Thursday, October 16, 2008

More on 25 Beechcroft
Peter Janis, listing agent for this house, is miffed hopping mad. He called today to point out that I haven't been in the house to appreciate its quality and that, in his opinion, the price of this house has nothing to do with "the numbers". With deference to Peter, whom I like and know to be a good, knowledgeable agent, I think numbers do control for at least two reasons. First is the affect a sale across the street for $6.2 has on a house going for $7.950. The lower priced house may indeed be, as someone described it, "a total fiasco" but what does the buyer know? Two 9,000 sq. ft houses, both brand new, one on a pond and the other across the street from it, how much does a little body of water add in value? I suspect that the answer is, "not $1,750,000". One can point out all the special features in a house, its superb quality and its great flow, all for naught. At least in my experience, the buyer will still ask, "so why would I pay that much more? They both have plasma TVs in the master bedroom, right?"

The second reason numbers count is that bank appraisers count them. These guys can't get into the houses they base their comps on so they mostly ignore special details built into the house they're examining. Does #16's construction match that of #25? They don't know, so they don't care. They look for the most recent sale in the neighborhood, calculate its square footage and age, toss a little pixie dust into the air and presto! They have a value. In this case, the appraiser need merely look across the street to see a house the same size and age of the subject property and, when he learns that it sold just last week for $6.2 million, he's going to be inclined to value the house he's appraising at close to the same price. Or so I think. I'm wrong on all sorts of things (like how to spell Patrick Daniel Moynihan) and I could be all wet on this one. I don't want to see Peter or his listing encounter difficulty; I pointed out the two houses merely to illustrate what I fear will become the dreaded domino effect in Greenwich housing, as more spec builders dump their projects for whatever they can get.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm sure Peter will read this and understand - Chris - you're a real nice guy - and mean no harm!

Chris Fountain said...

That's not been my experience with other agents I've offended but what the heck.

Anonymous said...

So be it - Chris - I like:
Live and Be Happy! :) A-long with Smile and Be Happy - Too :)

Anonymous said...

What is absolutely amazing to me is that “Peter” thinks that buyers haven’t a clue and if only you would just keep your mouth shut all will be fine.

Generally speaking, anyone spending multi-millions on a house didn’t get to that position by being clueless. The fact that “Peter” thinks your blog comment is going to let out the “little secret” on his listing and tell the world the market is changing suggests to me that he needs to wake up to the reality of the situation.

Retired IB’er

Anonymous said...

Hmmm. IIRC, Peter Janis grew up not far from 25 Beechcroft, if it's the same family I knew. He should know more than anyone what Beechcroft is worth. I go by that house constantly to/from work, and it is unattractive, too overwhelming for the lot, and now looks directly into the living room of the house across the pond.

A buyer nowadays isn't going to be seduced into paying $1.75 mil more for trim work, and by the way, pond = wetlands, Canada goose poop, and West Nile nowadays; this is not a large body of water we are talking about.

If your idea of how you are going to get a buyer is "look at this trim! look at the flow!" it would be like me telling you to buy IBM, which is currently trading incredibly cheaply at $90 (down from $120 a few weeks ago). It is SUCH a great growth story. It is a MUCH higher-quality company than Dell or Oracle. It should be trading at $110, because Dell & Oracle's multiple is too low for IBM.

But guess what? THe market says $90. That is where the market clears no matter what I say about IBM's quality or how much better it is than its comparables.

It is not about the seller. Right now, like the stock market, the real estate market isn't even about what is being sold. It is about who is buying and how much they are willing to spend. That is the reality of today's market.

That house will go, max, for under $7 mil. Mariani's got Dairy Road and Sabine Farm houses he can sell you for not much more than that, and #25 is not as nice as a Mariani house, sorry.

CEA

Anonymous said...

That is true, the market will bear what the market will bear.

And I believe said realtor grew up on Parsonage across from Pinecroft, (#150, which has been totally rebuilt since), so very close to Beechcroft.