama remains a mystery, to me.

Anything can happen but don't count on it

156 Lockwood Road (on the corner of Sound Beach) in Riverside was originally listed in April 2007 for $5,995,000. Although I didn't give out its address in my column I did mention that, given its location on the two busiest streets in Riverside and Old Greenwich, I didn't think the seller would get that price. In fact, I thought he was friggin' loony, and neighbors who guessed which hose I was writing about agreed. It finally sold this past July for $4,100,000. Again, considering where it was built, I think the seller got lucky. Lesson is, if you're an out-of-town builder doing your first project here, don't let the magic name "Greenwich" blind you to the oldest of real estate maxims - location, location, location.

Flipping houses for fun and profit

It doesn't happen often these days, but 38 Highview Avenue in Old Greenwich was purchased by an investor couple I know (but don't, alas, represent) for $1.395M on August 16, 2004, and went to contract just 7 days after being listed this July with an asking price of $1.795M. I assume, based on it selling so quickly, that the winning bid was close to or at the full asking price. If so, that's not a bad result in this market, even knocking off 10% (a grossly pessimistic percentage) for commissions, taxes and all that. It probably doesn't hurt that the sellers are local, and one of them is both a town native and an excellent financial advisor. They picked the right property and did just fine. Nice work, if you can get it.

New vs. experienced agents

A couple of readers have asked how inquires about real estate are handled by brokerage firms here in town. Speaking only for the two or three firms whose policies I am (sort of) familiar with, here's how it works: a call comes in - Hallelujah! The Internet has killed 90% of such calls in the past five years - and is routed to whoever has "desk duty" that slot (usually, an agent holds down desk duty for 1/2 the day). In the pre-internet days, a caller stood a pretty good chance of finding an experienced agent on the line because that's where the business was - we'd run ads in local papers and those ubiquitous real estate gimme books found in supermarkets and would-be buyers had to call to find out the price (often) and the address (almost always). People volunteered for desk duty because they could count on receiving at least a couple of calls a session and, with luck, could convert the caller into a customer. That's not true today so a lot of us find we have better things to do with our time. Not all of us - I know of at least one very experienced, successful agent who still grabs the duty desk and does well at it. I personally will do it only as a matter of being a team player.

The bane of an office manager and those of us who have the misfortune of being within earshot of a telephone inquiry regarding one of our own listings is the agent who has never seen the property in question and can do no more than recite what's on the listing sheet, information that the caller, thanks to the Internet, already has. A lazy, experienced agent is no better in this regard than a new agent who hasn't troubled to personally view the inventory. If you're lucky, however, you'll find a real person who has seen the property, remembers its details and can speak English well enough to communicate that knowledge. If you find that you're getting along with that person, by all means make an appointment to see the house you called in on and perhaps others with her, regardless of whether she or he's a star performer or a novice. Enthusiasm, coupled with knowledge, will go a long way.

Two points: 1. Desk duty is very much not a "personality contest". Whoever wants to sign up for the task gets it and an ambitious, eager agent can find all the slots she wants. 2. Don't be (too) afraid of identifying yourself and disclosing what you're looking for. One reason the Internet became so poplar, I suspect, is that buyers can search for property anonymously without fear of being hounded to all ends of the earth by a starving, desperate agent. In my experience, that usually doesn't happen - we ask, politely, if you'd like us to email you additional information on the house and whether you'd like information on other houses that seem to meet your criteria, and that's it. If you decline, we don't have caller ID and won't telephone you at 2:00 a.m. to tell you about the perfect house that just appeared nor will we appear at your daughter's christening. I did witness one agent chase a walk-in out to the parking lot and act like a Pekingese with loving on her mind, but that was once - most of the rest of us are more restrained.

So feel free to call. You'll often find a good person on the other end of the line who can give you some valuable information, free and without further obligation. If you like what hear and feel comfortable with the agent, try out a relationship for a day. If not, there are at least 999 other agents here in Greenwich twiddling our thumbs and awaiting your call.

Here's a depressing opinion piece

The Wall Street Journal asks, Is John McCain Stupid?. The author concludes that he is. I'm sorry to say I agree. It probably doesn't matter, now that Obama is already fitting himself out for the dollar bill but it does seem a shame that we've ended up with a choice between a moron and a megalomaniac. of course, I have many friends in town who would respond, 'we've done the dolt, let's try the preening ward heeler." Fair enough, but I think we're heading for (more) trouble.

Here's a good value

8 Mansion Place is in the King Merit development off of King Street in western Greenwich. Not one of our most expensive neighborhoods but that means you can still get over an acre of land (1.19, in this case) and a nice house for far less than the average run-down Riverside house will cost you. This house, added to and renovated in 2005, has a ton of bedrooms, a really nice yard and a knock-you-dead solarium/family room all for just $1,499,000, down from its original June asking price of $1,699,000. Disclosure: it's a Raveis listing but long-term readers know I've never let that sort of thing affect my calling a house a good (or a bad) buy and I'm not doing that now. In a better market, I think the original price would have moved this place. Its current price is better still and, if the alacrity with which the seller has adjusted her price is any indication, i think you might be able to nibble away at the price even more. Unprepossessing from the front - it looks like the plain old ranch that it once was, this is one worth seeing, if you can adjust to or want to live out west. No highway noise, either, which is not the case in some houses over here. A very nice house, and one I liked a lot.

Cheesey or sleazy?

The 12 hour parking slots at Town Hall give you 2 hours for a quarter - a nice price if you need to park for awhile. But take a look at these meters and see whether you can tell how much time is left on the meter. I usually can't, which means that, even if I find an unexpired meter, I still have to slip in a quarter to ensure I don't get a $15.00 ticket. I don't know whether the scratches and condensation that prevent a reading are deliberate or just the result of poor maintenance, but it's annoying either way.

Going Down?

A few months ago I would have gagged at this price but now it's an encouraging signal, I hope, of where the gasoline market is heading - 20¢ less than yesterday! (Taken in Cos Cob at 6:56 this morning)

Hamilton Avenue Mess

I've refrained from delving into the fiasco involving our two schools (Ham Ave and Glenville) in our west because (a) I don't know much about what's going on and (b) http://www.Greenwichroundup.blogspot.com is already doing a fine job of coverage. I do know that, when the town and the YMCA, faced with huge cost overruns on their projects being run by Worth, denied any knowledge that there was even a whiff of impropriety concerning the firm, that a simple Google search turned up plenty. Try the link in the title and see for yourself.

Why wait 'til November? Let the coronation begin!

I don't think it's news that Obama supports the wacky bill that would grant native Hawaiians (defined as anyone who is, once was or would like to be known as Hawaiian) rights to most of the state, free education and a Smart car - that's pretty much a standard democrat platform. No, what I find disturbing is that the press - remember them? The hard-bitten, skeptical crowd of truth seekers who exposed fraud and pomposity without fear or favor has suspended even the faintest pretense of objectivity. I'm sure they'll recover once the man is ensconced in the White House, but by then it will be too late. Here's the money quote from the article linked above:

When Obama walked on stage at the McCormick Center, many journalists in the
audience leapt to their feet and applauded enthusiastically after being told not
to do so. During a two-minute break halfway through the event, which was
broadcast live on CNN, journalists ran to the stage to snap photos of
Obama.

Where's the Sitemeter?
The little Sitemeter that's usually posted on the right is missing today, not because I'm ashamed of my modest readership (which in fact is building very nicely) but because the service that provides it is preparing to upgrade things. Their official explanation:

"For the next 30 - 45 days we will be testing our servers and databases in preparation for the launch of our new SiteMeter platform. If you are currently using our NoScript tag (plain HTML) the little SiteMeter icon that appears on the pages where you have pasted our tag may disappear. Please rest ... " [. - you get the picture - ed]

When it's available, the Sitemeter is fascinating, at least to me. I have one reader who logs on from Germany every day - don't know why, don't know who - and another from Peking. The Internet's a thing of wonder. The meter is public, so when it reappears, click on it if you're interested.

$200 Million in campaign contributions and counting

The washington Post (above) has examined Fannie Mae's giving history and the results don't bode well for us taxpayers no matter who wins this year's election.

Greenwich Time Links

Here's a link (click on title above) to one of the Greenwich Time articles on the egg tossing incident. We're still working on the others.

Here's a great comment on selecting an agent that makes a lot of sense (because I didn't write it!). I didn't want it to get lost in the shuffle so I reprint it here.

"Though I agree with some of the techniques Chris mentions in scoping out the "better" agents, I have to say that elevating this town's handful of good brokers to a level of consummate competency is unfair.I had used a couple of the "power" brokers in Greenwich on different occasions and found them to be too busy and/or scattered to pay me the kind of attention that I felt I deserved. They have too many listings and clients to manage with equal effectiveness. I eventually went with a lesser-known, non-veteran agent who has been wonderful. She appears to be among a large group of serious agents in Greenwich who are hungry for business but seem to be edged out by the veteran agents who rule the market -- just because of their reputations. And not all of these veterans have favorable reputations on the street. I'd rather deal with someone who is smart and sincerely a hard-worker (even if he/she is not a veteran) rather than a tired, pushy, elitist."

Too bad greenwich doesn't permit for sale signs by Realtors. This one makes sense.

A quiet morning, but check out the comments section - there are a number of discussions going on.

I suppose we can talk about the latest tale of wayward boys causing trouble at the high school. According to the Greenwich Time's sanitized version, five "high school football players" tossed eggs at a coach's car over the course of several nights. The coach eventually took down their license number and handed it over to the police, then resigned presumably, the GT would have us believe, out of disappointment over the actions of his players. The true story or I should say, the rumored story, is, as usual with our local paper, far more interesting.

According to rumors, and some of these originate from people who should know, the egging crew included two co-captains of the team and they all pelted the car four nights running. The coach lost his cool and lay await for them on the fourth night, then engaged them in a high speed car chase across town to Byram or, if you prefer, across the Tappen Zee Bridge. Either way, he called off the pursuit, turned in the license plate number and was then fired from his coaching duties because his reckless actions had endangered the lives of the kids (who cares?) and any innocent by-standers who might have wandered into his path (that I do care about).

The kids, again rumor has it, although the school denies it, were ordered to run some laps and the matter would have ended there with one fired coach and five sweaty kids. But grumbling arose over the lack of punishment - the kids will continue playing with the team, for instance - and the perceived special treatment accorded star athletes. So yesterday our Superintendent announced a new round of punishment will be meted out, albeit without specifying what that punishment will be. I'd guess it will be a form of "super secret double probation" but what I'd like to see, just to make clear that budding pigskin tossers are treated no better than chair kickers, is them marched to the center of the football field, Tasered three times and then arrested and held on $50,000 bail. Now that would send (some kind of) a message.

(no links this morning, for reasons known only to God and Blogger.com. - if either of them deigns to send me a fix, I'll have links in this post later)

Who knew a pool could kill?

Greenwich Time reports that the president of Shoreline Pools claims he never knew that a child could be sucked into a drain and injured, let alone killed. Well gee, sir, isn't that why they put drain covers on the things in the first place? It's a tragedy that the one you installed fell off, but its presence in the first place implies that you had some sense that danger lurked within.

But as bad or grossly negligent as Shoreline Pool's actions were, I do sympathise with the man's other argument: what was the Town of Greenwich's building department doing when it inspected this pool and granted it a certificate of occupancy? That the town gives its approval does not excuse Shoreline, but the parents of Zachary Cohn were let down twice, once by Shoreline and again by our town. They are now suing both the town and Shoreline and I shudder for my pocket book. If a fat dentist can turn a broken leg into $6,000,000 by merely waving the red flag of "Greenwich" in front of a Bridgeport jury, what will happen when another jury is presented with real culpability and the wrongful death of a beloved child?