The New York Times thaws on global warming

Yesterday Thomas Friedman conceded (see link above) that maybe, just maybe, global warming is a phenomenon caused by non-human events. He wasn't convinced, of course,that we should stop worrying because, hey, "you never know", but that admission represents a large hole in the "mankind's doomed the planet" hype. His concluding words:

That project is already causing a stir in the climate community. In an article just published in the journal Science Express, Dahl-Jensen’s team wrote about how it had discovered from the ice cores that the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere over Greenland “changed abruptly” just as the last ice age ended around 11,700 years ago.

It seems to have been driven by a sudden change in monsoons in the tropics. The change was so abrupt that it warmed the Northern Hemisphere over Greenland by 10 degrees Celsius in just 50 years — a dramatic increase.

“It shows that our climate system has the ability to make very abrupt changes all by itself,” said Dahl-Jensen.

Some climate-change deniers would say that this proves that mankind is not important in changing the climate. Climate change experts, like Dahl-Jensen, say it’s not so simple: The climate is always changing, sometimes very abruptly, so the last thing that mankind should be doing is adding its own forcing actions — like pumping unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Because you never know — you never know — what will tip the balance and send us hurdling into another abrupt change ... and into another era.

Last week, the Times' official worrywart, Paul Krugman acknowledged that we can't be sure how bad the effects [if any -ed] of global warming might be, but do we want to take the chance?.

This is all heartening news to some of us. Al Gore claimed that "the dispute is over". People like me were called Holocaust deniers and worse. Now, it seems, that judgement may have been a bit premature. Better yet, I'm now justified in postponing yet again my first viewing of "An Inconvenient Truth".

More price reductions

Probably not enough to move them, but there were nine price reductions today and the real estate board's still open for business. 18 Thunder Mountain Road doesn't strictly qualify as a price reduction but it was offered for sale with a to-be-constructed house for $5,800,000 way back in 2002. It never sold, the house was never built and today the land itself reappeared, asking $2,500,000 for a 2+ acre lot. I like that 4 acres I mention below for $1.6 more than this one.

249 Bedford Road does has a house on it and it's been for sale since it was built in 2005. Three years later it still sits empty and effective today, is asking $5,200,000, a drop from its original price of $5,885,000. I think they should have started at its present price three years ago.

There's another house around the corner from Bedford that will never, ever sell for anything close to either its original price or its current reduced price. Fear of being hauled before a grievance board prevents me from identifying it, but it certainly provides a neat example of willful ignorance of market conditions.

Alert! Not about real estate!

Don't click on the link above if you're only interested in real estate news. But if an eloquent essay on the danger Obama presents to this country and its economy might strike your fancy, I recommend this piece by Ms. Kyle-Anne Shiver.

New Gasoline ripoff

I just filled up at my local station which advertises, in huge numbers, "$4.39" for regular grade. When I looked at my receipt, I realized I'd been charged $4.49 per gallon. I'd fallen victim to what our state democrats (see link above) touted as a taxpayer bonanza, a bill, effective July 1st, allowing gas stations to whack their customers an extra 10 cents for putting their purchase on a credit card (and who carries enough cash to fund a fill-up at today's prices?. Now, if you browse through the link above, you'll see that the Dems also pat themselves on the back for "saving home owners from additional property taxes" by extending the conveyance tax on real estate sales, so it shouldn't surprise you that they see a ten cent sop to their gasoline retail constituents as a boon to us suckers who buy the stuff on plastic. But I dislike the deception employed by this particular retailer. who lured me in with one price and stuck me with a higher one. I once praised this particular Old Greenwich station as being a reliable source of honest repair work. I've been repaid by twice being sold unnecessary and over-priced repairs and now this. The heck with them. The Sunoco station in Stamford (on the Post Road near Shaeffer Rug) sells gas for $4.29 regardless of how you pay for it. From now on,I'll just mosey on up the street.

Update: I just walked over to take a picture of their sign for this blog and I see that the cash/credit differential is posted - my fault for not noticing. I'm still not going to pay them a dime extra per gallon, especially in light of their repair practices.

The Breath of Gods?

I love wind energy. We all love wind energy, I'm sure. But the New York Times really loves wind energy and says so right here (link above) in what is supposed to be a news report. Does the following text sound like objective reporting, the kind that was once taught, I presume, in journalism school? To me, it reads like the sophomoric work of a dewy eyed high school student.

Though painted gray, the turbines stand out against the evening backdrop of battleship-colored thunderclouds and bear an almost celestial whiteness when day’s light is right. Airplane pilots can spot them from far away, and rarely does a bird make their unfortunate acquaintance.

The sound of 8.5-ton blades, three to a turbine, turning and turning, only enhances their almost supernatural presence. Standing at the base of a turbine’s stalk, you hear a whistling whoosh — whuh ... whuh ... whuh — as steady summer winds come like the breath of gods to toy with pinwheel amusements.

Or this:

Nebraska Public, for example, will buy the energy created by two wind farms being built by private developers 140 miles east of here, and will replace those two turbines up in Springview by next year. It hopes that within a decade or so, 10 percent of its energy will be produced by clean, free, plentiful wind.

It's all very nice, but I wish the reporter had picked up on a few things that might make this marvelous project a bit less viable in the east. First, Nebraska bought 11,000 acres surrounding the turbines to prevent future development from blocking the wind - try doing that in Connecticut or anywhere that's in view of teddy Kennedy's compound. Second, and unlike conditions here on the east coast, there were transmission lines already in place, capable of carrying the generated electricity to where it's needed. Out here, we refuse to let anything be built, windmills or transmission lines (or pipelines, power plants or LNG plants). Perhaps, when we suffer our next brown-out, the New York Times will send us a reporter to sing us back to sleep.

Exxon's Profit Margin

10%, as we've noted before, and discussed in today's Wall Street Journal (link above). And here's someone else who isn't impressed with our mainstream media's coverage of this issue.

Bargains?

I'm beginning to see some and I'm hearing about a few huge price reductions that aren't yet publicized, so there may be some sense returning to the market. Until now, the buyers were skittish and many sellers were content to sit things out - not a situation conducive to moving real estate. I'll tell you where I'm seeing reasonable prices but only after I finish trying to sell them to my own clients; I do have to make a living, you know. Check back in at the end of the week. By that time, "they snooze, they lose".

In the meantime, you may want to read this column in The New York Times on the glut in single bedroom condos-turns out, first time buyers can't get financing, which is what's hurting sales of our lower-priced inventory here in Greenwich. Take note of the frustrated seller quoted as saying "I wish we'd negotiated more with the first buyer". He didn't, lost the deal and a year later is still sitting on a property he doesn't want to own. There's a lesson in this.

Ban it!

Some state representative is pushing for a one year moratorium on artificial turf playing fields until the State of Connecticut conducts a study on their safety. Never mind that there have been dozens of studies performed by other states and several branches of the federal government, we won't be safe unless we spend this state's taxpayers' money to see for ourselves. The hysteria on this issue has reached Greenwich, too, via Selectwoman Lin Lavery but as far as I know, our kids are still playing on the stuff, no thanks to her.

Nalgene water bottles

It's all reminiscent of the recent fervor that resulted in the world-wide banning of Nalgene bottles - the best invention for hiking ever made (with the possible exception of lightweight LED headlamps). The old bottles stunk of plastic and often leaked. Nalgene bottles were unbreakable and imparted no taste or odor to the water they contained. But someone, somewhere (Canada, actually) decided, in the face of every other study that said otherwise, that the chemical these bottles were made from might harm infants and presto! We're back to cupping our hands in streams and dribbling on our chests. But chemicals are bad, man - they aren't organic.

It's their Birthday!

The U.S. Department of Energy was established on this day in 1977 by The Great Rabbit Hunter, Jimmy Carter. It soaks up $25,000,000,000 (that's billion) a year now, and it's working every bit as well as our Department of Education.

Antares lays an egg

Despite Antares's best efforts, including a phony PR visit by A Rod last summer to this 35,000 square foot instant white elephant (picture in link, above) the partnership's mansion project is in complete disarray. How'd you like to be the chump who paid $10,000,000 for your house one month and watch the identical house next door sell for six just five weeks later?

Connecticut windfall

The Connecticut section of the New York Times (link above) discloses that, surprise! our government's been taxing the hell out of us under the guise of a gasoline tax (50¢ a gallon and climbing, as it's based on the price, rather than fixed by gallonage) that was supposed to be devoted to rebuilding and maintaining our roads. Ain't happening. Since the tax was passed in 2003, over a billion dollars have gone to non-transportation items and this year another two hundred million is destined for the same rat hole. You may remember that Lowell Weiker and his cronies pushed an income tax on the state with the promise that they'd use it wisely and balance our budget. Since then our population has gone down, the number of state workers has increased 200% and we haven't seen a balanced budget. We have, however, brought back the estate tax, imposed a real estate conveyance tax and then doubled it and, in general, seen our Legislature spend our money with abandon.

By the way. Just like Obama's latest promise to impose a windfall profits tax on the oil industry (Exxon's record profits last quarter amounted to a 10% profit margin - media companies, with the exception of the dying New York Times, make close to twice that) and pass out his largess to "American families, 25¢ of our gas tax is called a "wholesaler tax". This was supposed to tax the windfall profits of gasoline wholesalers and was passed on to the consumer. Guess who will see their oil prices increase if taxes are raised on oil companies? The American family. But we're stupid and it sounds good.

Dinosaurs at the Gate!

The postman just delivered four phone books to my, and everyone else's house in Greenwich. Mine went into the mixed paper bin. When was the last time you used a paper phonebook?

Greenspan - "Housing slump to continue"

Discouraging news, but Mr. Greenspan is not necessarily always right. Two years ago, he predicted the worst is over. So, as always, you pays your money, ya take your chances. I do wish credit would return, though.

Asbestos? Yawn.

Dundee School, site of the new/temporary wiffleball field, turns out to be enjoying a bit of asbestos removal in the building. Parents of the wiffleballers are upset, according to the Greenwich Time article linked above. For once, the town is right - this kerfuffle is all much ado about nothing, spurred by ignorance, which breeds fear. My personal opinion is that the Congressional mandate to remove asbestos from all schools in the nation is a colossal waste of money that diverted billions of dollars to contractors when it could have been spent on books, new buildings or even increasing teachers' salaries (if you're going to waste money anyway ....)

But even if you think asbestos is right up there on the danger screen with Nalgene water bottles, an asbestos removal project is a pretty safe operation for those outside. The building is reverse-pressurized, keeping all dust inside a plastic sheet-sealed area, the workers all wear space suits, air is monitored and everyone has a grand time while being very well paid because it looks so dangerous. In fact, years ago I defended one of several young kids who were caught up in a federal sweep of unscrupulous asbestos removal contractors. these kids, acting under orders from their boss, skipped the pressurizing bit, shucked the spacesuits and basically just ripped everything up, ran a vacuum cleaner over the site and went home. After the busts, tests were done and, surprise! No harm, no foul. The kids got probation; their boss was sent off to cool his heels for a spell, if I recall.

Eco Hysteria

There's a movement afoot to ban bottled water, which seems dubious to me. A commentator below ("The Bag Lady is Singing) suggests that ecological awareness is a good thing, no matter how misguided a few zealots are, or sound. I might agree, if I didn't fear that the zealots were on their way to taking over our schools, our children and our lives. The NYT article linked above doesn't scare me - some of the comments appended to it do. Here, for instance, is one from exactly the type of person who sets my teeth on edge and tempts me to reach for my revolver:

"10. July 29th, 2008

Bottled water is THE. BIGGEST. MYTH. IN. HISTORY.
(next to WMDs, of course)
I’ve done some research on this topic. I believe anyone who frequently drinks only bottled water is a disgrace. THey are selfish folks who care nothing about their surroundings and the environment. THey don’t care that tons of plastic, and energy and oil are used to make bottled water (which in some cases, like Dasani, is filtered tap water already).
ANything that states “purified water” means it is TAP WATER that goes thru a Brita-like filter. So why pay for it?
Also, water like FIji, actually comes from Fiji - 7,000 miles away. That uses fuel for the airplane, plastic for the bottle, and tons of energy to make the darn thing. Workers are paid a few cents an hour to make this product, which you carelessly throw away.
ANyone who doesn’t care about the environment, or buys bottled water by the multi-pack, should be ashamed to call themselves American, or even a concerned human. People like this are the ones who have polluted the Earth.
Bottled water is for those occasions when you forget to take your own, or you have a sudden urge for water. That’s it. It’s an emergency product. Drinking bottled water is as stupid as breathing air from an oxygen tank 24 hours a day.
— Posted by irritated"

When not being irritated by water drinkers, this lady busies herself by slipping abusive messages under the windshield wipers of SUVs. You can't tell her to get a life because she thinks she already has one. Ugh.

Fill a tire, save the world

The Messiah has suggested that, if only we were to properly inflate our car tires, we'd save as much gasoline as that which could be produced by additional drilling. Even a moron like myself could detect that something was wrong with that figure so I did a little digging on the internet to see how much oil we're talking about. The result: a lot, from the drilling (28 billion barrels from ANWAR and off shore, minimum) and not a heck of a lot from driving on properly inflated tires (maybe 90,000,000 barrels annually). Figure 311 years to match the foregone production. For a more interesting take, check Professor Hinderacker's calculations in the link above. Be throws in oil shale, which I won't because oil shale development is going to require tons of water, a commodity scarcer even than oil in the Rockies, and figures we'll take 3,110 years to match what Obama wont drill for.

Even if you share my low opinion of the intelligence of former Harvard Law Review editors, is it possible that Obama is this dumb? I think not; I think he assumes that we are, we gun-clinging, religious fanatics who don't have the sense to live in an urban paradise like Chicago. He's trying to sell a bill of goods that seems painless: we switch a few light bulbs, check out our tire pressure every month, stop drinking bottled water and presto! The polar bears are safe. The question is, will Obama and his friends content themselves with passing out free light bulbs and tire gauges or are they preparing to shut down the western world's economy? If it were Al Gore about to be crowned emperor, I'd know exactly what we were in for. Obama remains a mystery, to me.

Anything can happen but don't count on it

156 Lockwood Road (on the corner of Sound Beach) in Riverside was originally listed in April 2007 for $5,995,000. Although I didn't give out its address in my column I did mention that, given its location on the two busiest streets in Riverside and Old Greenwich, I didn't think the seller would get that price. In fact, I thought he was friggin' loony, and neighbors who guessed which hose I was writing about agreed. It finally sold this past July for $4,100,000. Again, considering where it was built, I think the seller got lucky. Lesson is, if you're an out-of-town builder doing your first project here, don't let the magic name "Greenwich" blind you to the oldest of real estate maxims - location, location, location.

Flipping houses for fun and profit

It doesn't happen often these days, but 38 Highview Avenue in Old Greenwich was purchased by an investor couple I know (but don't, alas, represent) for $1.395M on August 16, 2004, and went to contract just 7 days after being listed this July with an asking price of $1.795M. I assume, based on it selling so quickly, that the winning bid was close to or at the full asking price. If so, that's not a bad result in this market, even knocking off 10% (a grossly pessimistic percentage) for commissions, taxes and all that. It probably doesn't hurt that the sellers are local, and one of them is both a town native and an excellent financial advisor. They picked the right property and did just fine. Nice work, if you can get it.

New vs. experienced agents

A couple of readers have asked how inquires about real estate are handled by brokerage firms here in town. Speaking only for the two or three firms whose policies I am (sort of) familiar with, here's how it works: a call comes in - Hallelujah! The Internet has killed 90% of such calls in the past five years - and is routed to whoever has "desk duty" that slot (usually, an agent holds down desk duty for 1/2 the day). In the pre-internet days, a caller stood a pretty good chance of finding an experienced agent on the line because that's where the business was - we'd run ads in local papers and those ubiquitous real estate gimme books found in supermarkets and would-be buyers had to call to find out the price (often) and the address (almost always). People volunteered for desk duty because they could count on receiving at least a couple of calls a session and, with luck, could convert the caller into a customer. That's not true today so a lot of us find we have better things to do with our time. Not all of us - I know of at least one very experienced, successful agent who still grabs the duty desk and does well at it. I personally will do it only as a matter of being a team player.

The bane of an office manager and those of us who have the misfortune of being within earshot of a telephone inquiry regarding one of our own listings is the agent who has never seen the property in question and can do no more than recite what's on the listing sheet, information that the caller, thanks to the Internet, already has. A lazy, experienced agent is no better in this regard than a new agent who hasn't troubled to personally view the inventory. If you're lucky, however, you'll find a real person who has seen the property, remembers its details and can speak English well enough to communicate that knowledge. If you find that you're getting along with that person, by all means make an appointment to see the house you called in on and perhaps others with her, regardless of whether she or he's a star performer or a novice. Enthusiasm, coupled with knowledge, will go a long way.

Two points: 1. Desk duty is very much not a "personality contest". Whoever wants to sign up for the task gets it and an ambitious, eager agent can find all the slots she wants. 2. Don't be (too) afraid of identifying yourself and disclosing what you're looking for. One reason the Internet became so poplar, I suspect, is that buyers can search for property anonymously without fear of being hounded to all ends of the earth by a starving, desperate agent. In my experience, that usually doesn't happen - we ask, politely, if you'd like us to email you additional information on the house and whether you'd like information on other houses that seem to meet your criteria, and that's it. If you decline, we don't have caller ID and won't telephone you at 2:00 a.m. to tell you about the perfect house that just appeared nor will we appear at your daughter's christening. I did witness one agent chase a walk-in out to the parking lot and act like a Pekingese with loving on her mind, but that was once - most of the rest of us are more restrained.

So feel free to call. You'll often find a good person on the other end of the line who can give you some valuable information, free and without further obligation. If you like what hear and feel comfortable with the agent, try out a relationship for a day. If not, there are at least 999 other agents here in Greenwich twiddling our thumbs and awaiting your call.

Here's a depressing opinion piece

The Wall Street Journal asks, Is John McCain Stupid?. The author concludes that he is. I'm sorry to say I agree. It probably doesn't matter, now that Obama is already fitting himself out for the dollar bill but it does seem a shame that we've ended up with a choice between a moron and a megalomaniac. of course, I have many friends in town who would respond, 'we've done the dolt, let's try the preening ward heeler." Fair enough, but I think we're heading for (more) trouble.