Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Contracts = activity.

Not sales, which are a lagging indicator - who cares what happened 30 - 60 days ago? With that in mind, you may want to know that we saw 11 houses go to contract in the past 10 business days. That's not much, obviously, so let's hope that it's merely a reflection of vacation schedules rather than a lack of interest in buying homes. Usually in August, that's the right explanation but I, at least, am a little nervous.

Rant of the morning - real estate readers, avert your eyes

California, home of all great ideas, was the first state to ban smoking in restaurants and now many of its cities have expanded that to the smoggy area outside. The ban seems to be working but I do wonder what possible health benefit is achieved by protecting an outdoor cafe patron from inhaling second hand smoke while continuing to expose the poor bastard to the world's foulest air (you say, "China's is worse, but every evening, prevailing winds dump a new load of Chinese poison on poor old California, so they're doubly blessed).

What concerns me, however, and what alarmed a few folks way back when the first smoking ban was imposed, is, "what's next?". Doomsayers predicted,and were scoffed at for their prediction, that this kind of governmental intrusion would spread and of course it has, from calorie counts and trans fat bans in New York City, no foie gras in Chicago, no smoking, alone, in your own car, etc.

Now Los Angeles has banned additional fast food joints in South LA. Leave alone the possibility that these places provided jobs in a blighted area that has never recovered from the Rodney King riots (and before that, the Watts frolics of 1965), what kind of paternalistic beneficence is going on here? Grown adults won't be allowed to buy a $1.00 cheeseburger but must instead opt for a full course tofu dinner that (a) costs far more and (b) doesn't exist within 5 miles of South LA?

Except for those too lazy to cook, the most healthy dinner is probably one you prepare yourself because you have full control and choice of ingredients. Los Angelenos apparently, don't have that option and are forced into the streets where they stuff themselves on the first food offered.

"The people don't want [fast food joints], but when they don't have any other options, they may gravitate to what's there," [Councilwoman Jan]Perry said in Monday's Los Angeles Times. So much for the free market - the city council will now decide what people want and don't want.

The city council exerts this dubious authority on the grounds that the citizens under its control are too fat: obesity consumes public funds to treat so sure, let's "do something" about it and individual choice be damned. "We can't take away their X-boxes" one supporter explains, alluding to the fact that lack of exercise contributes at least as much to the problem of chubby wubbies as cheese does, but why not? Exactly the same rationale applies. In fact,this reasoning opens the door to anything politicians want to impose for the good of "the people" - forced exercise, for instance (you say no, but Barak Obama is floating a proposal for compulsory "volunteer" service, 2 years for every young adult in America, so why not a brief stint of calisthenics each day in the local park, to get ready for that service?)

Even I'm not so old that I can't remember when people were pretty much free to do what they wanted to do so long as they weren't harming anyone else. That freedom has slowly eroded as the kind of people who enjoy telling others what to do have gained ascendancy via a "social cost" argument. We as a society are paying the medical costs for (some) people so we have the right to tell all of you to: wear seat belts; motorcycle helmets; not ingest trans fats; no goose liver (okay, it's not a health cost issue but we also have taken over the prerogative of protecting the well being of geese - so there); and so forth and so on. Just wait until we have national health insurance and we can go after diabetics and juveniles with rotting teeth for consuming too much candy. I admire the optimism of reformers who truly believe that if we all only did as they told us to it would be a wonderful world, but I wonder at, and fear, their combination of naivety and lust for power.

(Rant over.)
Milbank Avenue still draws optimists

I see that yesterday two adjacent properties on Milbank Avenue, 196 and 198, went to contract. These are tear-down multi-families so I assume that a builder's planning condos on the site. Asking price for each lot was $1.6 million and, while asking and getting often aren't the same thing, it's encouraging that someone still has enough faith in the Greenwich condominium market to go to contract on this land.

The devil just whispered, "a fool and his money ..." but that's just mean.

Update:

The sales price was just announced: $1,250,00 for each lot, so about 22% off asking price.

Sell that house

A reader asks:

"I have taken my home off the market during August, just needed a break and nothing was happening. I plan to put it back on, when would you suggest? When things were cooking, would it have been the 1st/2nd week in Sept?"

She's right (or he's right) that early September has traditionally seen a surge of new listings that mark the beginning of what used to be, anyway, the fall buying season. I think I'd still advise putting it on at that time - perhaps September 15th, which allows for Labor Day (the 1st) and the week after that for kids to get settled in school and their parents to begin looking. I also like the later date because, in this market, it will provide an opportunity for the seller and her agent to take a hard, objective look at the competition, old and new - the stuff that came on the week before. At that point, if both seller and agent are convinced that the house is fairly priced (remember, I said make a hard, objective comparison) then, especially in a case like this, where the property's been on the market long enough to wear out its would-be seller, I'd reprice it at least 10% lower. You do want to sell the place, right?

But make sure, in calculating that reduction, that you're not over market to begin with (and the fact that it hasn't sold suggests that it is). There's a "new" listing today that's come back with a new broker and a new price that's 15% off its original but that original price was ridiculous, given the location. I'm being deliberately vague about this home's identity because I don't want to embarrass the owner or make it even harder to sell but, when I first saw this place a year ago, I thought it was easily priced 2X too high. If i was right and, so far, the market bears me out, a 15% reduction isn't going to do any good and will only prolong the owner's agony.

Speaking of which, the house is a spec project and has a lot of company out there. Local banks funded many of these houses and I wonder how long it will be before we start seeing some of these small banks in trouble. Just sayin'...

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

We're all going to die

So Give your money to the government. It's stories like this that give global warming a bad name. That and OwlGore's mansions, planes, houseboats and limousines, of course.

WWTDD?

That means, of course, "what would The Donald do?". I don't believe Mr. trump has stepped foot in town since he abandoned the fair Ivana but even the master of bankruptcy might be stumped by the challenge of unloading certain land on Quaker Lane, way up off Riversville Road. This is a very nice parcel of land with a couple of old caretaker cottages but it's been kicking around for quite awhile. (Mr.Andrew Kissel may have had eye on it but if so he permanently lost interest in further projects after his misadventure on Dairy Road - the new house built where Kissel's body was discovered remains unsold, bye the bye, despite being marked down $10.750 to $8.950. Market conditions or psychological impact? I don't know).

The land was listed for $1.995 Million in April of '04 and sold for $1.650 in February of '05. So far, so good, but it was returned to market in April '07 for $2.495 and some of us, noticing that nothing much had been done to the buildings and that the land itself hadn't expanded thought, "huh?". The marketplace agreed and the price gradually kept dropping until, as the listing expired this past April, it could have been had for $1.995. Now it's back with a new broker and the price has been edged back up a jot to $1.999 million. I guess the new broker thinks things have improved since April.

I repeat that this is very nice land and will make someone a great building site but I suspect that the 2005 sales price marked its high water mark, at least for the foreseeable future. Time will tell and apparently, the seller has lots of that.

No taxes for NYC

Mortgage losses are so large that many Wall Street firms won't be paying NY City income taxes for years according to the Bloomberg article linked above. That's probably bad news for Connecticut, too.

Oil Prices fall as demand drops

Don't tell the Demmerkrats, but this is how the market place works. Too bad that the same underlying principle applies to real estate.

Buck teeth? Not on Chinese television!

Good Lord, it turns out that a Chinese government official nixed the appearance on TV of a little girl who has buck teeth (picture and story above). Spring for some braces, comrade.

There are lots of reasons I haven't watched a single minute of the Olympics and this just adds to them.

Off to open houses

It's Tuesday morning, so it's time to spend some gas and see what's new today (not much and, despite gasoline dropping to $4.19 a gallon in Cos Cob, it remains a commodity I am increasingly reluctant to consume, so I'm picky about what I see). One listing that caught my eye is five acres on Wooddale, off of Lake: 5 acres in a 2 acre zone, with a 1952 contemporary by Minoru Yamasaki. I understand that the guy designed the Twin Towers which, despite their tragic ending, remain one of my least favorite examples of modern architecture.

In fact, this fellow seems to sum up much of what I don't like about the past century's architecture. According to Wikipedia,
His first significant project was the Pruitt-Igoe housing project in St. Louis, Missouri, 1955. Despite his love of Japanese traditional design, this was a stark, modernist concrete structure. The housing project experienced so many problems that it was demolished in 1972, less than twenty years after its completion. Its destruction is considered by some to be the beginning of postmodern architecture.


I can't say I'm any more enthusiastic about postmodernism (you suspected that from my politics, didn't you?) but tearing down malfunctioning ugly buildings certainly has my support.

Update: Here's more on the Pruitt-Igoe housing project.
And photos here.

Update: It's actually a very nice modern house, 1950's style. Lots of glass providing great views of the surrounding lawns and woods, a simple layout and a very quiet, understated place, all in all. Of course, it will never survive the wrecker's ball, so I'm glad I had a chance to see it before it's scraped into a dumpster.

Code Pink Marches to Georgia!

Well they haven't exactly announced anything like that but given their outrage of a few years ago (link above) I expect to see them off any day now.
More here

Or perhaps they're off to Moscow hospitals?

Or Washington!

Update: Never mind - turns out, it's all Bush's fault.

Tear down of the week


This house at 12 St. Claire Avenue in Old Greenwich sold in a bidding war this past April for $3 million and change. I was, and remain astonished, because I don't think a builder could afford to pay so much for land and expect any kind of profit and a private homeowner will, I'd estimate, end up with a house costing somewhere around $5 million dollars. Will this street support that kind of value? The buyer obviously thinks so. In any event, another one is about to hit the dust.

Update: After inquiry, I learned that this 0.55 acres was held as two seperate lots, dating back to when Old Greenwich had much less restrictive zoning regulations. So, under the "grandfather rules" of zoning, the purchaser will be able to erect two houses where one now stands, even though he couldn't do that today, were it one lot.

I still question the wisdom of paying $1,500,000 each for two 11,900 sq. ft. building lots on this street. One upside: the sight of two huge houses on two tiny lots should more than distract us from the loss of a nice old farmhouse.

A surplus of phone books

Today's dead tree edition of Greenwich Time has an AP story on the so-far-futile attempt by legislatures to permit homeowners to opt out of receiving 5000 phone books each year. The article isn't avialable on line but while Googling for it I came across a similar article which I link to above. Most encouraging news" Bill Gates thinks the books will be obsolete in five years. Others aren't as sanguine, because there's lots of money generated by these things but for once, I'll hope that Gates is right.

Buying Foreclosed Homes in Bulk

Thanks to a reader I have a link to the story I mentioned yesterday. It's found above.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Who's out there lending?

Not Fannie Mae. I'm still searching for the article on brave investors pitching to buy entire portfolios of foreclosed homes from banks but here's a bit of gloomy news from last weekend, just in case you missed it. You can use the link for the full article but this sums things up rather nicely:
Fannie Mae executives, in a conference call with analysts on Friday, said they intended to reduce the growth of the company’s loan portfolio and stop buying riskier so-called Alt-A mortgages by the end of the year. Fannie Mae will also begin charging more to guarantee loan repayments, a step that is likely to push mortgage rate higher.

“Fannie and Freddie’s decision to curtail support of the mortgage market is going to make mortgages more expensive for potential home buyers, which is going to hurt the overall economy,” said Howard Shapiro, an analyst at Fox-Pitt, Kelton. “They’re the only real buyers in this market, and they’re going to buy less. That’s really bad news.”

Distressed loans

There was an article in either Bloomberg or the NY Times yesterday about vulture capitalists buying huge chunks of foreclosed properties from banks. I haven't found that article yet but while I was looking I came across this related story (see link above) about investors buying bad loans and mortgages. What I found interesting was that leon Black, principal of Apollo Group and owner of Realogy (which, in turn, owns Century 21, Sotheby's and Coldwell Banker) is NOT interested in buying bad mortgages, even for pennies on the dollar. Does he know something he should be telling us? A little buyer's remorse going on? We'll see, perhaps.

Cars in Greenwich

The web site I link to above may or may not be accurate - I don't think its calculation of median price is on target, for instance. But if you jump around to all five of our zip codes (tat would be 06807, 06830, 06831, 06870 and 06878) you can compile the number of motor vehicles it thinks are in town. Or you can trust my math (always a dangerous thing to do) and learn that we have 43,917 motor vehicles kicking around. That number includes motor scooters, mopeds and the like, but it's still a lot of steel on our streets, given that 25% of our population of 62,000 is under 16 (roughly). No word on how many landscapers, cement trucks and the like fly through our town every day but I do notice, I think, a lessening in their number. If you want a taste of those numbers, park near St. Catherine's at the intersection of the Post Road and Riverside Avenue at 8 in the morning and count how many turn into Riverside. Multiply that by 5 and Bob's your uncle!

Here's another neat trick. Use the website above to navigate and see how many households in Greenwich proper have 5 or more cars: 199 households(owner-occupied and rental) 995 cars. Remind me to stay away from the Back Country on Sundays.

population growth or lack thereof.

Click on title above to reach some interesting data on how Greenwich hasn't grown since 1970, when our population was 59,000 to today, 62,000. Might make you wonder why we have so many moretown employees, but ....

Come on, you pikers!

A Russian, taking time off from militarily invading his neighbors, has just bought a house on the Riviera for $500 million Euros which, assuming 1.49 dollars per Euro, works out to about $750 million of our pathetic greenbacks. And you're worried about stetching for a measly $30 million mansion? Heck, Helmsley's digs for $125 million look positively cheap.

Have you eaten here?



I'm a huge fan of Mexican food and an extended stay in New Mexico pretty much ruined by palate for Taco Bell. Port Chester has some good restaurants but I've been intrigued by this food van which parks at the top of Richmond Hill in Stamford. It's usually crowded and last Saturday, when I stopped by to try it at 1:30 in the afternoon, I was told there'd be a twenty minute wait for my order. Twenty minutes on a Saturday afternoon suggests that something good's cooking so I'll try again. In the meantime, if you've tried it and care to spare me ptomaine poisoning, please write soon.