Hey, Milbank! Here's how to move those $6 million condos! (Courtesy NYT)
Bring in $1,000 lap dancers
Harry Reid is boring - this is exciting, in a sick sort of way. Dow below 9000
2 years ago
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Oh Geeze, now even PBS's Ray Suarez is climbing onto the racism wagon.
And I used to like him, too.
O.K. - questions about terrorist Bill Ayers, out. Inexperience, out. Political programs, out. Cronyism with Chicago pols, out. Campaign contributions from Fannie Mae and its CEOs, out. I got all that - is there anything we can question about this gifted, caring man without exposing ourselves as racists?
I didn't think so.
And I used to like him, too.
Opinions about Obama's inexperience, his childhood in Indonesia, and the persistent but untrue rumors of him being Muslim are stand-ins for something his detractors cannot admit, Suarez said.[emphasis added]
O.K. - questions about terrorist Bill Ayers, out. Inexperience, out. Political programs, out. Cronyism with Chicago pols, out. Campaign contributions from Fannie Mae and its CEOs, out. I got all that - is there anything we can question about this gifted, caring man without exposing ourselves as racists?
I didn't think so.
(Mr. and Mrs. Frank Gifforddining at Mr. Fountain's house)
If Kathie Lee Griffith didn't exist, would the Greenwich Post?
Lord knows, we all adore Kathie Lee, and we certainly want to know if she's spotted at CVS, McDonalds, or the Tobacconist of Greenwich, but is there nothing else to report on in this town? Budgets? Inflated police union contracts? School Board hi jinks? Nope, says the Post. No link, because the Post can't link its articles, but here's a quote:
Scene ... Riverside resident and Today co-host Kathie Lee Gifford was seen having lunch at Terra Ristorante on Greenwich Avenue on Friday afternoon.That's nice to know, isn't it?
SpindletopWow! A contract! Sort of, maybe.
4 Old Round Hill Lane was reported today as under contract, which must be a relief to its builder who first placed it for sale in May, 2006 at $14.5 million. Last asking price was $10.995 million and I think we can guess it went for less than that. But, while the contract was officially posted today, it was signed on September 3rd, a long, long time ago, far, far away and in a deteriorating but still different market from the present.
So much for that $25 billion, bar keep. Add it to my tab.
GM sales slump, stock price plummets
Update: Stock price is lowest since springtime, 1950. Would you lend money to a company like this? You just did.
384 Round Hill Road One good thing about a dead market
This 1745 house on 6 + acres of meadows and lawns is being marketed as land or residential at, naturally, the same price: $4,850,000. In a better market it might have been snapped up by a builder by now but it hasn't. I don't happen to have this kind of money around but if you do, and want to save this house, here's your chance. And, because of current market conditions, you probably have some time to do so.
Confusing moments in advertising
Priced at $4.55 million in November of last year, this house has slowly drifted downward, changing agents as it sank. Today it's back as a "new" listing (new after the original listing expired yesterday) at a "new" price (same as the last old price) of $3.6 million. Here's the part I don't get: the listing says,
UNBELIEVABLE VALUE, INVITATION TO BRING ALL OFFERS.
Isn't "unbelievable value" undercut a bit by following with "bring all offers"? I say, make up your mind.
Timber? The Royal Bank of Scotland's stock is down 82%. CEO Fred Goodwin, who got the bank into this disaster, is on his way out:
``His credibility is shot to bits,'' said Ken Murray, CEO of Blue Planet Investment Management in Edinburgh, where RBS also is based. He has no holdings in any U.K. banks. ``Acquisitions are a risky business and they cost a lot of chief executives their jobs. If you get it wrong, you've got to go.''But what's going to happen with RBS's still uncompleted, 600,000 square foot headquarters in Stamford? The state piled a lot of our money into this deal in anticipation of 3,000 new jobs, $204 million in tax revenue over ten years and $1-2 million per year in City property taxes. Sure hope neither budget, state or municipal, was counting on that because if the stock's worth nothing, I doubt the headquarters will be all that busy.
Update: It was a bit more than "a lot of our money" diverted to RBS. Connecticut gave them $100 million in tax credits . I hope they appreciate it.
Update (10/11/08): Britain to take control of RBS Monday. I wonder if the Queen will want an office building in Stamford?
Harry Reid greets American publicHarry Reid says Radio Host is racist for tying Obama to Fannie Mae Exec., Franklin Raines
At least one of my readers thinks that there is a racist opposition to her candidate, Barack Obama. Who knows? She may be right. What I posted earlier is that it's getting boring to hear, endlessly that McCain, Palin and anyone else who opposes the Messiah does so because of racist hatred. An ad against Obama's friend and advisor, disgraced, fired and fined Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines? Racist. Another ad, released 12 hours later, against Obama friend and advisor, disgraced, fired and fined Fannie Mae CEO Jim Johnson? Silence on that one, because Johnson is white. This is stupid. And tiresome.
Obama only served 186 days in the US Senate before beginning his campaign yet he's already second in campaign contributions received from Raines and Johnson's personal piggy bank, Fannie Mae (our own Chris Dodd leads the hogs at the trough, but heck, he's had years to stretch out his hand). Google Obama and contributions from Raines and you'll see that Raines was doling out cash to Obama at least as early as 2004, when Obama was a lowly state senator in Illinois. So is it fair to assert a link between Raines and Obama? I think so. If you disagree, that doesn't make me a racist.
Open House Report
Nothing to report. A few retreads, still over-priced and .... I did see one last Tuesday that was of note because its price was so grossly off the mark. Everything conspired against it: wrong section of town, crowded in with its neighbors, parking on one side and the front entrance all the way around the house (technically, that would be half-way around the house, but you get my meaning) and then that price. I won't blame the seller because it was her agent who crowed, "it's priced to sell". It certainly isn't, and if the agent believes her own hype, the market has a rude surprise in store.
Nothing to report. A few retreads, still over-priced and .... I did see one last Tuesday that was of note because its price was so grossly off the mark. Everything conspired against it: wrong section of town, crowded in with its neighbors, parking on one side and the front entrance all the way around the house (technically, that would be half-way around the house, but you get my meaning) and then that price. I won't blame the seller because it was her agent who crowed, "it's priced to sell". It certainly isn't, and if the agent believes her own hype, the market has a rude surprise in store.
Open House Tour Pet Peeves
Only two, actually. Number one is agents who schedule an open house for, say, 11:00 AM and fail to show up to open the place. In the past, my time was valuable and gas was cheap. Now that's reversed but I still won't loop back later in the day to see if the agent decided to work for a living.
Okay, that's always the agent's fault. Sellers can also set blood boiling by insisting that their agent schedule a broker open house on the wrong day. North Street and west: Tuesdays. East of North Street, Thursdays. We're just not going to drive to, say, Sheephill Road in Old Greenwich when we're in Byram, so the seller is annoying his agent by wasting her time and accomplishing nothing: no one will be there. If a particular day is inconvenient, hold your open house another week. Or don't expect any agents to view your house, because it won't happen.
Only two, actually. Number one is agents who schedule an open house for, say, 11:00 AM and fail to show up to open the place. In the past, my time was valuable and gas was cheap. Now that's reversed but I still won't loop back later in the day to see if the agent decided to work for a living.
Okay, that's always the agent's fault. Sellers can also set blood boiling by insisting that their agent schedule a broker open house on the wrong day. North Street and west: Tuesdays. East of North Street, Thursdays. We're just not going to drive to, say, Sheephill Road in Old Greenwich when we're in Byram, so the seller is annoying his agent by wasting her time and accomplishing nothing: no one will be there. If a particular day is inconvenient, hold your open house another week. Or don't expect any agents to view your house, because it won't happen.
65 Patterson Ave.At the risk of seeming downbeat
you're looking at the only house to go to contract in all of Greenwich this week. This property has been on the market since November 2007 and was priced then at $3.595 million. It was dropped to $3.295 million in April and didn't sell, so it wouldn't surprise me to learn that it's selling for less than that.
19 DesireeBig enough?
Price cut, that is. This house was purchased for $4.9 million back in April, 2004 and returned to market this April at $5.595. It hasn't sold so today it was reduced to $5.375. Call me crazy, but I don't think that's enough of a slicing to attract buyers who were turned off by its original price. What I mean is, if someone liked the house and the area it's in but didn't like its price, an offer of $5.375 would seem expected. The fact that no one did make such an offer makes me suspect that dropping it to that level is futile. If the seller knows that, and is hoping for and will accept an offer below $5.375, now is the time to have the price reflect that.
317 Stanwich RdWell now, here's a price reduction
Original price, back in January, $3.850. Today, reduced to $2.650 million. This drop is not entirely due to current market conditions; in my own opinion, the back lot location, cheek-by-jowl with two half-developed building lots, and the quirky layout of the house itself might have suggested an original opening price closer to where it is now, but again, that's my opinion. And I really liked the house, I just doubted that the typical Greenwich home buyer would share my taste. Regardless of all that, this price reduction is strong evidence that at least one owner "gets it". Nice to see.
Another rent vs. buy calculator
A reader sent me this link.
I tried it and it's got a cool sliding calculation tool that let's you change assumptions on the fly. I like it.
A reader sent me this link.
I tried it and it's got a cool sliding calculation tool that let's you change assumptions on the fly. I like it.
A Great Wailing and Gnashing of TeethJoe Pisani, former editor of Greenwich Time and now an occasional blogger at OurGreenwich.com has posted a very sad story about his daughter, McDonalds, Big Mac's and Haiti. At least I think it's sad; I couldn't really understand much of it except for the part that liberal guilt is a good thing. But this passage puzzles me:
A few minutes later, she came out, paper bag in hand, and got into the car, stinking of fast food, with a troubled look on her face.
What stunk of bad food? The daughter, the car or the paper sack?
I only ask because, like, he was an editor, you know?
Hey, Dickie - can I get an advance on my allowance?
UBS's general Counsel, David Aufhauser, agrees to disgorge $6.5 million in profits from illegal insider trading. Aufhauser, who presumably counseled UBS that its sales of mortgage rated securities was entirely ethical and legal (advice that cost it a whole bunch of billions of dollars in restitution earlier this year), turns out to have been trading on inside information. You may find that disturbing but rest assured; according to his bio, he's a recipient of the Treasury Department's highest honor, the "Alexander Hamilton Award". Phew! For a moment there, I was worried that we might have crooks on Wall Street.
And more local politics
The Hamilton Avenue School construction project continues to fall apart, with every day bringing a new announcement of further delays and more money required for completion. Meanwhile, school test scores drop, the students are being ill-served and no one will take responsibility.
The First Selectman and his branch of our local government pretty much get a pass on this because, under our town's charter, the School Board is a separate fiefdom. It owns and pretends to maintain our schools, initiates and oversees disasters like the Hamilton Ave. project and selects all our school administrators and teachers. To suggest that the Board has completely failed to execute any of its responsibilities is to understate the problem badly. And for that failure, we can look to the two governing political parties running Greenwich.
Under the charter they created, Democrats and Republicans control the School Board by holding the exclusive power to nominate candidates. They could, if they wished, each nominate four candidates and give the town's voters a choice - a limited choice because, again under the system they set up, each party is guaranteed two seats on the four-person board. But they won't. Two candidates from each party are "nominated" - appointed would be a more accurate term - and on Election Day, you're free to pull the lever for those four or not - it makes no difference in to the result.
The same machinations are used to fill the BET but, usually, the BET runs efficiently and competently and there's not much of an outcry for change. The School Board is clearly an institution in serious need of reform; we could start by demanding that the Democrats and Republicans give us a choice of who serves; then we should perhaps consider why it is we've allowed these two parties to run our town.
The Hamilton Avenue School construction project continues to fall apart, with every day bringing a new announcement of further delays and more money required for completion. Meanwhile, school test scores drop, the students are being ill-served and no one will take responsibility.
The First Selectman and his branch of our local government pretty much get a pass on this because, under our town's charter, the School Board is a separate fiefdom. It owns and pretends to maintain our schools, initiates and oversees disasters like the Hamilton Ave. project and selects all our school administrators and teachers. To suggest that the Board has completely failed to execute any of its responsibilities is to understate the problem badly. And for that failure, we can look to the two governing political parties running Greenwich.
Under the charter they created, Democrats and Republicans control the School Board by holding the exclusive power to nominate candidates. They could, if they wished, each nominate four candidates and give the town's voters a choice - a limited choice because, again under the system they set up, each party is guaranteed two seats on the four-person board. But they won't. Two candidates from each party are "nominated" - appointed would be a more accurate term - and on Election Day, you're free to pull the lever for those four or not - it makes no difference in to the result.
The same machinations are used to fill the BET but, usually, the BET runs efficiently and competently and there's not much of an outcry for change. The School Board is clearly an institution in serious need of reform; we could start by demanding that the Democrats and Republicans give us a choice of who serves; then we should perhaps consider why it is we've allowed these two parties to run our town.
Taxes
There's a letter printed in today's Greenwich Time (no link because that paper's pathetic website can't be bothered to put it up) from a reader who not only wants higher taxes imposed on all of us but implies that the Founding Fathers would, too. I wasn't particularly surprised at the writer's historical and economic ignorance - those qualities are prerequisites to breaking out in print at GT - but I was a little dismayed when I turned to the paper's coverage of the debate between our two vying candidates for State Rep, Ed Krumich and Fred Camillo. Krumeich's answer to all our problems, at least according to the article, was for more state spending.
Now either Krumich was being disingenuous - which I don't believe; Ed's a lawyer, for heaven's sake! - or he truly doesn't know that Greenwich already sends $600 million a year to Hartford and gets $5 million back. A call for additional state spending, therefore, is actually a demand that Greenwich be taxed even more harshly. Bridgeport certainly isn't going to ante up, that's for sure.
Krumich's other argument for being sent to Hartford is that, as a Democrat, he'll be listened to. That seems to me to be a very bad thing. I think he should stick to writing stupid letters to the Editor of Greenwich Time under his pen name.
There's a letter printed in today's Greenwich Time (no link because that paper's pathetic website can't be bothered to put it up) from a reader who not only wants higher taxes imposed on all of us but implies that the Founding Fathers would, too. I wasn't particularly surprised at the writer's historical and economic ignorance - those qualities are prerequisites to breaking out in print at GT - but I was a little dismayed when I turned to the paper's coverage of the debate between our two vying candidates for State Rep, Ed Krumich and Fred Camillo. Krumeich's answer to all our problems, at least according to the article, was for more state spending.
Now either Krumich was being disingenuous - which I don't believe; Ed's a lawyer, for heaven's sake! - or he truly doesn't know that Greenwich already sends $600 million a year to Hartford and gets $5 million back. A call for additional state spending, therefore, is actually a demand that Greenwich be taxed even more harshly. Bridgeport certainly isn't going to ante up, that's for sure.
Krumich's other argument for being sent to Hartford is that, as a Democrat, he'll be listened to. That seems to me to be a very bad thing. I think he should stick to writing stupid letters to the Editor of Greenwich Time under his pen name.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Did you think we'd forgotten the Black Knight? Hah!
The Somali pirates are close to negotiating a deal with Ukraine. they'll get $8 million in U.S. $100 dollar bills and go away. The U.S. Navy says its only concern is that the tanks the ship is carrying not fall into the wrong hands [Ed.: are there any right hands for tanks in Africa?] and the pirates don't care about tanks:"we only want money", says their leader, the Black Knight himself.
That may work for the Navy but I think it's a lousy idea to fund pirates with loot so they can buy better pirate ships and better arms with which to continue their pirate days. But I'm just an uninformed civilian, so I'll shut up.
The Somali pirates are close to negotiating a deal with Ukraine. they'll get $8 million in U.S. $100 dollar bills and go away. The U.S. Navy says its only concern is that the tanks the ship is carrying not fall into the wrong hands [Ed.: are there any right hands for tanks in Africa?] and the pirates don't care about tanks:"we only want money", says their leader, the Black Knight himself.
That may work for the Navy but I think it's a lousy idea to fund pirates with loot so they can buy better pirate ships and better arms with which to continue their pirate days. But I'm just an uninformed civilian, so I'll shut up.
Why are we doing this?
Fed to give AIG an additional $37.8 billion. That's over and above the $85 billion we've already dished out. Why stop at AIG or, better question, why did we start down this road at all?
Fed to give AIG an additional $37.8 billion. That's over and above the $85 billion we've already dished out. Why stop at AIG or, better question, why did we start down this road at all?
Rent vs. Buy Calculator
Somewhere buried in the comments a reader asked if there were an easy way to figure the comparative advantages of renting vs. buying. I can't vouch for it because I just Googled the term and am posting what came up (yes, I'm lazy this time of evening) but here's Yahoo's answer to that question. Continuing my theme of laziness, please try it and let me know if it works. Thanks.
Update: Okay, I'm not as tired as I thought I was, so I tossed some numbers into the calculator and looked at renting for $6,000 per month vs buying for $2.1 million assuming a 30 year mtg with a 15 year ownership or rental span. The result (you can see the other assumptions I plugged in at the link) is that, absent any appreciation over the years, you save (a lot of) money renting instead of buying
The kicker here is no appreciation. I'd have felt confident in years past tossing in a 5% per year figure and that would swing things in the buyer's favor, but now? Who knows?
Somewhere buried in the comments a reader asked if there were an easy way to figure the comparative advantages of renting vs. buying. I can't vouch for it because I just Googled the term and am posting what came up (yes, I'm lazy this time of evening) but here's Yahoo's answer to that question. Continuing my theme of laziness, please try it and let me know if it works. Thanks.
Update: Okay, I'm not as tired as I thought I was, so I tossed some numbers into the calculator and looked at renting for $6,000 per month vs buying for $2.1 million assuming a 30 year mtg with a 15 year ownership or rental span. The result (you can see the other assumptions I plugged in at the link) is that, absent any appreciation over the years, you save (a lot of) money renting instead of buying
The kicker here is no appreciation. I'd have felt confident in years past tossing in a 5% per year figure and that would swing things in the buyer's favor, but now? Who knows?
7 Orchard DriveThis is getting interesting
This property in Milbrook sold for $3.780 million in September 2004. The new owners returned it to the market in May of '06 as land or residence and asked $4.895. That hasn't worked so well and it's gradually dropped in price until today it's being offered for $3.295. I don't know if, in this market, that will finally move the place, but if you're looking for the difference between 2004's market and 2008's, this is the place to start.
They're fattened on human breast milk, so why is PETA in such an uproar over a simple Peruvian cat eating festival?
This is becoming so boring
A black Congressman calls Governor Palin a racist. She's married to an Eskimo, for gosh sakes! but she disagrees with the anointed one, and that moves her into the racist camp. I'm very much afraid that Obama will win and we're in for years of this, every time someone balks at El Presidente's plans for our future.
A black Congressman calls Governor Palin a racist. She's married to an Eskimo, for gosh sakes! but she disagrees with the anointed one, and that moves her into the racist camp. I'm very much afraid that Obama will win and we're in for years of this, every time someone balks at El Presidente's plans for our future.
Swedish Housewife Splitting a WalrusOkay, the earlier posting was unfair
After brashly stating that there were no writers in Sweden, your author thought to check out Wikipedia to see if that was true. It was not. There are
144 writers in that blighted land ,out of a population of 9,192,088. There would be more, but the State Dispensary ran out of crayons.
Better news?
Another link supplied by a reader: Home Sales up Sharply Nationwide. Any good news is welcome, of course, but a lot of these sales are generated because of drastic price cuts by the new owner (a bank) or a desperate seller. Still, a sale's a sale and accomplishes at least two things: provides a house to someone who perhaps couldn't afford one last year; and clears out inventory. If you wonder why Greenwich sales are dead dead dead, start by looking at pricing.
Another link supplied by a reader: Home Sales up Sharply Nationwide. Any good news is welcome, of course, but a lot of these sales are generated because of drastic price cuts by the new owner (a bank) or a desperate seller. Still, a sale's a sale and accomplishes at least two things: provides a house to someone who perhaps couldn't afford one last year; and clears out inventory. If you wonder why Greenwich sales are dead dead dead, start by looking at pricing.
Chewing MukluksIt's always something, eh?
Troubles flow across the frozen waters up north and now Iceland is on verge of collapse.
The country's Prime Minister isn't all that worried. "Okay, so international banking hasn't worked so good," said leader Geir Haarde. "We'll just move to Sweden and turn out books. I understand there's a shortage of writers there."
Good for you, Geir - keep your spirits up and your gumption at full throttle.
Ouch
A reader sent me this link to the WSJ 1 in 6 Homeowners "Under Water". It's true, as I noted a couple of weeks ago, that even the Greenwich MLS has seen fit to add the category, "short sale" to its listing forms, so we're not going unscathed here in fair Greenwich. I'll point out that the percentage of investors whose IRAs and pension plans are under water is probably greater than 1 in 6. And you can't live under a bond certificate, so keep those mortgage payments current.
A reader sent me this link to the WSJ 1 in 6 Homeowners "Under Water". It's true, as I noted a couple of weeks ago, that even the Greenwich MLS has seen fit to add the category, "short sale" to its listing forms, so we're not going unscathed here in fair Greenwich. I'll point out that the percentage of investors whose IRAs and pension plans are under water is probably greater than 1 in 6. And you can't live under a bond certificate, so keep those mortgage payments current.
Dead cats bouncingOkay, you've been warned
Reader CEA warns of the "don't try to catch a falling knife" adage and that brings to mind this one: even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from a sufficient height. So maybe you don't want to buy stocks right now. But Warren Buffet does - selectively, to be sure - and he's old enough and has experienced enough to have coined all these adages in the first place.
Wounded Elk?
Says here that Hartford Insurance is next for the chopping block. Derivatives, apparently.
Downtown Condos
A reader who is contemplating selling her home in the Back Country and relocating downtown asked about condominiums. No price range was specified so I ran a search for units between $1.5 million and $3.0 million, just to see what's out there. It's not too bad (below $1.5 doesn't yield all that much; above $3.0, the choice expands considerably).
First, some personal prejudices and opinions: I don't like units too far off Greenwich Avenue for older people. Idar Court, for instance, off of Field Point Road, has some nice, very large units, but it's a hike if you're of a certain age. Same goes for hills. And I'm wary of two-unit condo townhouses because, if one owner defaults - these days, it could happen - the other owner is left holding the bag. A larger complex spreads the risk around.
That out of the way, I think my favorite condominium project for older people is 40 West Elm Street. An easy walk (or jog, if the elder is spry) to the Avenue, plus a doorman, elevators and covered, secure parking, all with, depending on the unit's location, a spectacular view across Long Island Sound. There's one 2 bedroom there currently listed for $2.5 million, which reflects at least one price reduction. Great view, great unit. Others come on pretty regularly and they sell well - it's a nice place.
One Milbank, that brick edifice at the intersection of Milbank and the Post Road, isn't as close to Greenwich Avenue but it's not too bad and the units are pretty nice inside. Right now, two bedrooms range from $1.9 to $2.9 (and maybe more - I limited my search, remember?).
20 Church Street's a good location though the building isn't in the same league as 40 W. Elm. But the prices reflect that: there's a 2 bedroom listed now for $1.475.
The "Nantucket" on Church Street isn't a huge project but the location's convenient and its units relatively new. Renovated units fetch more than the untouched ones, obviously, but I've always thought the prices reflected a pretty good value.
Putnam Park can be alright, especially if you're looking at a renovated unit. I worry about the age of the complex, however (perhaps unnecessarily; I have no knowledge of what the management has done to renovate and upgrade the infrastructure) but it has very attractive prices, generally well below a million.
So those are some possibilities. If readers have specific price ranges in mind, send them along and I'll do my best to opine on them. If you prefer to keep the specifics of your request private alert me to that and I'll post a general reply or email you directly, your choice.
A reader who is contemplating selling her home in the Back Country and relocating downtown asked about condominiums. No price range was specified so I ran a search for units between $1.5 million and $3.0 million, just to see what's out there. It's not too bad (below $1.5 doesn't yield all that much; above $3.0, the choice expands considerably).
First, some personal prejudices and opinions: I don't like units too far off Greenwich Avenue for older people. Idar Court, for instance, off of Field Point Road, has some nice, very large units, but it's a hike if you're of a certain age. Same goes for hills. And I'm wary of two-unit condo townhouses because, if one owner defaults - these days, it could happen - the other owner is left holding the bag. A larger complex spreads the risk around.
That out of the way, I think my favorite condominium project for older people is 40 West Elm Street. An easy walk (or jog, if the elder is spry) to the Avenue, plus a doorman, elevators and covered, secure parking, all with, depending on the unit's location, a spectacular view across Long Island Sound. There's one 2 bedroom there currently listed for $2.5 million, which reflects at least one price reduction. Great view, great unit. Others come on pretty regularly and they sell well - it's a nice place.
One Milbank, that brick edifice at the intersection of Milbank and the Post Road, isn't as close to Greenwich Avenue but it's not too bad and the units are pretty nice inside. Right now, two bedrooms range from $1.9 to $2.9 (and maybe more - I limited my search, remember?).
20 Church Street's a good location though the building isn't in the same league as 40 W. Elm. But the prices reflect that: there's a 2 bedroom listed now for $1.475.
The "Nantucket" on Church Street isn't a huge project but the location's convenient and its units relatively new. Renovated units fetch more than the untouched ones, obviously, but I've always thought the prices reflected a pretty good value.
Putnam Park can be alright, especially if you're looking at a renovated unit. I worry about the age of the complex, however (perhaps unnecessarily; I have no knowledge of what the management has done to renovate and upgrade the infrastructure) but it has very attractive prices, generally well below a million.
So those are some possibilities. If readers have specific price ranges in mind, send them along and I'll do my best to opine on them. If you prefer to keep the specifics of your request private alert me to that and I'll post a general reply or email you directly, your choice.
Time to buy stocks?
There's an adage on Wall Street that says, more or less, "when your mother in law is selling stocks, it's time to buy". This article in the Times today suggests that that time may have come. I witnessed the inverse of this adage when, at the height of the tech boom, my girl friend and I stopped in a deli for coffee after a day of X-Country skiing at Pound Ridge. There in rural Pound Ridge we noticed the counterman, a fellow who barely spoke English, glued to the CNN Business channel, monitoring his investments. "If you own any tech stocks," I warned my friend,"it's time to sell." When coffee dispensers know that the stock market is going to make them rich, you don't want to share that dream.
Which is all a long way of pointing out that when everyone in the market is convinced of one thing, a smart investor might consider the contrarian view (I'd say something about Global Warming here, but I think I'll give that a rest). When this Kramer guy is screaming "sell!" on national television, when the Time's reporter finds people whose mothers in law are fleeing stocks, when "everyone" is convinced that worse is coming, the "irrational exuberance" may have been wrung out of the market and prices may finally be getting real. I haven't noticed that phenomenon among Greenwich real estate sellers, yet, but perhaps it's on the horizon. In which case, be ready.
There's an adage on Wall Street that says, more or less, "when your mother in law is selling stocks, it's time to buy". This article in the Times today suggests that that time may have come. I witnessed the inverse of this adage when, at the height of the tech boom, my girl friend and I stopped in a deli for coffee after a day of X-Country skiing at Pound Ridge. There in rural Pound Ridge we noticed the counterman, a fellow who barely spoke English, glued to the CNN Business channel, monitoring his investments. "If you own any tech stocks," I warned my friend,"it's time to sell." When coffee dispensers know that the stock market is going to make them rich, you don't want to share that dream.
Which is all a long way of pointing out that when everyone in the market is convinced of one thing, a smart investor might consider the contrarian view (I'd say something about Global Warming here, but I think I'll give that a rest). When this Kramer guy is screaming "sell!" on national television, when the Time's reporter finds people whose mothers in law are fleeing stocks, when "everyone" is convinced that worse is coming, the "irrational exuberance" may have been wrung out of the market and prices may finally be getting real. I haven't noticed that phenomenon among Greenwich real estate sellers, yet, but perhaps it's on the horizon. In which case, be ready.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Attack of the Booboise
I'm late to the story, but apparently some Swede in charge of handing out literary prizes just dissed America and its writers.
Horace Engdahl is permanent secretary of the Swedish Academy, the body which chooses the Nobel Prize for literature. In an interview with an American journalist this week, he dismissed the writing of the US – the land of Melville, Hemingway and Fitzgerald – as "too isolated, too insular". "They don't translate [foreign books] enough and don't really participate in the big dialogue of literature," he said. "That ignorance is restraining."
A Swede said that? A Swede?! Has anyone in the history of the world ever heard of a Swedish writer? Can they write? That's one attempting the act in the upper left hand corner; he's not doing so well. Have they done anything notable in the past 1,000 years except rape, pillage and plunder the English Isles and invade Russia, where they discovered the use of booze and took (all of) it back with them? Their cars rust, their music reached no higher than Abba before quickly degenerating back to sing alongs with Laplanders, and their national cuisine is limited to skimpy little pancakes smothered in sour Lingonberries. Nobel himself had to hie off to Miami to be tutored by Thomas Edison and Eli Whitney on the fine art of making dynamite and barely made it back to the frozen tundra without blowing himself and his raft to pieces.
And what's all this about no great American writers? Has this fellow never heard of Zayne Grey? Tom Clancy? Harold Eff'in Robbins? Jerk.
My image of a Swede is a large, blocky lout, sprawled idly in an igloo while his dirty little brood of ragamuffins chews his frozen mukluks into usable form so that he can stumble over to Sven's for a night of debauchery. If he writes at all it's during the annual appeal for pardons from the King, which requires only, I am informed, an X from the miscreant himself and a hoof print signifying assent from the violated reindeer. Picture the aspiring pardonee now, struggling to see by the dim, flickering light of a seal blubber lamp, asking his brutish wife how to draw a picture of the aquavit bottle that caused all the trouble to begin with. How sad.
Look - God love'em, who can resist a s Swede choking down a lump of lye-soaked lutefisk? Who wouldn't find the little square heads adorable in a retarded, goofy kind of way? But a Swede pretending to be a literary critic? Sounds very much like Samuel Johnson's observation so long ago: "Sir, a woman's preaching is like a dog's walking on his hind legs. It is not done well; but you are surprised to find it done at all."
Gimme a break.
Update: And who needs the Nobel prize anyway, when ig-Nobel Awards are here?
Just how bad is this housing market?
A reader writes:
"Thought you would like an interesting statistic from a friend who is a mortgage broker. In September he and his partner closed 6 loans between them. Their best months of 2005 they were closing 120-130...EACH. It is tough slogging for a lot of people these days."
Speaking with real estate attorneys and title searchers, I'd say they're not having any fun either.
A reader writes:
"Thought you would like an interesting statistic from a friend who is a mortgage broker. In September he and his partner closed 6 loans between them. Their best months of 2005 they were closing 120-130...EACH. It is tough slogging for a lot of people these days."
Speaking with real estate attorneys and title searchers, I'd say they're not having any fun either.
As bad as 2004!
This chart shows that the Dow has fallen from almost 14,000 in July to 9,500 today. That's scary, but we turn out to be back where we were four years ago. If you didn't buy this year, how bad is that?
This chart shows that the Dow has fallen from almost 14,000 in July to 9,500 today. That's scary, but we turn out to be back where we were four years ago. If you didn't buy this year, how bad is that?
Demolition of 17 Brookside Drive
A reader asked about this so I stopped by to look. Certainly looks as though someone's planning to tear the place down. I couldn't find the tax card for 17 Brookside on line (curious) but it would seem to be a circa 1920's mansion which, these days, isn't in vogue. The demolition sign posted in front certainly doesn't comply with our town ordinance, which states (Exhibit B to the permit) that the sign identify the age of the building, contact information, etc. This one just says "Demolition" and calls it a day. It's not my job, but someone who objects to the destruction of this building can probably delay the inevitable by complaining to the Building Department and having them force the builder to start over again, with a proper sign that complies with the regulation. But there's no stopping it permanently.
Relax, Dickie, it's nothing personal
Scientists say urge to punish is instinctual.
“The urge to take revenge or punish cheaters,” said Michael McCullough, a professor of psychology at the University of Miami and author of the book “Beyond Revenge: The Evolution of the Forgiveness Instinct,” “is not a disease or toxin or sign that something has gone wrong. From the point of view of evolution, it’s not a problem but a solution.
The downside of these instincts, Dr. McCullough added, “is that they often promote behavior that turns out to be spiteful in the long run.”
Darn it, there's always a downside!
The voice of experience
California tries to stop federal government from dumping homes.
"The U.S. Government is now in the real estate business" one Californian representative said. I say, what happens, even in Greenwich, when fire-sale prices start knocking off our spec house inventory? If your own, slightly dated home is priced at $2.5 million and right down the street a spec house, brand new, suddenly appears at $1.95 million, which is going to sell first and what's going to happen to your price? Just asking, is all.
California tries to stop federal government from dumping homes.
The concern in parts of Southern California illustrates the risks that could lie ahead for other communities as the Treasury begins a massive churn of assets. Depressed real-estate values in areas across the country could slide further if homes are sold to large financial investors who then flip them to others who want to make a quick profit.
"The U.S. Government is now in the real estate business" one Californian representative said. I say, what happens, even in Greenwich, when fire-sale prices start knocking off our spec house inventory? If your own, slightly dated home is priced at $2.5 million and right down the street a spec house, brand new, suddenly appears at $1.95 million, which is going to sell first and what's going to happen to your price? Just asking, is all.
I thought we solved all this last week
Bloomberg reports that the Fed will buy all commercial paper to ease credit crunch. That's at least $1.6 trillion, over and above the paltry $700 billion we're spending to save the banks. Thank goodness for printing presses, eh? Let's just hope we don't suffer a shortage of wheelbarrows or we won't be able to carry our paychecks home from the bank.
This is why we're in the mess we're in
Barney Frank says attacks on Community Reinvestment Act are racist
There's no room for discussion: don't like fiscal irresponsibility? Then "you're a racist! Don't blame me for trying to help the poor." I suppose that this, coming from a man who let his Senate Page lover run a prostitution ring from the Franks manse in Washington for years and "never noticed" is hardly surprising. The man may really be as clueless as he claims to be. He's certainly as venal.
Update: From someone who gets it:
Rep. Artur Davis of Alabama, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus:
"Like a lot of my Democratic colleagues I was too slow to appreciate the recklessness of Fannie and Freddie. I defended their efforts to encourage affordable homeownership when in retrospect I should have heeded the concerns raised by their regulator in 2004. Frankly, I wish my Democratic colleagues would admit when it comes to Fannie and Freddie, we were wrong."
Barney, have you met Artur?
Harbor Point Troubles Continue
I'd thought that, with Antares booted off the site, Stamford's huge Harbor Point project would get back on track. But a reader just emailed me this article from the Stamford Advocate and apparently the new developer has been forced to stop construction because of flagrant zoning violations. Hmmm. Sounds to me like they need the Hamilton Avenue School Construction Committee to step in and lend a hand. God knows, we in Greenwich would be happy to send them over the border: permanently, if that's what it takes.
I'd thought that, with Antares booted off the site, Stamford's huge Harbor Point project would get back on track. But a reader just emailed me this article from the Stamford Advocate and apparently the new developer has been forced to stop construction because of flagrant zoning violations. Hmmm. Sounds to me like they need the Hamilton Avenue School Construction Committee to step in and lend a hand. God knows, we in Greenwich would be happy to send them over the border: permanently, if that's what it takes.
Fair Market Value?
In my post yesterday about a building lot listed for sale on Thornhill Road I hinted that its asking price of $850,000 precluded a builder from making a profit and hence was too high. A reader then asked what a fair price would be for the lot. I think my answer is that "fair" has nothing to do with it. In a better market, where houses on Thornhill could command $2,000,000, $850,000 for this lot might fly. But, as Mr. Rumsfeld so famously said,you don't sell your house on the market you'd like to have, you sell it on the market you do have. With that, he marched his troops into Iraq and the rest is history.
The market right now will not support a Thornhill price of $2,000,000. In fact, I'm not sure it will support anything much above $1,250,000 in which case, accounting for building costs, the market value of this lot is ... very small. Don't like that? Don't sell, and wait for better days.
When I opined that relaxing the mark to market rule for banks might make sense several readers promptly corrected and educated me. The current value of anything, be it toxic loans or real estate, is whatever buyers will pay for it, not what its owner hopes it will be worth in the future. I did reprint a letter I received from a (soon-to-be unemployed) mortgage broker who said it wasn't "fair" to make banks mark their unwanted loans down to zero because, while the market might consider them worthless now, surely a better time would come and some value would be discovered. When better times come, then those loans might indeed be worth something. But right now, securities with no buyers and real estate that no builder or even end user wants has no market value. Let's hope that changes soon.
In my post yesterday about a building lot listed for sale on Thornhill Road I hinted that its asking price of $850,000 precluded a builder from making a profit and hence was too high. A reader then asked what a fair price would be for the lot. I think my answer is that "fair" has nothing to do with it. In a better market, where houses on Thornhill could command $2,000,000, $850,000 for this lot might fly. But, as Mr. Rumsfeld so famously said,you don't sell your house on the market you'd like to have, you sell it on the market you do have. With that, he marched his troops into Iraq and the rest is history.
The market right now will not support a Thornhill price of $2,000,000. In fact, I'm not sure it will support anything much above $1,250,000 in which case, accounting for building costs, the market value of this lot is ... very small. Don't like that? Don't sell, and wait for better days.
When I opined that relaxing the mark to market rule for banks might make sense several readers promptly corrected and educated me. The current value of anything, be it toxic loans or real estate, is whatever buyers will pay for it, not what its owner hopes it will be worth in the future. I did reprint a letter I received from a (soon-to-be unemployed) mortgage broker who said it wasn't "fair" to make banks mark their unwanted loans down to zero because, while the market might consider them worthless now, surely a better time would come and some value would be discovered. When better times come, then those loans might indeed be worth something. But right now, securities with no buyers and real estate that no builder or even end user wants has no market value. Let's hope that changes soon.
Going boldly where no editor has dared tread before.
Greenwich Time runs a hard-hitting editorial on property taxes today. It starts off with the usual liberal lament that Greenwich doesn't pay enough taxes and Waterbury too much then, perhaps sensing that its readers might not agree with that proposition, switches gears and rails againt wasteful spending: that ought to appeal to these damn skinflint Yankees!
I was under the obviously mistaken impression that editorial writers took a position and then defended it. Our local paper differs, and has instead produced another soggy opinion piece that says and concludes nothing. I don't purchase the Greenwich Time so I suppose I have no cause to complain about the salary paid to its editor, but talk about wasteful spending ....
Greenwich Time runs a hard-hitting editorial on property taxes today. It starts off with the usual liberal lament that Greenwich doesn't pay enough taxes and Waterbury too much then, perhaps sensing that its readers might not agree with that proposition, switches gears and rails againt wasteful spending: that ought to appeal to these damn skinflint Yankees!
I was under the obviously mistaken impression that editorial writers took a position and then defended it. Our local paper differs, and has instead produced another soggy opinion piece that says and concludes nothing. I don't purchase the Greenwich Time so I suppose I have no cause to complain about the salary paid to its editor, but talk about wasteful spending ....
Oh great, this we need?
Some nitwit claims that this is the perfect time for stay-at-home moms to become real estate agents. While surely it's coincidence that the lady is flogging her new book on just this subject, I still question her sense of timing (and that of her publisher, come to think of it). If it works, though, I may finally release my own, long deferred opus, "Mom's to Bond Traders - How to make billions from your own kitchen table".
Update: a reader who knows (well, he thinks he knows) that I'm kidding about bond trading from the kitchen table warns me not to laugh: it's been tried in the past with rather unfortunate results. As proof, he sent me this link to a NYT article on Japanese housewives going bust in currency trading.
Some nitwit claims that this is the perfect time for stay-at-home moms to become real estate agents. While surely it's coincidence that the lady is flogging her new book on just this subject, I still question her sense of timing (and that of her publisher, come to think of it). If it works, though, I may finally release my own, long deferred opus, "Mom's to Bond Traders - How to make billions from your own kitchen table".
Update: a reader who knows (well, he thinks he knows) that I'm kidding about bond trading from the kitchen table warns me not to laugh: it's been tried in the past with rather unfortunate results. As proof, he sent me this link to a NYT article on Japanese housewives going bust in currency trading.
Troubles continue at the soon-to-fail YMCA
Yet another "leader" for the Greenwich YMCA". The new guy's out after just a year on the job and has been replaced by Rebecca Fretty, "a longtime town resident and marketing executive with ties to the Junior League of Greenwich."
All this comes after the Y first imported from California a fellow named John Elkrem who committed, over the vehement objections of older members, to a $36 million reconstruction program that saw the gutting of the building, the eviction of low-income tenants on the third floor ("living on the street promotes hardiness and well being", claimed Elkrem), the loss of the oldest handball court in the country and the selling-off of Calves Island. The pool is done - nothing else, including the gymnasium that some saw as the raison d'etre for the expansion, is. Despite assurances that the new pool would draw new members who in turn would cover the cost of servicing the huge debt incurred in rebuilding and thus fund the completion of the job, Elkrem was shoved out. He left an organization that was now grossly underfunded and mired in debt, and that liability continues to grow. Ashleigh Rowe, the official spokesman for the Y, asserted yesterday that everything was wonderful and that the pool had attracted many new members. Asked how many, Rowe admitted that "she did not have overall membership figures for the YMCA". Now, the lawyer in me interprets that as an admission that she knows damn well how few new members the pool attracted and how many existing members have quit in disgust but I suppose, given the Y's track record in hiring incompetents, Rowe really is as ignorant as she says she is.
But we need not worry about the new Leader. Freety, she with "ties to the Junior League", is said to be "talented, energetic and a good spirit" by none other than Lynn Lavery, who should know - she said essentially the same thing about her friend, Dickie Fuld.
Yet another "leader" for the Greenwich YMCA". The new guy's out after just a year on the job and has been replaced by Rebecca Fretty, "a longtime town resident and marketing executive with ties to the Junior League of Greenwich."
All this comes after the Y first imported from California a fellow named John Elkrem who committed, over the vehement objections of older members, to a $36 million reconstruction program that saw the gutting of the building, the eviction of low-income tenants on the third floor ("living on the street promotes hardiness and well being", claimed Elkrem), the loss of the oldest handball court in the country and the selling-off of Calves Island. The pool is done - nothing else, including the gymnasium that some saw as the raison d'etre for the expansion, is. Despite assurances that the new pool would draw new members who in turn would cover the cost of servicing the huge debt incurred in rebuilding and thus fund the completion of the job, Elkrem was shoved out. He left an organization that was now grossly underfunded and mired in debt, and that liability continues to grow. Ashleigh Rowe, the official spokesman for the Y, asserted yesterday that everything was wonderful and that the pool had attracted many new members. Asked how many, Rowe admitted that "she did not have overall membership figures for the YMCA". Now, the lawyer in me interprets that as an admission that she knows damn well how few new members the pool attracted and how many existing members have quit in disgust but I suppose, given the Y's track record in hiring incompetents, Rowe really is as ignorant as she says she is.
But we need not worry about the new Leader. Freety, she with "ties to the Junior League", is said to be "talented, energetic and a good spirit" by none other than Lynn Lavery, who should know - she said essentially the same thing about her friend, Dickie Fuld.
Realogy feeling the squeeze
Firms financed by Junk bondsare getting pinched and Realogy, parent company of Sotheby's and Coldwell Banker, is one of the pinchees. Ow!
Firms financed by Junk bondsare getting pinched and Realogy, parent company of Sotheby's and Coldwell Banker, is one of the pinchees. Ow!
Monday, October 06, 2008
This is a relief, a pity, or just another bit of hysteria
British scientist says human evolution is at an end.
I think it's the latter, myself, but I'll wait to hear from the Greens - they'll know.
Go ahead, take your mind off all things economic
Prowling the net just now, I stumbled across this Indian blogger. He seems to reprint other's news stories but he has other links to other Indian bloggers and his own postings appear to present (on an admittedly cursory sampling) an eclectic taste of what's going on over there. I've never visited the country but I'd like to. Until I sell a few more houses, however, this will have to do.
Prowling the net just now, I stumbled across this Indian blogger. He seems to reprint other's news stories but he has other links to other Indian bloggers and his own postings appear to present (on an admittedly cursory sampling) an eclectic taste of what's going on over there. I've never visited the country but I'd like to. Until I sell a few more houses, however, this will have to do.
Here's bad news
Always looking for a silver lining, I had blithely assumed that the Wall Street bust had driven OwlGore and his minions under the bedcovers, if only for a few blessed weeks, but no: Googling for news of the fat fraud disclosed that he's still touring the country in his private, solar powered jet, spreading his girth and ignorance around our fifty states. Latest sighting was in Iowa, where the Nobel Prize winner assured his audience that their recent floods and tornadoes were caused by, quell surprise! - global warning!
Sure, his wacko theories were immediately debunked by meteorologists who concluded that the man doesn't understand basic meteorology, much less climate change , but do Gore acolytes listen to or hear scientists? To judge from their behavior, no.
So that's too bad. My own forecast? We're doomed to still more years of this nonsense, stretching on forever; unless, of course we're all swept out to sea by rising tides and tornadoes.
Yelling fire in a crowded theatre?
A supposed financial guru, Jim Kramer, warns investors to pull their money out of stocks. I don't watch TV and this man makes me glad I don't but apparently he's a "respected analyst", whatever that's worth and, because he yelled his warning on the Today Show, I assume people will follow his advice.
I'm not a financial analyst nor, unlike Mr. Kramer, do I play one on TV but this sounds like bad advice to me. I think that, if I had money to risk, I'd be buying, not selling. Taking losses today guarantees what - a 20% loss? I don't see the stock market recovering tomorrow but most companies seem to be in pretty good shape and I'd be tempted to bet with them rather than against them.
Again, what do I know? Except that buying into whatever has the media in a frenzy today (and that panic changes from day to day - the media doesn't care what the hot issue, so long as it can whip its viewers and readers into the right mood) is usually a losing proposition.
Buyers and their agents
I don't have much (any, actually) sympathy for home owners whose house doesn't sell when they set their own price. And I lack much empathy for those sellers' agents who, against their better judgement, took the over-priced listing in the hope they could get the seller to see reason somewhere before the listing expired (especially because I've done the same thing myself but, I hope, no longer). We can all make mistakes in pricing a house but that's what price cuts are for. The owner who stubbornly refuses to hear what the market is telling him deserves what he gets, in my opinion.
But I do feel sorry for those sellers who take the (bad) advice of an agent and continue to do so in the face of marketplace condemnation. I suspect that these folks decide that they have to trust someone and if they trusted their agent to begin with, why abandon him or her now?
Because that trust is misplaced, I suggest. I've seen situations where sellers just wanted out, either because of a job transfer or retirement, yet grossly overpriced their house because their agent told them to do so. That agent, in turn, keeps the price too high, probably through false pride, but who knows? Maybe it's actual malice. Worse still is when the agent persuades the poor saps to put more money into the house that won't sell so that they can not sell it at a still higher price. It's a losing strategy but one I see employed all over town. The result: the newly purchased retirement home sits vacant while the would-be sellers sit in and maintain a house they no longer want. I don't understand this because nobody wins in this game - the sellers remain stuck and the agent remains unpaid. So why is it done? Beats me - I've already guessed it's because of either pride or malice but perhaps I'm missing something here. Feel free to hazard your own guess or impart your knowledge.
I don't have much (any, actually) sympathy for home owners whose house doesn't sell when they set their own price. And I lack much empathy for those sellers' agents who, against their better judgement, took the over-priced listing in the hope they could get the seller to see reason somewhere before the listing expired (especially because I've done the same thing myself but, I hope, no longer). We can all make mistakes in pricing a house but that's what price cuts are for. The owner who stubbornly refuses to hear what the market is telling him deserves what he gets, in my opinion.
But I do feel sorry for those sellers who take the (bad) advice of an agent and continue to do so in the face of marketplace condemnation. I suspect that these folks decide that they have to trust someone and if they trusted their agent to begin with, why abandon him or her now?
Because that trust is misplaced, I suggest. I've seen situations where sellers just wanted out, either because of a job transfer or retirement, yet grossly overpriced their house because their agent told them to do so. That agent, in turn, keeps the price too high, probably through false pride, but who knows? Maybe it's actual malice. Worse still is when the agent persuades the poor saps to put more money into the house that won't sell so that they can not sell it at a still higher price. It's a losing strategy but one I see employed all over town. The result: the newly purchased retirement home sits vacant while the would-be sellers sit in and maintain a house they no longer want. I don't understand this because nobody wins in this game - the sellers remain stuck and the agent remains unpaid. So why is it done? Beats me - I've already guessed it's because of either pride or malice but perhaps I'm missing something here. Feel free to hazard your own guess or impart your knowledge.
Extraordinary delusions and the madness of crowds
I saw a local builder quoted in one of our weekly rags recently, pointing to his unsold new construction in Riverside as evidence of a slow (or dead) market. Usually, he claimed, his houses sold immediately but this one had sat on the market for ten months. Proof, he says, that the market's screwing him.
I like this guy and wish him only the best but the fact is that he over-priced his project originally and even a year and ten months ago, it wouldn't have sold where he wanted it to. I sold two new houses in Riverside this year, each in what I (and the market) felt was a better location and each substantially cheaper than this one (but over $3,000,000, lest you think we're comparing apples to oranges here).
So yes, the market's in the doldrums, but before you leave your house priced where it is and throw your hands up, a victim of impossible circumstances beyond your control, consider the possibility that you muffed up when you set your price.
I saw a local builder quoted in one of our weekly rags recently, pointing to his unsold new construction in Riverside as evidence of a slow (or dead) market. Usually, he claimed, his houses sold immediately but this one had sat on the market for ten months. Proof, he says, that the market's screwing him.
I like this guy and wish him only the best but the fact is that he over-priced his project originally and even a year and ten months ago, it wouldn't have sold where he wanted it to. I sold two new houses in Riverside this year, each in what I (and the market) felt was a better location and each substantially cheaper than this one (but over $3,000,000, lest you think we're comparing apples to oranges here).
So yes, the market's in the doldrums, but before you leave your house priced where it is and throw your hands up, a victim of impossible circumstances beyond your control, consider the possibility that you muffed up when you set your price.
Dickie Fuld; "Your fault, your fault, nah nah nah!
In his testimony before Congress today, Mr. Fuld revealed a myriad of hitherto-unknown enemies of his company, all of which conspired to bring down the empire. Oh, for shame.
Charge of the Light BrigadeSomeone's got to be daring!
There's a new listing today on Thornhill Road (north of the Post Road, between Riverside Lane and Sheephill: $850,000 for 0.23 acre, which yields a maximum FAR size of about 3,600 sq.ft., if you dared build a house that big on this street and, the listing promises, "endless possibilities".
Well okay then, if there are endless possibilities, let's go for it. Applying the traditional rule of thumb of 3X land cost, you'd want to get $2,550,000 for your new project but, because the highest sale on this street is only $1.2 million, in a good year, you might want to reduce that ratio a bit. Tossing in carrying costs and overhead, figure that you'll spend $900,000 building this house. Add in the $850,000 cost of land and you'll break even at $1,750,000, if you pay the real estate commissions and taxes yourself. You don't want to do that, better price this thing at $1,850,000. You want to be compensated for your time and effort, you ungrateful wretch? Okay, take an extra $150,000 and sell it for $2,000,000. If you can accomplish that, you're a friggin' genius and should be snapping up all those failing projects on Round Hill rather than wasting your time here in bungalow land.
Is it unfair to point out that a Stamford broker priced this house?
Slappy says, "let's be happy!"
Okay sure, the stock market's a little gloomy today, and there's a world-wide collapse of stock and credit markets going on, but have you stopped to consider the good things in your life? Slappy has. For instance, the price of gas is going down! Of course, now that real estate agents don't have to drive all around town showing houses that's not quite the blessing it might have been this Spring, but its still a darn good thing, you betcha!
The builders of all those empty spec houses are happy, too - can you imagine what it must cost to heat 25,000 square feet of empty home during the winter, all winter? Lower fuel prices must be a real blessing for them.
Cross-word editors are happy because real estate lawyers and title searchers now have the time to idle away just hours and hours filling in the little squares. Imagine how proficient that extra experience will make them! Slappy sees a demand for entirely new crossword puzzles that are much more demanding than today's.
Bar tenders are happy counting tips from all their new customers who come off the train and head for the counter, rather than home; divorce counselors must be doing well and our churches will soon be over-flowing.
Those are just a few of the improvements to our life Slappy sees. Surely, if you'll look deep inside, you'll find many, many more. Ta ta for now.
11 Lindsay DriveI'm not picking on anyone here. This a lovely looking house in a convenient and desirable neighborhood, but it's been around at least since April '07, when its asking price was $12.950 million (and perhaps longer - there's a notation on the listing that shows the original listing price as $13.750 million but if that's accurate, someone's expunged the original listing from our records). Regardless of its pricing history, it's still for sale and still well above the $12 million mark; its latest price is $12.750 million. I'd love to see it go, as that might embolden buyers in lesser price ranges, but will it? Not today, probably.
A readers asks,
I called Anne Sweeney, Jeremy Kaye's top assistant, and she gave me a top-of-the-head answer of 80% (I've known and worked with Anne for about two decades and you could take her top-of-the-head calculations to the bank, if you still had a bank). Some of those buyers take out just a million dollar mortgage to take advantage of the tax break and I suppose they could dig up that much extra cash, if they needed to but it's probably safe to say that at least 75% of our buyers require a mortgage.
Some very rough calculations show that you'd need approximately $270,000 in income for every $1,000,000 you borrowed ($6,000 interest and principle, $1,500 property taxes = $90,000 per annum, X 3 = $270,000). Multiply that by two or three to cover the (current) price of a typical Greenwich house and you'll see why the collapse of Wall Street is damping our sales. As one of my friends once pointed out, before he'd made millions and traded humility for the certain knowledge that his gifts and riches were sent directly from God, "who else is going to pay me this kind of crazy money?" Probably no one. And that's not good news if you want to sell your house.
I would be curious to know what % of Greenwich houses are bought with a mortgage. Because if it's, say, 70% are bought with borrowing, then that is 70% of the market that no longer can get get funds to buy a house at a low enough rate to make it work for them.
I called Anne Sweeney, Jeremy Kaye's top assistant, and she gave me a top-of-the-head answer of 80% (I've known and worked with Anne for about two decades and you could take her top-of-the-head calculations to the bank, if you still had a bank). Some of those buyers take out just a million dollar mortgage to take advantage of the tax break and I suppose they could dig up that much extra cash, if they needed to but it's probably safe to say that at least 75% of our buyers require a mortgage.
Some very rough calculations show that you'd need approximately $270,000 in income for every $1,000,000 you borrowed ($6,000 interest and principle, $1,500 property taxes = $90,000 per annum, X 3 = $270,000). Multiply that by two or three to cover the (current) price of a typical Greenwich house and you'll see why the collapse of Wall Street is damping our sales. As one of my friends once pointed out, before he'd made millions and traded humility for the certain knowledge that his gifts and riches were sent directly from God, "who else is going to pay me this kind of crazy money?" Probably no one. And that's not good news if you want to sell your house.
Squirrel SnaringMy son just called me from Portland Maine and he's worried: his peers (the 25ish crowd) are sending around emails urging each other to buy survival gear and stockpile food for the coming Armageddon; should he listen?
I assured him he was okay and reminded him of what one of his heroes, Bob Dylan had to say on the subject: "when you ain't got nothing, you ain't got nothin' to lose." No one's coming to repossess John's guitar. Besides, I assured him, I could buy some ammunition for my hunting rifles and we'd go squirrel hunting or, if unsuccessful in that endeavor, we'd pick off a few of the hysterics in his neighborhood and dine on them - tastes like rabbit.
But it can't be helpful to our economy if they media has scared even the 18-25 year-old set. If these kids are worried, what's happening with older people who are watching their pensions and IRA's melt? Are they likely to decide that today's a great time to buy a house? I think not.
As I reminded John, however, there's no useful purpose served by worrying about things we can't control and, unless he knew some trick I didn't, the two of us going down to Wall Street and yelling "stop" would be a waste of subway fare. But he should keep his powder dry.
Slim Pickens Waves Good ByeWell this should be exciting: Dow down over 500 [update: 570 and falling], slips below 10,000
Sitting on the sidelinesWhere have all the flowers gone?
A reader asks, "where are the buyers?" I believe the picture to the left neatly sums up my answer but if not, here's another picture depicting what everyone is either expecting or fearing:
October 29, 1929 I just tried logging on to Bloomberg to grab a snapshot of today's market activity but the site wouldn't load. In the past few weeks, I've noticed the same phenomenon on days when the market news is particularly bad and I assume that's the same story today. Bloomberg could probably use a new, more robust server, but can it afford one?
Well, it's a start
Coldwell Banker initiates nationwide, 10% cut in all listing prices in the hope of jump-starting sales. I doubt 10% is sufficient. Coldwell says that these cuts will only last for a "ten day sales event" but what are they going to do on the eleventh day, rest? Raise the prices back up? Neither seems particularly useful.
And here's a quote from one disappointed homeowner who could easily be (but isn't)speaking from Greenwich:
This is the first time we're lowering it, and we really didn't want to do that because we listed it to sell," she said. "We knew things were tough, but the home is a really desirable unit in a neighborhood that rarely has anything come open so we didn't think it would have any problems selling.
None so blind as those who will not see, I suppose.
Expulsion From the Garden of EdenThe Times runs an article today on Lehman's Fall. Other than a sobering tale of Dickie Fuld's last days as he frantically sought to find a savior for his company I'm not sure what to take away from the story. But here's what struck me: the article concludes with an interview with a Riverside resident who fell when his employer did. I looked up the man's address and, though I have no interest in disturbing his privacy I'm comfortable saying that he lives in a nice neighborhood but nothing at all like Fuld's. The poor guy, still shell shocked, learned last week that Lehman was immediately cancelling his severance pay and health benefits, no doubt so that Fuld could continue to pay his landscaping fees. "This is wrong, and I can't stand for it," he fumed. "They need to just do the right thing."
Livvy Floren weeps. Having witnessed how Merrill Lynch treated my own father when it took over White, Weld & Co., I (a) shed no tears at its demise and (b) would caution this Lehman ex-employee not to hold his breath while waiting for Fuld et als to do the right thing.
209 Bedford RoadIf the GMLS records are accurate, the current owners of this place bought it, newly renovated, in 1998 for $1.525. Nine years later, in May, 2007, they put it back on the market and asked $3.495 million. I thought that was aggressive - renovations new in 1997 don't read as new, in this market, ten years later - but regardless of my view, the market wasn't impressed and the house didn't sell, despite a long series of price cuts. Today it was marked down to $2.5 million, or about 70% of its original asking price. Maybe it should have started there 1 1/2 years ago; now, it may be too late to get that price.
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Auf Wiedersehen?Or "so long, it's been good to know you". A couple of real estate firms in town have been pushing their "international connections", hinting (or promising) that they had a steady flow of European and other foreign buyers eager and willing to buy Greenwich properties. I was always dubious about those claims because, year after year, the average buyer in town was already in town and just moving up or down the food chain. But customers loved to believe it: "sure, my house may be a little over-priced for a Greenwich buyer, but what's that to someone paying in Euros or pounds? One of them will come by and pull my fat from the fire - just wait." Well, they waited and they lost. I don't have any statistics yet but it seems to me that, with European banks in a free fall, Russia's stock exchange shut down and the Middle East suffering from a huge decline in oil prices and the usual corruption that the merry-go-round may soon stop if it hasn't stopped already. Who will these firms promote as the next batch of unsophisticated buyers willing to pay more than a house is worth?
Ramussen: Poll of voters on what to do with the House and Senate
59% of American voters would throw the bums out and start anew.
So what's the matter with the other 41% ?
59% of American voters would throw the bums out and start anew.
So what's the matter with the other 41% ?
Rats!
Well gosh darn it, every time I want to respect the political and environmental opinions of our Hollywood stars, I keep coming across stories like this: Sharon Stone overreacted to son's foot odor. And mom?
No stinky feet here, thanks to their exposure to lots of clean, California air.
Well gosh darn it, every time I want to respect the political and environmental opinions of our Hollywood stars, I keep coming across stories like this: Sharon Stone overreacted to son's foot odor. And mom?
No stinky feet here, thanks to their exposure to lots of clean, California air.
Time for contrarian thinking?
I try to be as objective as I can when it comes to real estate and business and I don't think much of current market conditions nor the chances of those conditions improving in the immediate future. But I keep reading articles like this one in today's New York Times that proclaim that our doom has arrived and nothing will ever be the same again. In my limited experience, the more our media espouse common wisdom, the more we hear, "everybody knows", the less likely it is to be true. So if "everyone knows" that Wall Street's goose is cooked, that real estate is falling off a cliff and that we're in for a spiritual revival where the greedy, ambitious folks who brought the region such great wealth are going to retire to monasteries and contemplate their sins, the more a suspicion grows in me that perhaps the contrary will happen: greed won't disappear, the appetite for showy ostentatious houses won't diminish and Greenwich will continue on, unslowed. I don't believe this, mind you, but I'm beginning to wonder.
Ain't it a shame? Dubai feels our pain. Things are getting rocky for our Arab friends and Dubai, with $500 billion of real estate development cooking is headed for shoaling waters. Tough, says I.
Boy Scout Statue, Washington, D.C.Hmmm.
The Boy Scout looks chipper enough, but why is the Scout Master on the left coming out of the woods with his clothes under his arm? Just wondering.
Sleeping in Greenwich Time today exposes the dirty little secret of Connecticut's judicial system there's no penalty for ignoring a jury duty summons. Those summons include a harsh warning that a fine will be imposed for failure to comply but don't believe it. Years ago, one guy (a Greenwich resident, surely) simply sent a check to the court, explaining that he didn't have time to serve. The check was passed around the court, then up to Hartford and eventually returned to its maker - there is no one in the state authorized to receive or process such penalties.
Don't get me wrong: the day may come, and I hope it doesn't, that you'll be involved in a law suit and you will almost certainly then wish for a jury capable of intelligently evaluating your lawyer's arguments (of course, there are matters where we attorneys pray for a fat, dumb jury that can be swayed by emotion, not facts, but generally ....) so civic duty and self-interest should persuade you to show up with your college degree and apply your brains. But you don't have to.
"Cold Cash Jefferson"finishes first in Louisiana primary. Well why not; doesn't New Orleans deserve the very best? Worked for Washington, D.C. and Marion Barry.
Banks are considering refusing to participate in the bailout and continuing instead to try to muddle through. I'd be hugely impressed by their dedication to the principles of free enterprise were it not for this:
But Wall Street analysts, believe the addition of so many terms to the bill might deter potential participants.
One of the least attractive elements is a section designed to curb executive pay at banks that participate in the bail-out package. These include limiting stock-related pay and banning 'golden parachutes' for executives.
'I think this hodge-podge of regulations and rules will be enough to put many [chief executives] off participating,' Caldwell said.
Saturday, October 04, 2008
General Hammerstein-EquordWisdom from 1933 (or thereabouts)
In the comments below (the "Golden Girls" posting) a reader asked about agents who call about her expired listing and ask for an appointment to show the place to a client. I warned her that many of these calls come from new agents who have no clients but lots of time and that they mine the expired listings to try to con their way into a house and into a new listing. She wrote back to express her surprise that agents had enough time on their hands to track her down. Time on our hands? Slow market? Ha! How do you think I can post here so frequently?
Thanks to the wonder of computers, the GMLS data can be sliced, diced and sorted in a myriad of ways including status. Active, contract, sold and, for present purposes, expired and withdrawn. The calls start right after that sorting. Some of these agents are fresh from sales classes that teach them to make 10 - 20 cold calls a day and to concentrate on "FISBOs" - for sale by owner and expired listings. I won't say such classes are beneath my dignity but I've never attended one; I must have forgotten. Dealing with these callers can be vexing because many of them are completely clueless. We had to fire one new agent because, among other sins, she cold called people without bothering to even determine the address she was calling. When an owner asked what, specifically she liked about the house she didn't have the wit to bluff her way through and instead would ask, "and what part of town is your house in?" I complained to higher-ups that this creature was ruining our name but the final straw came when one fine day with time on her hands, she pored over the obituary pages and mailed each of the grieving relatives her sales pitch. I assume she's now practicing personal injury law somewhere, but she is no longer with us.
But I'm grateful to the lady for one thing: she reminded me of one of my father's favorite quotes, spoken by General Hammerstein - Equord, last leader of the Reichswehr before Hitler's ascension:
I divide my officers into four classes; the clever, the lazy, the industrious, and the stupid. Each officer possesses at least two of these qualities. Those who are clever and industrious are fitted for the highest staff appointments. Use can be made of those who are stupid and lazy. The man who is clever and lazy however is for the very highest command; he has the temperament and nerves to deal with all situations. But whoever is stupid and industrious is a menace and must be removed immediately!
The Bellamy BrothersHe's an Old Hippie
He turned thirty-five last Sunday
In his hair he found some gray
But he still ain't changed his lifestyle
He likes it better the old way
So he grows a little garden in the back yard by the fence
He's consuming what he's growing nowadays in self defense
He get's out there in the twilight zone
Sometimes when it just don't make no sense
He gets off on country music
Cause disco left him cold
He's got young friends into new wave
But he's just too friggin' old
And he dreams at night of Woodstock and the day John Lennon died
How the music made him happy and the silence made him cry
Yeah he thinks of John sometimes
And he has to wonder why
He's an old hippie and he don't know what to do
Should he hang on to the old
Should he grab on to the new
He's an old hippie...his new life is just a bust
He ain't trying to change nobody
He's just trying real hard to adjust
Who Knew?
I ruminated below about the 119 spec mansions sitting unsold in town and suggested, partly-tongue-in-cheek, that older Greenwich residents might want to unload their own mansions (at a reduced price, in today's market) pick up one of the big ones at the next foreclosure auction and have their own commune. Turns out, others are already doing this. See, eg, Elder Communes or this AARP article, Rethinking Communes. Hey, something has to happen to all these "Bad Manors", as Bernie Yudain calls them. Why not put them to fun use?
Isn't this duckie?
Here's one person's estimate of what Pelosi and her gang have wrought:$1.8 trillion of pork
Bailout type Cost to taxpayers (Source: Reuters)
Financial bailout package approved this week up to or more than $700 billion
Bear Stearns financing $29 billion
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac nationalization $200 billion
AIG loan and nationalization $85 billion
Federal Housing Administration housing rescue bill $300 billion
Mortgage community grants $4 billion
JPMorgan Chase repayments $87 billion
Loans to banks via Fed's Term Auction Facility $200 billion+
Loans from Depression-era Exchange Stabilization Fund $50 billion
Purchases of mortgage securities by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac $144 billion
POSSIBLE TOTAL $1.8 trillion+
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS PER U.S. CENSUS 105,480,101
POSSIBLE COST PER HOUSEHOLD $17,064+
"We will not Christmas Tree this bill", our protector Chuck Schumer vowed last week. "Everyone wants something but they'll have to wait. This matter is too urgent."
Thank God for Senator Schumer. Our wallets would have been emptied by his peers otherwise.
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