Gee, this doesn't look like any fun.

Chris Buckley fired
Christopher Buckley endorsed Barack Obama last week and has now been fired from his columnist's job at National Review, a magazine founded by William F. Buckley, Chris's father. What the F...?! I'm sensitive to the issue, fresh as I am from my own firing from the Greenwich Post for offending real estate advertisers, but you don't hire a columnist for his opinions and then fire him when he expresses that opinion. Not if you're a serious journal, you don't. Greenwich Post is just fluff, so I don't really give a hoot (and my blog is ever so much fun to write) but I subscribed to National Review for many years and was always impressed by its seriousness of purpose and excellence in writing.

I am by no means an Obama supporter, as regular readers of this blog will have suspected, but I am a huge fan of Buckley - his novels are some of the funniest works to come out of Washington ever - and if he has his doubts about McCain well, who doesn't? I would never resolve those doubts in favor of McCain's opponent but Buckley did. I'd say, "go, and sin no more" but I certainly would never stop reading him. This bitter election is causing once rational people, of all political persuasions, to lose their friggin' minds.

25 Beechcroft
Another Beechcroft spec house
This house is on the other side of Beechcroft from # 16, also a spec house, that started at $8.5 million and finally sold last week for $6.2. Undeterred by his competitor's loss, this past June this builder raised his own project's price to $7.950 from $ $7.5 million (which in turn, was an increase from the original price of $7.2). He paid $2.950 for the land back in July 2007 so I suppose he's stuck at a high price, but the sale price for the place across the street can't be encouraging.
Assuming a $400 per square foot construction cost ($3.6 million and adding in land cost of $2.950, this guy has $6,550,000 into the house before he begins considering pools, landscaping, conveyance taxes, commissions, overhead, etc. Not much wiggle room there, so he'd better hope for a (very) strong housing recovery, starting soon.

Can't we all get along?
Old folks battle it out over Obama/McCain in nursing home

George Manos, the 75-year-old Republican, told police that Edith Walker, the 73-year-old Democrat, jumped on his back and struck him in the head three to four times with her fists. Manos said two other elections workers had to pull Walker off his back, according to a report filed with Cuyahoga Falls police.

Heads slammed into walls; McCain urges supporters to "stand up and fight"; Biden calls McCain "fighting mad"; Obama supporters "ready for fight"

It's all pretty tiresome. Me? I'm going to hide from political news for the next three weeks and listen to Bob Dylan's My Back Pages on my iPod:

In a soldier's stance, I aimed my hand
At the mongrel dogs who teach
Fearing not I'd become my enemy
In the instant that I preach
My existence led by confusion boats
Mutiny from stern to bow.
Ah, but I was so much older then,
I'm younger than that now.

Yes, my guard stood hard when abstract threats
Too noble to neglect
Deceived me into thinking
I had something to protect
Good and bad, I define these terms
Quite clear, no doubt, somehow.
Ah, but I was so much older then,
I'm younger than that now.

Palmer Hill condo's revisited
Earlier there was a discussion of this project and I admitted that I knew nothing of the builder's finances but did note that it was the largest project he'd attempted, a yellow light, in my view. This reader's experience would seem to justify that caution:

I bought pre-construction and pulled out when told that the condos and townhouses that are completed would be delayed over 10-12 months for what they are calling re-design. They are pushing dirt away slowly construction to a crawl to prevent over supply. They had 40+ people committed in early 2008 and that number dropped to 20ish or so once they annouced the delay. They builders hold a 20 year option to finish phase 1, 2 and 3. they can stop construction at anytime. Alot of early investors pulled out after they started offering options as incentives.

So, porceed slowly and carefully, is my advice.

A reader asks,

This post brings up a question that has been nagging me for a while...does it make sense to put money into a now depreciating asset in anticipation of making it more desirable to sell at a later date? What determines whether or not a house is a "tear down"?

I purchased my house in the early 90's after it had been completely redone by the previous owners (perhaps making it what you referred to as antediluvian). Luckily, the previous owners were a bit ahead of their time for 1990 and we do have 12 foot ceilings in the family room, playroom, kitchen and master bedroom as well as a double height entry hall. The kitchen is "state of the art 1990 corian" but with the economy lately, I am not going to be updating the kitchen any time soon. I have re-done two of the five bathrooms recently, but I think the others need to be done so the house will show well when it eventually goes on the market. We have put a lot of money into maintenance the past 15 years and built a beautiful pool and have had a lot of landscaping done. Am I crazy to put any more money into my house now that it isn't worth what it used to be?

Probably - I've always thought that any improvements a homeowner makes should be done with an eye towards his own enjoyment of that added feature (like your pool and beautiful landscaping) rather than resale. The law of entropy ensures that whatever you put into a house will age, fall apart, or at least go out of fashion - 10-year-old master bathrooms in trophy homes look positively dated when we agents see them on tour. Of course, the homeowners have been happily splashing away in that whirlpool tub for the preceding decade and, if they weren't moving, would probably enjoy it for another decade or two without noticing that time had passed them by but buyers see it differently.
So if you want a new kitchen with granite counters and all new appliances and you plan to stick around to enjoy it, go for it. Just don't count on getting much of your investment back when you move. There are tables out there showing what percentage of the cost of an improvement you can expect to get back upon resale, and all of them are under 100% (and all of them, I assume, don't figure on your using those improvements long enough to start their deterioration).

If I had a house that I was planning to sell soon I would not put much money into it except to fix obvious structural flaws, like a failed paint job, a rotten porch, a crumbling foundation, whathaveyou (I purposefully mention some big ticket items because these are things that really will hurt your resale value and should be addressed, regardless of expense). I would certainly not waste money on a new kitchen - the would-be buyers probably have different needs and taste than you and updating baths, while nice and which might make your house easier to sell, will not return any gain. I've written before of houses I've seen that didn't sell and whose owners were persuaded by their agent to do all these things I've just cautioned against. Now they have a house that, overpriced for the neighborhood to begin with, is even more out of whack. Far better to have cut the price $150,000 than to pour that same sum into a sinking ship. Price it right, sell it and move on - you can put your cash into the new house.

What makes a tear down? In happier days, any older house that sat on decent land was quarreled over by builders and first time home buyers alike - picture sea gulls fighting over a fish carcass. Now that the builders are on hiatus there are fewer tear downs and a much better opportunity for young families who can't afford a mansion to move in, maybe add that new kitchen you so wisely avoided, and live happily ever after. Personally, I like that development; I represent a couple of builders, whom I like and admire, but I also live in this town and I'd be glad to see the return of "normal" families.

Give my regards to Billy Joel
Realogy shutters its Corcoran branch in Hampton Bays . Things aren't going swimmingly for Realogy, which owns Sotheby's, Coldwell Banker, Century 21 and Better Homes & Garden Realty and is in turn owned by Apollo management which is shuttering 317 Linen's & Things stores. Leon Black, Chairman of Apollo and known in certain circles as "Papa Sotheby's" is reported to have said, "Oops! But what's a piddly $1.3 billion mistake - you been following Lehman stock lately?"

It's estimated that all 17,500 Linen's employees will lose their jobs. "Oops" indeed.

So what's wrong with my house? Nothing!
There's a house for sale, and I don't want to embarrass its owner by giving its address, that's been on the market for well over a year. It was originally priced at just over $6 million and now, a couple of brokers later, it's down to $4 1/2. Trouble is, I think it's still too high. The place was built for its current owners nearly 20 years ago and, in terms of style and what today's buyers are looking for, that's antediluvian. Tomorrow's taste may change again but for now, this is little more than a building lot, on a nice, but not great, street. It was crazy to price it at $6 million to begin with and with building lots on Round Hill Road going unsold for $3.5, I doubt this one, in an inferior location, will see much action. Just my opinion, and I certainly wish the seller the best of luck, but somewhere along the line, the market will speak loudly enough for this seller to hear it.

(Click to enlarge only known photo of Jeffrey Gendell)

Now he tells us: "Mistakes were made."

Greenwich resident (7.27 acres in RA-2 zone, 5 bedroom, 6 bath brick colonial circa 1936 - ironically enough, that would mean it was built in the last Great Depression) Jeffrey Gendell's hedge fund, Tontine Associates, is down a wee bit this year: 65%, as of September 30, and possibly a bit more today, say what? He's certainly made tons of money for himself and his investors over the past 10 years so I'm not going to lose sleep over the possibility that he'll have to move from that colonial. But I was struck by this quote:

[Gendell's] fund is named after 17th century Italian banker Lorenzo de Tonti, who invented an annuity where several partners invest and receive annual dividends. As each investor dies off their share is credited to the remaining partners, leaving the last man alive with all the money. The name is a play on Gendell’s desire to be the “last investor standing.”

What do I know? Maybe being 65% down for the year is to be on top of the heap right now and Greenwich is indeed hosting the last money manager still paying his groundskeepers. I never could figure out hedge funds but I feel better about that ignorance now that I know that they couldn't either.

16 Beechcroft
Beechcroft (behind North Street's St. Michael Church) has seen a wave of new construction lately and this spec house was in that wave. Priced at $8.5 million when it came on the market in June, 2007 2008, its builder must have grown tired of waiting: he sold it yesterday for $6.150 million; 28% off. Hope his profit margin was a big one.

Price reductions!
Some readers tell me they find this topic boring. I think it illustrates two things: the danger of overpricing your house to begin with; and what's happening to the market. Those who disagree are urged to skip this post and come back later.
42 Richmond Hill Road. original price $15.9 million; as of today, $9.950 - 37.5% off. Remember, if the first price is ridiculous, a huge price reduction is not necessarily an indication of how much the market has dropped. Still, someone must have received a pretty hefty dose of reality out there on Richmond Hill.
45 Baldwin Farms South. Original price last January, $9.750. Today, $6.450; 34% drop.
38 Khakum Woods, land. Original price $8.5, today, $5.5; 35% drop. The pretty house pictured above is an artist's idea of what a house might look like, if it were built. As it is, you get a foundation only. Considering that the current seller paid $4.8 million for the lot in May, 2005, in a stronger market, I'm not sure that's enough.

There were another 17 price changes reported today, but these were the most interesting.
Update: Zillow.com
If you believe Zillow, 45 Baldwin Farms should be worth only $4.694 million but if I were the builder I wouldn't despair: Zillow has him in Glenville, rather than off Round Hill Road, and uses houses on such desireable spots as Thunder Mountain Road to compare value. Bah, humbug. Its possible that in this market their pessimism might just prove out, but I'd be more confident in their calculations if they got the location right.

ACORN attempts to register Mickey Mouse to vote
ACORN and the Demmerkrats say, "nothing to see here, move along, move along", but haven't yet commented (to my knowledge) on this story:Indiana registers give up screening 5,000 ACORN-submitted registrations after the first 2,100 proved bogus. That's right - every single one. The story omits, by the way, to mention that ACORN works for only one candidate - wonder who that is?
I've been posting these stories for awhile now, but here's a Complete Guide to ACORN's Fraud.
Of course, as ACORN keeps working, no guide can be complete. For instance, there's this.

Turns out that “Doodad Pro” and “Good Will” are not the only phony contributors to Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. The New York Times finally bestirred itself to apply some basic investigative journalism attention to the Democratic presidential nominee’s donor list. The Times found nearly 3,000 other questionable donors like “Jgtj Jfggjjfgj” and “Dirty West” after what the paper admitted was just a cursory look at the Illinois senator’s September financial filings. But then Times reporters Michael Luc and Griff Palmer revealed an incredible level of naivety by stating “it is unclear why someone making a political donation would want to enter a false name.”
Unclear? What other motive could there be for using a phony name and a nonexistent address to make multiple small donations using a single credit card than to evade U.S. election laws? Such journalistic gullibility may explain why bloggers have been on this story for months and the Times is only now noticing. The Atlas Shrugged blog first broke the story of such suspicious donors behind Obama back in July after noticing little gems like this in the Illinois senator’s official FEC filings:

Name: Hbkjb, jkbkj
City: Jkbjnj
Works for: Kuman Bank
Occupation: Balanon Jalalan
Amount: $1,077.23

In case you are wondering, there is no such thing as the Kuman Bank. It is difficult to see how the Obama campaign could have mistakenly accepted such an obviously duplicitous donation - and thousands more like it - in good faith. Yet the campaign is now claiming to be the victim of “Internet fraud.”

Then there’s the question of whether foreign nationals are contributing to the Obama campaign. There is more than enough evidence to warrant a full-scale investigation by the Federal Election Commission, including the $32,332.19 that appears to have come from two brothers living in a Hamas-controlled Palestinian refugee camp in Rafah, GA (that’s Gaza, not Georgia). The brothers’ cash is part of a flood of illegal foreign contributions accepted by the Obama campaign. Potentially at issue, according to a complaint filed last week by the Republican National Committee, is as much as half of the $427 million he’s already collected. In any case, a complete FEC audit became an even more urgent matter after MSNBC reported that Obama’s Muslim outreach director quietly met with top Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) officials in an uncharacteristically unpublicized event in Springfield, Virginia on September l5th. The FEC’s primary job is to protect the integrity of our federal election process. With this many red flags flying and barely three week left before election day, there’s no time to lose if voters are to have all the information at hand before casting their ballots.

Obama - New Politics, for a change.

As usual, great insight and commentary, this time on corporate (and governmental) owning up.
From my favorite blogger,James Lileks

The theme of the conversation was responsibility, and why no one in the current crisis seems willing to own up to this mess. I said that no one could see an advantage to admitting culpability, however small, and if I had thought of it I’d have brought up the Japanese; can’t have a big failure over there without someone sweating, bowing, apologizing, banging his head into the table, generally behaving as though he deserved to be stoned. And those are the showy ones who earn only contempt; it's the guys who go home and hang themselves that really get a round of applause. It’s almost impossible to imagine that here, what with the diminished likelihood of hosswhipping, or a dispassionate, sustained interlude of public caning. If we interviewed any of the people responsible for this situation and asked them what they planned to do now, we wouldn't be surprised if they said they were going to Disneyworld.

Who's crying now?

This was reported by the Wall Street Journal at least a year ago but I'm delighted the man's troubles continue.
Oil production slumps 25% under Chavez. And it will continue to drop, which is what happens when your fire all the people who know how to produce something and replace them with political know-nothing appointees. I'm sorry for the people of Venezuala but many of them thought a free lunch was their due. El wrongo, and oil's price is plummeting. Hee hee.

Do "Green" houses command a premium?
This story from Australia suggests they do, but I have my doubts. I've seen no evidence of any such premium paid in Greenwich and even down under, there seems to be more poll evidence than actual sales. Yes, people say they'll pay more, but that may be (okay, I suspect it is ) because no one wants to admit to a stranger that they're a coal burning ecological vandal.

As I've said before, I think energy efficient homes are a great idea and I personally know, because I've done so, that I would pay extra to cut drafts by installing new windows, adding vapor barriers and extra insulation and all that. But again, when I've compared the sales prices of truly innovative houses with those of their plebian brothers, I detect no difference. This is also true, by the way, when it comes to quality of construction: buyers look at the location, the number of bedrooms and how many plasma TVs are hooked into the master bedroom and that's about it. Quality, like energy efficient, more comfortable features, seems to fall into the "nice to have" rather than "must have" category, at least when people are speaking with their wallets and not to pollsters.
Update: (10:32 pm)
It seems to me that a warm feeling that one's doing her bit for the environment only goes so far. Witness, for example the willingness of most residents to wash their garbage and place it in a blue recycling bin and then fly a private jet to Colorado to ski at an area whose development raped and destroyed a pristine mountain (I'm much more of a backpacker than a skier, obviously). But self interest always rules, so if I were a "green" builder or represented a green house, I'd translate the home's ecological virtues into dollars and cents and put it all on a single sheet of paper. Most buyers worry about monthly payments and if that gas bill is going to be less by, say, $400 a month, put it in writing and win a sale.
Can a builder quantify these amounts? I don't know - he (or the window, furnace and super-insulation manufacturers) should be able to; if not, then it's all a bunch of hot air, you should pardon the expression.

20 Carpenter's Brook

Does this look like a $4.0 million family room to you?
It didn't to me when I first saw this place (convenient to I-684, if you like that sort of thing. Can't hear your spouse nag, for instance), nor did the rest of the house. The market must have agreed because it hasn't sold and has slowly declined in price from $4 million to $2.4 million. Once again, don't interpret this as evidence of a collapsing market but rather, an unwise pricing decision made long ago.
Update: My readers are right: this is the house shown in the McClatchy forecolosure vido (check comments for link, if interested). Their eyes are better than mine - I toured the house (a year or so ago but that's no excuse) and didn't recognize it - they did. Off to get new glasses.

A reader asks, "what is the Golden Triangle?" According to this Wikipedia entry,

The Golden Triangle is one of Asia's two main illicit opium-producing areas. It is an area of around 350,000 square kilometres that overlaps the mountains of four countries of Southeast Asia: Myanmar (Burma), Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand. (Other interpretations of the Golden Triangle also include a section of Yunnan Province, China.) Along with Afghanistan in the Golden Crescent and Pakistan, it has been one of the most extensive opium-producing areas of Asia and of the world since the 1950s.

Oh! You mean Greenwich? In Greenwich, my source for all things pertaining thereto, Tom Gorin of Cleavland, Duble & Arnold, tells me that Mrs. Duble herself used to refer to "the Golden Circle", an area encompassing the land between North Street and Riversville Road and extending south to the Lake Avenue circle. According to Tom, the term dates back at least to the 1930s and he's yet to figure out who was left out when the circle was chopped into a triangle. Did it extend north of the as-then-unbuilt Merritt Parkway? Neither of us knows but I've always heard it applied to the mid country, so I think not.

But that was then. Now, realtors and builders use the term pretty loosely to add cachet to whatever they're peddling. Sort of like that standard advertising phrase, "on the Stamford/Greenwich border". You know, reading that, that the land's in Stamford. No self-respecting Greenwich realtor ever admits that Stamford even exists.

Perhaps it is a circle after all: A drug buyer seeking wares today can probably have as much success in Greenwich's Golden Triangle as that of Asia's. Go figure.

"Not My Job" contest, Riverside entry
The town is apparently trying to lay down a dividing line on the curve on Riverside Avenue just before St. Paul's Church. If they follow its guidance, drivers will swerve back and forth from one side of the road to the other, repeatedly. I'll stop by later and attempt a shot with my iPhone's camera but here's a snap from the web that seems to sum up the attitude of our line painters.

Newspapers' Internet Revenue Declining
I wish traditional newspapers well - without them, I'd have a far less interesting day and because I have a number of friends and relatives earning their daily bread at them, I'd be sorry to see them go. But they, for the most part, aren't adapting well to the Internet. Greenwich Time, for instance, insists on running the most annoying ad imaginable on its front web page. Click on to read and a fake "post-it" note from Greenwich Hospital scrolls around the screen. It's impossible to shut the damn thing off and impossible to read while the ad runs its course. How inviting.

And that paper is not alone in posting selectively. Columnists often aren't up on the net, articles disappear while moving from hard copy to the electronic version, what news there is is often posted hours after the fact, reader feedback is curtailed and made awkward to submit, "registration" is often required - who the hell wants to submit a full personal bio to some stranger just to read a story? If the guys running these things ever checked, they'd discover that a surprisingly large percentage of their readership was 90-year-old women living in the North Pole; now there's some useful information - and on and on.

Can newspapers save themselves? I don't know but, unless they get with it, I fear not.

I like this trend
God knows what will happen to this happy line by 4:00 PM, but things are looking brighter this morning. I was thinking over the weekend - an unusual activity for me but it was a boring, if quite sunny weekend and ... - As a real estate agent, I'll do okay no matter what happens to prices, once we get some stability. If prices stay really, really low, Greenwich will still attract buyers and they'll be more of them who can afford to live here. I'd miss the occasional sweet commission from that $7 million sale but the bread and butter of real estate, prior to the run up of the past two or three years, was the $1.5 -$2.5 house. If that range drops to $750 - $1.5 well, I'll have to sell more houses to make the same money, but life will go on. I need to keep busier anyway, as some of the postings on this blog will attest.

But I do worry. There are 3 Fountain households in Greenwich and it's been comforting to reflect on their "value". We all felt, if not rich, assured that there were assets there to fall back on. I'm much more worried, however, by the toll this is all taking on my friends' jobs. Already I know folks who've lost their employment not only on Wall Street but in all the peripheral areas - career placement, for example, contracts when no one's hiring. Builders are hurting, and carpenters, and who wants to hire consultants when business is in the toilet? Except for our public schools, however, but then they're immune from this stuff.

So I hope that the panic subsides and the economy recovers. I'm not at all confident that it will; there are too many long-deferred problems out there to make anyone sanguine, but I can, and so I do, hope. Not much else to do.

546 North Street
A reader asked about this property and I'm happy to write about it because I like it very much. It's set way off North Street on 5 1/2 acres, was built in 1924 and, although the listing sheet makes no mention of it, has been maintained and updated through the years. Great yard, very nice house, good location. It's my own firm's listing, just so you know, but very much not my own listing - I wish. Originally listed at $7.995 million it's come down 25% to $5.995. I'm not blowing my own horn here, but its new price is much closer to what I suggested when I participated in a price opinion inspection. Sometimes sellers, particularly estates, have their own idea of value, but even they have to hear the marketplace's response, eventually.

Anyway, it's a grand old place, in very good shape, and I think it speaks to what Greenwich used to look like. Which I consider to be a good thing; others' opinions may differ.

I posted on this yesterday but if you missed it,...Britain takes over Royal Bank of Scotland. 60% anyway. What will this do to the corporate headquarters in Stamford? Beats me, but I would not plan on setting up a catering service for traders on site, at least for now.

17 Khahum Wood Rd
The Winner!
In an earlier posting I stated that the biggest loser in price cuts was 66 Cherry Valley Road, listed for $20 million and sold for $11.4 million, or 57% of its asking price. I forgot (because its listing was deleted) 17 Khakum Wood Road, whose builder, Mark Mariani, originally listed it at $25 million and, after slowly marking it down to $13.5 before deleting it from our MLS records, eventually sold it privately for $12.5 million. That success earns Mariani the coveted "What Was I Thinking Award" for 2005, 2006 and 2007 (the years he first listed it, reduced it and sold it). That's a trifecta, no? When this first came on the market I suggested in print that there were equal or better houses available for half its price, a comment that caused the builder to permanently ban me or any member of my firm from the privilege of viewing his subsequent creations. I paid no heed, of course, but I did take a certain satisfaction in seeing where this house ended up. Instead of banning me, maybe he should have listened.

Update: A reader asks how this particular Waterloo compares with Antares own fiasco on Langhorne Lane and, I do so hate to break this to Mr. Mariani, but it appears that Antares has edged him out of the title by a hair. Langhone was listed for $25 million in April '07, increased (Antares genius at work)to $28 million that October and sold this August for $13.75, or 49% of the highest listing price. Mariani may squeal, but I decide the rules in this contest and I've determined that calculating mark downs will be done using the highest, not the first, asking price. Antares is out of the residential construction business now but they were certainly competitive for the title when they were building. 16 Cherry Blossom Road, for instance, part of their failed mansion project in our N.E. corner (which any realtor could have told them was a dead spot for sales) listed at $10.9 and sold 1 1/2 years later in December '07 for $6.6 million, 60% of its asking; not enough to win the award but a darn good try. I'll miss those boys.

Here's a guy who says the stock market's about where it should be - 15 X earnings and you should wait for it to really drop so you can pay discount prices, not retail. Interesting.

Oh, the humanity!
Judge denies terrorist internet access at Gitmo

More on ACORN voter fraud
Let ACORN bring it on, we have computers that will screen out their phony registrants. So who's worried?

Maybe we in Connecticut should be: 7 year old Bridgeport girl gets an ACORN vote. Her family doesn't know who forged her name but ACORN filed it.

Palmer Hill Condos - yeah or nay?
A reader writes,
"You seem to know a thing or two about the whole business of real estate. How remarkable is this?....
"Palmer Hill Marks 50 Sale...this community of Stamford homes has sold one quarter of its offerings with over 50 sales since September 2007, and 10 sales in August alone."

I dunno. I've been waiting for this project to move closer to finish - right now, it's mostly piles of dirt, and original completion date was supposed to be 2002 - before making up my mind. But I saw that same press release last month and it's pretty encouraging; with the warning, of course, that there's often a large gap between press releases and fact. That's shocking, I know, but I refer you to some of the Antares PR of last year. I mean, does this sound like the words of an actual buyer or something dreamed up by a flack?

Tom Ferris is one of the first to purchase and move into a Palmer Hill home: “I looked all over Fairfield County, and couldn’t find anything like Palmer Hill,” Ferris said. “There are very few new town homes in the area so convenient and welcoming.”
He noted the thoughtfulness in the planning of his Avon model; the two car garage, the patio and attention to detail and design, all caught his attention. “The New England and Nantucket inspired style is lovely; it embraces the location of the homes.”
Ferris even chose to include an elevator as an added option in his town home.The location of the Connecticut homes is another benefit for buyers. “I’m right between 95 and the Merritt, so everything is very accessible. My family in New York City and New Jersey can visit too,” Ferris said.

Still Edgehill, right next door, has done well so there's clearly a market for this neighborhood, right on the Stamford line. I'm sure there's a large number of older buyers who'd like to downsize yet don't need, or want the care services provided by Edgehill (and those services don't come cheap). I liked the layout of these units when I first saw hem on paper two years ago and it looks like it will be a nice community when finished. So, if there's an advantage to buying in this pre-construction stage (I don't know either way) then it probably makes sense to at least look into the place. If their funding is secure and they can finish the job, it should all work out well.
Update: I've been Googling these guys and haven't found much, but according to this previous press release, they'd sold 33 units by January of this year, so if they've sold 50 now, that, by my math, means 17 sales in the past 10 months. I might expect sales to increase as the buildings draw nearer to completion but I'm no developer; nor am I a public relations writer.
Update IIThe original completion date of 2002 was derailed by years of litigation brought by opponents of the project - I should have remembered that because Greenwich was one of the most vocal of those opponents. For the builder, Sun Homes, this will be the largest project they've tackled - apparently the partner, Buckingham Partners, is a New Jersey-based investment company. I don't have access to financial data that would be useful here but if you do, go delve in and report back!

Say, here's an idea!.
Secretary Paulson, admitting that his first, $750 billion plan didn't work and his second, nationalizing our banks, is drawing criticism from conservatives, has reached deep and come up with a third alternative (announced by Dick Cheney, who abandoned his usual mufti for the occasion): Replace capitalism with Islamic financial system

"The Western system has collapsed and we need a new, complete economic philosophy as well as spiritual strength," Cheney pointed out. "Under this plan, all riches would be ours; the Islamic nation has all or nearly all the oil, so if we take them over, we'll have an advantage and an economic philosophy that no one else has. Bombing starts in half an hour."

What, again?
posted by Amanda Von Stuckle

So I was having lunch at Baang! with Kathy Lee and Carlos Santana and naturally, talk got around to this economic thing (Kathy Lee told me it's really bad). Carlos came up with that saying he's so famous for, "those who repeat history are doomed to forget it" - gee, I remember learning that one all the way back in Miss Porter's School!

Anyway, George, Major dee to the stars, gave me a copy of this article from The New York Times. At least I think it's the Times - sure doesn't look like Variety or the Hollywood Reporter to me! I'll leave you with a quote from it. Chow!

The New York Times, Oct. 26, 1929:

“Cautioning against hysterical selling, brokerage houses in their market letters this morning will strike a note of optimism, advising the purchase of seasoned stocks at the present low levels. The public is strongly urged not to liquidate stocks in the present market.”

Byram Condos
A readers asks about the recent contracts on two units here. His questions and my answers:

"How long is it between contract and closing? Months?"
1-3, usually closer to 1
"What attracted buyers to those particular middle units?"
Who knows?
"Is the school district the "magnet"?"
No

Canadian discord explained
No wonder they're fighting about politics north of the border, turns out that their own real estate market's got them all aflutter. The situation up there's no clearer than down here, and that puts folks on edge.

The Russians aren't coming! The Russians aren't coming!
For now, anyway. Moscow market is tanking.

Moscow
In the Russian capital, wealthy oligarchs have long propped up the high-end real estate market. But agents are now getting nervous. The Russian stock market has plummeted since June and in August the rouble suffered its worst monthly decline for more than nine years.

Would-be billionaires are too busy covering their professional concerns to consider property purchases. And yet, even as developers cancel projects, the supply of new housing units continues to grow, by 2.1 per cent in September to about 27,400 listings, with many more new high-end condos still set to open.

Natia Ratishvili, an estate agent at Knight Frank in Moscow with nearly a dozen properties priced above $4m on her books, says enquiries have fallen considerably in the past few weeks.

“One buyer agreed to put an offer in on an $8.6m apartment and then pulled out as the stock market started falling,” she says. “He really panicked and changed his mind at the last second and we’re beginning to see more and more of this behaviour.”

Staff meeting

I suppose this is a good idea, but what does it say about the Google geniuses who thought of it in the first place?
Google introduces eMail blocker for drunks

Uh oh
What do they know about this week's market that we don't?

Golden Gate Bridge supervisors vote to install suicide nets.

In Canada?!
Brakes sabotaged, telephone lines cut, politics in Canada get ugly and dangerous. Who in Canada has anything to fight about? What is there in Canada to fight about, other than whether to glop ketchup or gravy on your poutine?

Mansion Sales over the years
I recently tossed off some sales figures for large houses and opined that it was my sense that they were way off. A reader questioned exactly how many high end houses had sold in recent years and today I checked the statistics; never as much fun as just making stuff up but it's nice to do occasionally, if only to retain a shred of credibility.
So Here Goes:
2004: 122 houses sold over $4 million and of that number, 7 were over $8 million
2005: 130 houses sold over $4 million and of that number,28 were over $8 million
2006: 118 houses sold over $4 million and of that number,22 were over $8 million
2007: 139 houses sold over $4 million and of that number,34 were over $8 million
2008: 61 houses sold over $4 million and of that number, 16 were over $8 million
We've had 6 sales over $4 million since September 1 and 3 of those were over $8

It's interesting to note that wildly over-pricing houses is not new in 2008. The winners of this category in 2004 were (drum roll, please) 460 North Street, asked $12.5 million, got $8.6 million, or 68%, and 209 Taconic, asked $15.750 million, got (671 days later) $9.750 million or 62%.

All time winner for the entire 4 year period must go to 66 Cherry Valley Road which asked $20 million and sold for $11.4, or 57% of the original price. Funny thing: I first saw some of these houses when I was pretty new to this business and thought, "that'll be a cold day in Hell". If I can figure it out, what's wrong with the listing agents? You'd think they were doing it deliberately or something.

Scraping the bottom of the barrel?

Here are some folks who think it's time to invest in stocks. Makes sense to me, but what about Greenwich real estate? I remain cautious.

No doubt about it, Greenwich prices have softened but, with the exception of some spec houses and a few anxious owners, the price reductions so far aren't stirring many buyers into action and I don't believe they should. Even many of the massive cuts I've seen recently are simply lowering properties to where they should have been when they were first listed a year (or more) ago - they still don't reflect current market conditions.

I do disagree with some of my readers, though, who think that, just as stocks are trading for ten cents on the dollar houses should too. That's not going to happen or, if it does, you won't want to live in Greenwich anyway. I'd be on the lookout for prices that are, and this really is just a top of the head guess, 20% off three years' ago prices. There's bound to be a floor out there somewhere and I do hope that we'd be approaching that floor at that level. If I'm wrong, as is so often the case, well hey - you'll still be living in a great house that you wouldn't have been able to afford in 2005, so you can enjoy your new digs, including that swimming pool and tennis court, while you wait the market out. How bad is that?

South Sea Bubble

It won't make you feel better, but here's an interesting view of history
The NYT's Joe Nocera ran a column yesterday on financial bubbles and panics of the past. It's a nice stroll down Memory Lane but for the best history of this sort of nonsense, I recommend MacKay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. My father handed it to me when I was about 14 and it changed my view of investing (and investors) permanently. Great read and in print since 1841 so somebody else agrees (but I do wonder whether anyone currently gnawing their fingernails and packing survival kits has actually read it).

(Two Greenwich residents, one named Lauer, who have absolutely nothing to do with this story)


7 Dwight Lane
Soon - to -be felon Michael Lauer may have lost his Greenwich house but he's still got a fan following in the financial press. Nothing new here but it must be reassuring to Mr. Lauer that he hasn't entirely disappeared into obscurity. Yet.

Short sales, or scooping up bargains when the homeowner is screwed
A reader asked about short sales, which occur when a borrower's house is worth less than what he owes the bank (picture that 6 year car lease in year 5, when the ol' SUV's worth $3,000 and you're still in the hole to the bank $12 grand). Our GMLS has added the category "short sale" to listings in order to alert agents that they're in for a long haul on that listing - these things are tough to negotiate because there are often multiple parties involved and none want to lose money, which they'll have to do, if the sale is to go through.

I believe that the category was added proscriptively: everyone "knows" we're about to see a flood of these sales but, so far, they're still rare. May that continue.

This company claims to act as a go-between for buyers and sellers in short sales situations. I know nothing about them but one principal is coming to Raveis next Tuesday to tell us what she does and how she does it so I'll have a better picture then, maybe. Details to follow, as they say. I note that their website has no Greenwich listings; that may be because we don't have any short sales right now or, more likely, this company doesn't. The latter would explain why they're coming down to speak with us - they want business.

One thing that does set my teeth a little on edge is this quote from the company's website:

CT Property Network
is a network of creative, friendly real estate investors, with heart.

Believing in tooth fairies is probably what got you into trouble with your sub-prime mortgage to begin with.

Hmm - pretty small area for a riot - do you suppose they used wiffle ball bats? Riots resume in acre after lull

I blame Bush

Record snowfall in Boise

Things are tougher than I'd thought

Under the headline AIG Gallows Humor Gives Bankers a Laugh the Washington Post reports this bit of hilarity:

Insurance giant American International Group (AIG.N), on the receiving end of a multi-billion dollar bailout from the Federal Reserve, was trying hard on Saturday to look on the bright side of life.

"Credit markets do not function. Why not, because the word credit comes from credibility," AIG Vice Chairman Jacob Frenkel told a group of top global bankers at a lively luncheon where he took a philosophical view of the upheaval in financial markets.

"The left side of the balance sheet has nothing right and the right side of the balance sheet has nothing left. But they are equal to each other. So accounting-wise we are fine," he told the Institute of International Finance.

Hoo hoo hoo! These bankers - what cut-ups!

You want the latest banker joke? "So I went out to buy a toaster yesterday and they gave me a bank."
Ha ha ha

Two morons who didn't read the headlines below:
Gunmen tie up, rob real estate salesman

What'd they get, his Timex and IRS bills?

News you can use:
Use caution when buying property
Suddenly, it's a buyer's market
Economy slows real estate sales

Slow day for headline writers, too.

Okay, let's put the bailout on hold and try nationalizing the banks . Does anyone else remember Richard Nixon's wage and price controls? I can't stand the Democrats but I sometimes think Republicans are more dangerous precisely because they pay lip service to capitalism and free enterprise.

They've got your back

Here they come!
The Demmerkrats, confident of victory, are already planning to reconvene Congress after the election so they can add an additional $150 billion to our budget woes. This is in addition to the $150 billion they added to the $750 billion bailout bill and is doubtless only a taste of what they have in store for us. Yes, paradise is growing closer but there is one consolation: even if they confiscate every penny of income over $100,000 they can't possibly fund all this largess, so perhaps the booboise and illegal aliens will have to pitch in. I wonder how popular some of these massive giveaway programs will be then?

Stale news?
Greenwich Time's real estate reporter devoted yesterday's column to an upcoming auction of an unfinished New Canaan mansion.
Sure you could have read about that house right here on this blog one week ago but then you'd have missed the lyrical descriptive style that is GT's hallmark:

A 20,000-square-foot lakeside chateau in New Canaan is going to auction at noon Thursday, Oct. 16, through United Country The Redfield Group in Gadsden, Ala. Beyond a stone wall and spruces that shade from green to blue are six acres of woodlands with a private, tree-fringed lake and a French Manor house with six bedrooms, seven full baths, three half-baths, an infinity swimming pool and a guest house.

The owners are moving abroad, and because the main house is not finished inside, the buyer will choose interior finishes, fixtures, trim and flooring. Completion of the four-level, 32-room house is estimated at $1.5 million to $3 million as planned, according to owner Emil F. Jachmann.

That's all very nice and the house itself looks nice, too, but I did enjoy one streak of independence shown by the writer: the auction house described the task of finishing what is essentially an abandoned project as an "opportunity for the buyer to select his own finishes, fixtures, trim and flooring". As reported, that came out as "the buyer will choose". So much for that opportunity.

As I suggested last week, however, at the right place, I think this would be a cool place for a few Greenwich couples, former Lehman partners, perhaps, to move into as a sort of older hippie commune. There's plenty of space and you could all get your minds off the current disaster by focusing on choosing those finishes and fixtures.

(former) Greenwich resident

Oh, Great. Guess who's coming for another bite of Greenwich taxpayer?
Connecticut Pension funds scandalously underfunded

[State Treasurer Denise Nappier] didn't quite say it, but taxpayers should be more than worried; they should be freaking out. For even before the market crash the state pension fund did not have enough investment to meet its commitments, pension underfunding being a chronic scandal in Connecticut, most other states, and the federal government. And should the pension fund not cover those commitments, they would have to be met from the state's general fund, which would mean more taxes.

The pensions enjoyed by Connecticut's public employees -- pensions called defined-benefit plans, plans that pay a fixed level of benefits, a level long known in advance -- are lavish and a glaring manifestation of the disconnect between the government class and the working class. For most working-class people long ago were left to fend for themselves [empasis added] with 401(k) and individual retirement account pension savings plans, plans that guarantee no benefits at all, plans whose benefits vary with their investment success. When markets fall, as they are falling now, the working class, unlike the government class, does worry about its retirement, and then has to worry again as part of the taxpaying class, even as public employees need not worry.

At her meeting with the legislators Treasurer Nappier disclosed that there is even more for Connecticut's taxpayers to worry about. That's because for what may have been the first time, state government recently was unable to refinance debt, about $400 million. While this problem was not peculiar to Connecticut but rather a matter of the breakdown of the credit markets nationally, it was still, as state Rep. Arthur O'Neill, R-Southbury, remarked, "really scary."

I don't often agree with our elected representatives, but I'd say "really scary" sums up the situation neatly.

Stalwart souls on the other side of the world, too.
Turns out that even in New Zealand they're building palaces and the owners and agents there are as obtuse as here. 50 $10 million + houses are on the market. One lady, unable to unload her place since 2005, has successively raised her price until it's now over $33 million. That ought to do it. Agents say they aren't worried because "international buyers are sure to bail them out: money means nothing to these folks." I anticipate that the next press release from the Antares Group wil originate from Auckland.

Happy Lesbians
Before you all start enjoying the Ct. Supreme Court's latest abrogation arrogation of power, you might want to consider what I warned about yesterday: The ruling increases the chances of voters approving a constitutional convention. Where, I predict, all hell will break loose.

Byram Building Committee's other project.
When first announced in November, 2006, this project was estimated to be completed in "12-14 months". Things must have gotten a bit off track because actual construction didn't begin in April, 2007 but that should still have seen books and patrons returning from exile in May, 2008. The latest communication from the Library board looks forward to completion in the month of September. I'm no building expert but looking at the project's current condition, I don't think it's finished yet. In fact, it doesn't look close to being finished. I understand that the geniuses working on Hamilton Avenue School may have been distracted by that disaster and lost their focus on this one, but it still makes me wonder at the ineptitude of our various citizens groups that run municipal improvements in this town and whether there isn't a better way. Like hiring experienced construction contractors, for instance, and then getting out of their way?

What's happened to the Black Knight and his fellow Somali pirates?
Not much. The major powers seemed to have stopped Ukraine from paying a ransom and now the pirates threaten to blow up the ship.
Well, that would be one way to resolve it. As an aside, a "Russian Frigate" has been said to be on its way to the area for at least a week now and it still hasn't arrived. Are their ships that slow or do they just want nothing to do with this situation? Let's ask the CIA.

Don't mess with this agent!
So you work with clients for eight months, they buy nothing from you but do buy a house from another agent? If you're tempted to do this, don't try it in Colorado Springs, where a thrown-over agent recruited a couple of 13 - year -olds to spray paint and vandalize the ungrateful clients' new home.

And here's a tip for agents: if you're going to buy vandalism supplies don't pay for them with your personal check.

Here's some good news for those of us planning on sticking around. Hard times thinning real estate agent's ranks
Perhaps (and I'm hoping) the current fun will see the ladies who "do lunch" and sell a house or two every once in awhile will return to their country clubs. One lump or two?

Is there no end to this misery?

Goldman Sachs honcho puts his Nantucket manse up for sale for $55 million..

Sure, you'll be sleepless tonight worrying about this sad tale, but it may console you to learn that Goldman paid the man $56 million in 2006. With luck, his 5th wife left him some of that.

What kind of wussies are our colleges turning out these days?

Hartford: Woman slips her real estate agent marijuana-laced gingerbread and he gets ill

Who, me? Voter fraud in Connecticut
A local spokesman for Acorn (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now) denies any sort of fraud in its voter registration drives. Hartford Democrat spokeswoman Nancy DiNardi sides with Acorn:

DiNardo said Republicans are trying to make an issue out of ACORN's national registration drives because Democrats have the advantage.
"People are registering far more as Democrats than they are as Republicans," DiNardo said. "And they will throw out anything about 'voter fraud' to see what sticks on the wall."

The most recent story about ACORN is that of the man ACORN paid in cigarettes and dollar bills each time he registered - in his case, 72 times.

That's not the end of the story. As Ron Popiel would say, "but wait, there's more!"
Kansas City officials find hundreds of bogus registrations
Nevada raids ACORN offices
More registrants than voters in Indianapolis
Three ACORN workers in Seattle plead guilty to voter fraud scheme
Washington state prosecutors indict seven ACORN workers
It's worse in Kansas City:

City officials scoff at that. They say it's up to Acorn to explain why over 1,000 addresses listed on its registrations don't exist. "We met twice with Acorn before their drive, but our requests completely fell by the wayside," says Democrat Matt Potter, the city's deputy elections director. His election clerks were already putting in 13-hour work days and "dumping this on them isn't fair." In the past, several Democrats, including Mayor Francis Slay, have complained about bloated voter rolls leading to stolen votes.

So why no outcry? Because St. Obama is up to his neck in ACORN's campaign of fraud

"I've been fighting alongside ACORN on issues you care about my entire career," he told the group last November.

Indeed, in the early '90s, Obama was recruited by Talbott herself to run training sessions for ACORN activists.

ACORN also got funding from two charities, the Woods Fund and the Joyce Foundation, when Obama served on their boards, and from the Chicago Annenberg Challenge - the radical "education reform" outfit Obama ran from '95 to '99.

And any attack on Obama or ACORN is, of course, Racist!

This campaign is about race, plane and simple. ACORN is helping minorities to vote -- and guess what, that scares Republicans. Politically they fear losing elections, but this is about something much deeper.

I thought the campaign was about change.

Update: You want to know more about ACORN? Here's more about ACORN Turns out, voter registration fraud is just a sideline - they have much grander plans in store for the country. Lucky us.

He's back!

Russian's palace on Simmons Lane downsized
Only 45 toilets and three swimming pools proposed this time. The Ruble must be declining.

Darn it, first he steals my name, now he's having all the fun

Hollyoaks stars put on skimpiest threads for Chris Fountain's birthday

Meet a mortgage broker from Greenwich Bank & Trust Thursday, October 23rd
Diane Dutcher, an agent who's always dreaming up bright ideas for her listings, has arranged for a banker to discuss what's happening with mortgages these days (not all bad, or I presume the lady wouldn't agree to spend an evening talking about it). Details are in the link below but basically it's being held at 9 Boulder Brook from 5-9 PM, some form of food and beverage provided and of course, a chance to inspect the beautiful house built by Diane's client, York Construction (and an excellent firm it is), asking price, if memory serves, around $6.75 million. Temporarily a little short of cash? Come anyway for the information - Diane's not the type to lock you in a closet until you agree to buy (or if she is, she'll let you out early enough the next morning that you can still catch your train.)

Call the number on the linked flyer for a phone number to call - you don't want to arrive at 5 and learn that the dancing girls and wine aren't scheduled until 8!

Update:
Okay, that link didn't work, so here's what it says:
SECURING A MORTGAGE AMID THE BAILOUT
What the Financial Crisis Means to You… And How You Can Still Secure a Mortgage

Come hear personal mortgage banker Lisa Edson from Greenwich Bank & Trust talk about the financial bailout and mortgages and what that means to homebuyers in the Greenwich market
Also view the recently completed Classic Georgian style home by York Construction & Development. 8,600 square feet of fabulous living space, 6 bedrooms and ensuite baths, gourmet kitchen, media room, wine cellar, exercise room, and more, located in the “golden triangle” of mid-country Greenwich.

Open House: 5:00 – 9:00 p.m., Thursday, October 23

Mortgage Presentation: 7:00 p.m.

Light refreshments and hors d’oeuvres will be served

9 Boulder Brook Road

Greenwich, CT 06830

Free and Open to the Public

Call 203-698-3460 for more information

Don't you dare hurt that plant's feelings!
It's illegal in Switzerland.

ZURICH -- For years, Swiss scientists have blithely created genetically modified rice, corn and apples. But did they ever stop to consider just how humiliating such experiments may be to plants?

That's a question they must now ask. Last spring, this small Alpine nation began mandating that geneticists conduct their research without trampling on a plant's dignity.

The world's going to end soon, one way or the other.

The blame game
I like this WSJ's columnist's idea: put Chris Dodd under oath and in the witness seat. I'd like to see his pal Barney Frank in the same chair with him, goosing Connecticut's senior Senator every now and then.

Okay, this kind of sucks
Real estate impact to be "massive".

"I don't think anybody has lived through what we are living through right now unless they are 100 years old. The magnitude is so massive," said Tim Ballard, chief investment officer of Buchanan Street Partners, a Newport Beach, Calif.-based real estate subsidiary of The TCW Group Inc. of Los Angeles.

"This will affect ... job growth, consumption and other things. The [savings and loan] collapse did not have nearly the same effect," he said.

Commercial real estate is in the second or third inning of a game that might go into extra innings, industry insiders said.

The article is about commercial real estate not residential but the basic themes: no loans, need to sell, etc. are roughly the same. Note the good news buried deep within, however: there will be buying opportunities for those with access to funding.

So if I can't sell houses in this market,
maybe I'll rent them.