A reader asks, "any figures for us?" I have no idea what he means but this is a full service blog, so here you go:Female Figure

The Brooks Brother's set on a rampage - hate spills over. Racism!!

Obama supporter beaten, robbed and face mutilated

Windows shot out at Obama Campaign Manager's home

McCain supporters attack female Obama volunteer worker, strike her in face, body, throw her to ground. "It's this god damn election," one attacker explains. "It's made me so angry!"

Home, car of
Obama supporter vandalized in Maryland

Obama campaign bus shot, defaced in New Mexico

And on and on. Will this violence never end? Must we endure such hatred just as we approach the promised land? Oh, when will we learn? When will we ever le- Oh - all those reports are about attacks on McCain supporters? Well then, never mind!

Foreclosures in Greenwich?
Not a huge problem yet, and perhaps it never will be, but the Realtytrac.com site seems busier than before (hard to say because it lumps in Stamford and Port Chester when you just want to search Greenwich). It shows 525 pre-foreclosure an foreclosure properties right now which, if memory serves (and it often doesn't) is about 150 more than when I checked a month ago. Some are stale - 7 Dwight Lane has come and gone, and others were resolved. But some are recent: On October 18, a house on Tomac Lane in Old Greenwich had a lis pendens filed against it signalling foreclosure on a $2,750,000 debt (I found the exact address of the house by combining the limited information RealtyTrac provides non-paying visitors with the Greenwich Tax Assessor's on-line data base, but I won't provide further details - the owner obviously has enough problems). There's another fresh one on Dialstone Lane, in Riverside ($925,000) Havemeyer Lane, etc. Some of these debtors have a real problem: comparing their debt to the value of their homes, there may be no equity in the place, in which case you can probably expect the foreclosure to proceed.

My guess is that things are going to get worse from here because too many folks earning large-figure paychecks lived too close to the edge. Come bonus time, if there is no bonus, how is the mortgage going to get paid? I hope I'm wrong, both because I see no need to rejoice in another's misfortune and because foreclosures drag down the value of all houses in the neighborhood: $220,000 according to one report I read, and that was comparing things nationally - there's probably a worse effect on high-end towns like Greenwich.

So that's gloomy enough. We had one contract reported today, which makes three for the week. That should cheer you up.

Demmerkrats considering killing 401 (k) plans. But don't worry - they'll take care of your money for you and will pay you 3% a year. That should work every bit as well as the Social Security Trust Fund. But remember, "socialist" is just a code word for black - you criticize this plan, you ain't nothin' but a racist.

70 Pecksland

This was listed in July for $3,750,000 and sold yesterday for $3,002,000, or 80% of asking. That's a smart move from a realistic seller, I think. As an aside, you never know about personal taste in real estate. There's another house, right up the road, listed for $3.195 million. I saw both houses the same day and thought the second superior to the first. Of course, that day there was a $550,000 difference in the second house's favor, which would certainly have affected my judgment, but since either house could have been bought for $3,000,000 (I assume), clearly this buyer liked house number 1. As I said, there's a large element of personal taste in these matters.

Courtesy of a reader

OwlGore bundled up
You give me some real estate news to write about - buy a house, sell a house, sign a contract, anything - and I'll write real estate. Until then, you're stuck with fun filler; you have only yourself to blame.
Gore Effect comes to Harvard. Dictionary definition of that:

The phenomenon that leads to unseasonably cold temperatures, driving rain, hail, or snow whenever Al Gore visits an area to discuss global warming. Hence, the Gore Effect.

Addressing the efforts of the Harvard nitwits (I use their stupidity to remind myself that high SAT's are no guarantee of sound thinking - certain readers, were they to see my own test scores, would agree wholeheartedly) to keep warm during Gore's speech on global warming the author of the piece I link to says,

Cute! The best thing one can do when it's raining is to let it rain but the best thing one can do when it's warming by 0.6 °C per century is to fight the climate, to redesign the Harvard logo, to unravel the modern industrial civilization (if you allow me to exaggerate just a little bit), and to serve people hot soup and cider so that they won't freeze during the celebration of their heroic fight against warming. ;-)

To think that these kids will be running the hedge funds of tomorrow.

The Quality of Gossip is Certainly Strained
By Amanda Von Stuckle

Look: who was it who first reported a Kathy Lee sighting at CVS?. Moi! Now that Greenwich Post's gossip reporter has taken to staking out my snooping grounds and - big whoop - she says she saw that poor old former baseball player, Lee Mazzilli at the same place, buying Grecian Formula 101 or something. Look, bitch, I'll give you Valbella's but stay the F off my turf! CVS is mine, all mine.

Regis's house, by the way, is on the market for $5.4 million not, as a CVS clerk must have told you, $2.5. Of course, given that it's not selling, maybe that clerk is on to something. Does she wanna sell real estate on the side? It would mean a cut in pay,of course, but she would get free tours of our celebrities' homes.

The Professor, Instapundit's Glenn Reynolds, is worried about another Brooks Brother's riot if McCain loses the election:Police prepare for unrest on Election Night

Long on scary headline, short on fact
The NYTs reports that Investors are fleeing hedge funds. It makes sense, and we've discussed this possibility here before, but, perhaps because hedge funds aren't public reporting companies, there's no data on how many investors are fleeing, how much they're taking with them and how many funds won't be around to pass out bonuses next year. Everyone's most cuddly hedge funder, Steven Cohen, is said to be sitting on the sidelines with a large pile of cash, but, speaking only for myself, I'd prefer to sit on a cushion of cash than on the cold, hard ground.

Anyway, the story should ruin some folk's train ride to NYC this morning and will certainly disturb realtors' morning coffee meditations.

(attn. BC: you'll notice that I waited until 5:50 to post this - who says I have no life?)

Woohooo!

Are you growing scared yet?

Al Franken is on his way to the U.S. Senate and this looney is already there. Worse, she's gone off her meds and is screeching about that vast, right-wing conspiracy again. We're doomed.

"Al Franken was taking on the vast right-wing conspiracy before other people even admitted it existed," she told a crowd of 2,000 supporters on the University of Minnesota campus, urging them to give her rival, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate. "Al Franken, with your help, can be our 60th vote."

I don't know what Hillary's doing in this picture - measuring Bill for the guillotine?

Is now a good time to buy a home? This article says, yes, sort of, then backs off. Raises the appropriate issues for you to consider, anyway.

I'm not messing around!

Look sharp on the unemployment line:
The Extreme Banker look is back! (although that's not what the man in tights is wearing - I just thought it an amusing picture from last month's Fashion Walkway) Most pathetic line from a dumb article? The lawyer quoted below has my vote:

Some designers and retailers say formal, double-breasted or three-piece suits and contrast-collared shirts make sense even in an economic slump. These styles, they say, can help men appear serious and competitive at the office and on job interviews. Chicago attorney Francis Kowalik, for one, doesn't think that's far-fetched. A double-breasted suit "has a little more authority to it, a little bit of weight," says the 44-year-old, who owns a number of double-breasted suits and plans to buy more. "It says you're not messing around."

What a yo yo.

From the Wall Street Journal, which home improvements pay off?

Most don't, which I've said here before.

GENERALLY SPEAKING, there are two ways to go about making home improvements. Either you splurge for something purely for the sybaritic pleasure of having it — the Italian marble bathroom you've dreamed about; that skylight that your spouse has been hinting at for the last six years — or you take a pragmatic approach, buying an energy-efficient furnace or repairing a leaky roof because you want to increase your home's market value.

Don't expect to score on both counts. "Just because you pour $20,000 into your home doesn't mean that your house is worth $20,000 more," says Frank Dell'Accio, a real-estate broker in Lindenhurst, N.Y. "I had a guy who invested $100,000 in a $130,000 home after he lived there for four years. He put it on the market at $225,000. He was offered $170,000." His mistake: spending money on amenities that were only peripheral to the value of the house. "He wanted phones in the bathroom," says Dell'Accio, "but [who else is] going to pay for them?"

But there is one important area that you should pay attention to:

Basic Improvements
It may not be all that enjoyable, but it's the basic improvements that may have the greatest return on your home's value. "You could have a beautiful new kitchen, but if your roof is leaking, you have a real problem," says Cory. So if you're thinking of putting your house on the market in the next year or so, be sure to tackle any problems with the home's structure or mechanical systems before you, say, install that hot tub you've always dreamed of.

My advice parallels this article's: fix the important things and add the fun stuff only if you plan to stay in the house long enough to enjoy them. And oh! Pools? Pool sellers will tell you different, but here's another area where the Journal and I agree:

Swimming Pools
It's commonly agreed that a swimming pool has no resale value at all. "I've had clients spend $300,000 and fill in the pool," says one agent. The main reason pools repel more prospective buyers than they attract is that they require expensive upkeep. Running a close second is the fear of liability: Pool accidents are a quick way to end up the subject of a negligence suit. "A lot of people don't want the responsibility," says Cory.

Things aren't going swimmingly in India, either

With just about a week to go until Diwali, the mood is decidedly downbeat. The demon of impending economic doom refuses to die, and as tightened liquidity makes people put off larger purchases, the real estate sector is facing the worst attack. "This time last year, I was selling 10 to 12 properties every day," says Alok Gupta, who runs Advanced Real Estate in the New Delhi suburb of Noida. "This time, I haven't sold a single property all month!"

There goes my idea of opening a branch office in Bombay.

Greenwich Avenue Blues

Courtesy of a reader, here's a story from the New York Observer about Greenwich Lean Time(s). Seems that retailers have seen better days, which will no doubt astonish you. I haven't shopped on the Avenue since Al Oliver's (? - the record store) was pushed out by a Talbot's expansion; Given my tastes and what the Avenue stores sell, I'm sure they never missed my patronage. Still, people who buy $100,000 sapphires at Betteridge's are more likely than I am to buy expensive houses (like yours), so I'm sorry they're feeling pinched.

Cry for me, Argentina:
Government to nationalize all pension savings .
I have friends in Argentina and I'm sorry that, having seemingly weathered the financial chaos down there and about to emerge whole, they are now faced with this. How did the country get into this sorry mess? Here's a hint:

Government spending rose 40 percent to 19.8 billion pesos in August from a year earlier. Tax revenue rose 36 percent to 24.2 billion pesos over the same period. Argentina's borrowing needs will swell to as much as $14 billion next year from $7 billion in 2008, RBC Capital Markets a Toronto-based unit of Canada's largest bank, said yesterday, spurred in part by the need to refinance maturing debt.

My feeling of pity for my friends is mitigated by the dark suspicion that We'll be next. The U.S. will reach the tipping point under Obama's tax proposals next year, and more than 50% of the citizenry will no longer pay income taxes. They will thus have no incentive to restrain spending because the minority will be footing the bill while the majority will receive the benefits. Witness Hartford sucking Greenwich dry, for example.

I remain perplexed by the insane joy of my liberal friends, all purportedly well educated, who greet this man as their savior when he will in fact beggar them. Bertrand Russell said in 1950

When crowds assemble in Trafalgar Square to cheer to the echo an announcement that the government has decided to have them killed, they would not do so if they had all walked twenty-five miles that day.

The old Red would choke on his Nobel to think that his words were used in support of less government, but I do wish my friends would take up strenuous hiking.

As a completely unrelated aside, while hitchhiking across the country one summer I was stopped and my knapsack searched by a Pennsylvania State Trooper. He was looking for drugs but I, being not a complete fool even at 16, had none to show him. He did emerge with my copy of "The Collected Works of Bertrand Russell". Weighing the tome in his hand, he said something like, "this guy was alright so long as he stuck to metaphysics - he went crazy near the end, though, and became a communist. Watch out for him." My participation in this discussion of philosophy was a little distracted because I kept ruminating on the thought that I would never again engage in such an unlikely conversation with a state trooper in my life. Forty years on, I never have.

30 Nearwater Lane

No Comment

This Riverside house, north of the Post Road on Nearwater Lane, is asking $3,195,000 (details can be found here: ML # 69442). With 5,000 sq. ft., a buyer would be paying $639 per foot. I'm not sure how many can take advantage of the disparity, but there are any number of new houses for sale asking around $450 per ft. Of course, these come in units of 15,000, but hey - a bargain's a bargain.

Gloomy Gus?

This guy notes that shipping is slowing to 1931 levels, the economies of most countries suck and, in general, we're staring at a World-wide Depression. Of course, Googling the man, one Ambrose Evans-Pritcher reveals that he thinks the Oklahoma bombing was an FBI sting operation gone bad. On the plus side, when he returned to England (where he is now the Financial Editor for the Telegraph) Clinton sighed with relief and called him a pain in the ass. So he must have something going for himself. Anyway, interesting read. And when the DOW looks like this:

I don't have a secure feeling that he's wrong

154 Cognewaugh

Where the market's heading?

You can make up your own mind, but this new construction was listed for $4,895,000 in June, 2007 and, finding no buyer, slowly dropped to today's price of $3,750,000. It has 7,743 sq.ft. (no way to tell if that includes the basement) so at its original price the builder was looking for $632 per sq.ft. and now he's asking $484. So the price has dropped, by my math, a little less than 25% - you math wizards should feel free to correct me.

Interesting, the builder paid $1.4 million for the land in March, 2006 and put it back on as land in November of that year for $1.75 million. I guess he decided to go forward with the house when he couldn't find anyone willing to take the land off his hands. I wonder if he regrets that decision now or whether he still has enough built into the price to walk away with a profit? At $484 per sq.ft., I wouldn't think there's a huge margin remaining.

A reader has sent along this link to an article advocating a state Constitutional Convention wherein Connecticut could declare partial independence from the federal government and get them off our backs. I like the idea - I'm not so sure our national constitution permits it. Then again, I'm neither a constitutional scholar nor do I play one on TV. But many of the arguments the writer asserts for freeing us from the yoke of federal tyranny also apply to Fairfield County. How about seceding from the rest of Connecticut and letting Hartford find a new source of funding for its largess?

550 Round Hill Rd

A reader asked the status of 551 Round Hill Road. No such listing is in the MLS records but 550 is. Asking $22,500,000 with no takers, so far.

In California, "pain just beginning" for affluent neighborhoods. According to this article, people with more assets have been able to fend off foreclosure, until now. Anecdotal evidence (like an appraiser telling me that her firm's workload here in town is now 50% pre-foreclosure appraisals, up from nearly zero in past years) suggests to me that we're about to witness the same phenomenon here in Greenwich.

Oh, the humanity!

Illegal immigrants can't get mortgages. While I suspect that a hard working illegal would be an excellent credit risk (unless he were caught and deported, of course), surely there ought to be a few sanctions against violating our immigration laws. When I lived in Crete after high school, I believe Greece gave out visas good for 3 months that could, with a trip to Heraklion, be renewed, one month at a time, for an additional three. Working was not permitted and although I broke that rule occasionally by picking vegetables for a local farmer, I never felt that I was being discriminated against on the basis of race, religion or creed - I wasn't a Greek citizen so why should I resent their laws governing how I could visit their country?

I suppose that was the difference - I was visiting, even if I had no idea how long I intended to stay (like my latter-day Mexican counterparts, I hung out far longer than my visa allowed). Today's invasion of the United States is comprised of people who want to stay, work, raise families and obtain mortgages. With the exception of a few random raids on meat-packing plants, only the latter isn't allowed. But the howls of outrage continue to swell and, after the flood (that would be November's election), will only grow louder.

Another interesting day coming up?

European stocks, oil, both fall down.

if it weren't for the fact that low oil prices will retard the development of energy alternatives I'd be 100% delighted at the effect that, say, $45 per barrel would have on our pals in Venezuela and Russia. But we do need substitutes for oil and their development would be a boon if the politicians can be kept out of the process and the free market given free rein. It was politicians, after all, who struggled mightily to address this problem since the mid-1970s and came up with ... ethanol.

What does this story say about mortgage bailouts?

Nothing, that I can see. But it's in The New York Times so it must be important, right? One striking figure: the cost of bailing out everyone who doesn't want to or can't (both classes are being lumped together in federal plans) pay their mortgages: $4 trillion. Now that sum would make even a Democrat sit up and take notice, if only for a moment.

Update: NPR, of all media outlets, just aired an interview with someone from "Inside Mortgage" (I think that's the name) who expressed the heretical view that not everyone should own a home. He pointed out that someone who loses his house to foreclosure and then moves across the street to a rental for half his previous mortgage payment is probably better off. And, he asked, if someone can't keep up with his mortgage, is there any reason to believe he can keep his roof and furnace maintained? As I say, heresey.

Good heavens, now it's racist to describe Obama's economic policies:

"Socialist" code word for "black". Right wing whackos predicted that any opposition to Obama's policies would, were he elected, be denounced as racist. I thought they were being a bit hysterical, once. Now, I see that they were right all along, so I won't be so niggardly in praising their prescience.

Now you do it?!

San Francisco considers decriminalizing prostitution

New Construction on Cat Rock Road
No picture because it just came on today, but a good builder in town has listed 137 Cat Rock Road, 8,141 sq.ft. house for $5.495 million, or $675 sq.ft. But Cat Rock's a difficult sale, for a lot of people. It'll be interesting to watch what happens here.

When they came for my Mercedes I remained silent, because I drove a Bentley. When they came for my spec house .... Mercedes in a full-blown sales crisis.

And if you were one of those lucky ones who were accepted into the Tesla buy-a-car program, it must cause a few sleepless nights wondering where your deposit is, now that the company's laying off 25% of its workforce and looking for money. Nicest touch? They informed their employees they were being fired via a blog. Great.
Oft' promised, never delivered, Tesla sports car ($100,000?)

Update: I stand corrected - retail is $109,000 plus extra for tires, radio and seats.
This article says that the CEO remains upbeat , and that's nice. But I note that he's already sunk $55 million of his $300 million fortune into this deal, is also involved financially with tossing a private-passenger rocket ship into the air and is divorcing his wife, with whom he has five sons, all under six. California's a community property state so there goes 1/2 that $300 million, plus child support for all those kids whose mother will want to maintain a millionaire's lifestyle and, by gosh, I'm not sure I'd start clearing out a space in my garage for my new Tesla's arrival; at least, not quite yet.

Buy 'em all rubber boots
The paper version of Greenwich Time says that a "preliminary estimate" to correct drainage problems in town will cost $100,000,000. I don't know what the preliminary budget for Hamilton Avenue School was, but I'm a bit skeptical that this latest proposal will come in under budget, eh? I don't see how we can afford this. If you disagree, please write in to say so and please include your solution to financing this project.

By the way, there's no link here to the article itself because Greenwich Time chooses to keep it off its website. Brilliant idea, what? Keep important local news off your site but do include national stories that readers can, and do find elsewhere. But all is not lost - wanna know about a family turning its yard into a "fright fest"? That they've got. Splendid.

4 Old Round Hill Lane

This 15,916 sq.ft. stone/clapboard builder's spec. finally sold today (per contract signed Sept. 3) for $10,087,500 or $644 $633 per sq.ft. That's probably not what the builder was hoping for when he first listed this house in May, 2006, for $14,500,000 ($911 sq.ft.) but heck, that was then and this is now. The sales price represents 30% off the asking price, by the way. Is that a bargain? I guess it depends on your budget.

21 Wilshire
Another contract today

Which makes two already this week and it's only Tuesday! Before you get too excited about this event (details of listing can be found at ML# 71300) you may want to know its history:

Originally listed for $3.6 million in June, 2005, it sold 10 months later for $2.98. The buyer placed it back on the market 4 months after that, asking $3.495 - why so much? Who the hell knows? It didn't sell so it's sat on the market since, slowly dying the death of a thousand cuts while its price dropped, ever-so-slowly, to $2.695 million this past June, or $285,000 less than was paid for it (and all with the same broker - what loyalty!). Even that "low" price didn't speed things up much but today it's reported as under contract. What will the selling price prove to be? Inquiring minds want to know. The last listing price was about 10% off its 2006 price, there's another 5% to account for via commissions and, of course, we still don't know the final selling price. Should be interesting.

More blather from the Blathersphere

According to this piece of nonsense, only Turkey and Mexico have higher poverty rates than the United States.

The poorest 10 percent of Americans have an income of $5,800 per year, compared to the OECD average of $7,000.

The press eats this stuff up and never points out that, besides cash, we taxpayers shovel over huge amounts of our money to these unfortunates, like Food Stamps,Earned Income Credits, Welfare, Medicaid,Aid for Dependant Children, job training and Section 8 Housing (and a million more programs, I'm sure)

How needy are these folks? Well,
112,275,000 households in this country have cable television. According to census data, there were 100,480,000 households in 2000. Even accounting for some growth in households, that's just about a cable subscription for every household in America. Now it's possible that a family scraping by on $5,800 per year is willing to fork-over $720 per year ($60 X 12, or 12% of its annual budget) for television, but that leaves only $5,080 for food, housing, clothing and transportation: giving each of those 25% of the remaining money, that's $24 a week ($1,270 / 52) for what, four people? $6 weekly to feed, clothe and house a child ? I don't believe that's the case. It probably is in Turkey - what do I know? But this report, with it's oh-so-precise-sounding statistics, is nothing but filler for national television news. Fortunately, when the Annoited one is elected, all economic news will be presented in glowing, cheerful terms and we won't be bothered with this kind of garbage. So two more weeks.

One parting thought: Transfer payments - money ripped from earners and "redistributed" to non-workers, has increased from $39 billion in 1965 to $1 trillion today, in inflation-adjusted dollars. Now I remember when, as a budding young liberal of 12, LBJ announced the beginning of the War on Poverty; a new day was dawning! Peace (and plenty) in our time! I wish the critics of our efforts in Iraq who are so disappointed in the results generated by spending $1 trillion in current dollars would apply the same standard to Johnson's war. According to this article, it's been a complete bust. I wonder why?

Thanks to a Terrific Reader

See what happens if you're lazy enough? Nice people, perhaps tired of turning their monitor (or their head) sideways do your work for you! Anyway, now you can click on this doc and see what I was trying to pass along yesterday. One caveat, these are year-to-date figures (I think - I didn't turn my own head upside down to study them) so they may not show the market's cliff diving act of the past 6 weeks.

Sell, rent, or stand pat?
A reader asked that question and the best answer I can give is that, if you are under financial pressure to sell, now's as good a time to do it as ever. Traditionally, the weeks between Thanksgiving and New Years (and a few weeks on either side of those holidays) has been dead but last year, December was pretty active and maybe this December will be, too. There are buyers out there - unfortunately for sellers, they're all looking for real bargains so if your house isn't among them, you aren't going to sell. A common experience right now: buyers make one offer, refuse to respond to a seller's counter-offer and instead move on to the second house on their list. There's so much inventory out there that they can afford to toss low-ball offers around and see if one sticks.

The news on rentals is no better. Rents are (way) down, and there are plenty of houses to choose from. So the option of renting out your place and waiting for better times isn't as viable as it once was.

It's sort of like owning stock on margin in 1987. Investors who couldn't meet their margin calls and were forced to sell were wiped out - those who could hold on for a year did okay.

And if that's not gloomy enough for you, it's begun to rain.

Something fishy's going on

A dead goldfish was registered to vote in Illinois

ACORN has been defending itself against (proven) allegations of voter fraud by saying, in essence, "hey, we just submit these registrations, let the Voter Boards screen them out". The mainstream media has by and large accepted this theory but what it overlooks is the true purpose behind the fraud: by submitting million of phony registrations, ACORN has swamped the screeners who are now in an impossible position. If they deny someone the right to vote because they haven't confirmed their registration, Obama and his army of lawyers will be in court that very day, howling in protest. If they just open the doors and let everyone in, then ACORN can get their man elected - the last election was decided by around 100,000 votes, nationwide - ACORN'S efforts dwarf that.

Get ready to pay higher taxes - all of us.

Credit shortage, falling oil prices slow down alternative energy programs

Tinfoil roof

Just as soon as I'm evicted I'm donning my tinfoil hat and going out to vote for the Messiah!
Update: Courtesy of a commentator, we're proud to link to The Tinfoil Hat Song

Sales Statistics

Courtesy of John Cooke. I'm sure there's a way to turn this right side up so if you can't figure it out for yourself I'll get to work on it later.

Kan U reed this?
I won't embarrass the schnook by linking to his blog, but I came across this on the internet, from an article entitled, "How to choose a good real estate agent"

A bad real estate agent would get easily irritated if you rejected the first house they present to you. It would look like they are only interested to get the commissions than giving you more criteria for a house.

Another example of it is that bad real estate agents are the ones who require a fee before they even start to show you the houses. This fee is used to guarantee themselves that the buyer is will only buy a house through them.

Here are examples of good real estate agents:

A good real estate are often patient when you reject a house after the other. This would mean professionalism and can mean that they want you to have the best deal possible.

Another way to determine if you hired a good real estate agent to sell your house is that they make the house look presentable as possible. They do what they can to sell the house as soon as possible and looks everywhere for prospective buyers.

It's pure prejudice, I know, but I'd prefer an agent who can put together subject and verb.

Southern California: House sales up 65% from September 2007. 50% of those sales were foreclosed homes with low, low prices, but it does show that there are buyers out there, at some level.

A total of 20,497 new and existing houses and condominiums sold last month in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. The rise from a year earlier was the biggest in MDA DataQuick's records, which go back to 1988, and September's sales count was the highest since December 2006, the San Diego-based company said today in a statement.

Sales increased the most in areas where rising foreclosures drove down prices, MDA DataQuick said. Half of all the homes sold in Southern California last month had been foreclosed upon in the previous 12 months, up from 13 percent a year earlier.

``The prices are low enough that people who would normally not be able to purchase are buying,'' said Stephanie Martin, owner of Champion Realtors, a San Bernardino-based residential brokerage.

I certainly don't want to see half of Greenwich's homes in foreclosure, but a lower price on many of them wouldn't hurt, if you have to or want to sell now. Want to wait? Then that's what you should do.

In defense of short sellers. My favorite quote?

A UBS research note spoke for the widespread disbelief that modern regulators could ban short selling, even temporarily, even as a form of circuit breaker. "This can be characterized as a populist reaction of no positive value," the report said. "Anyone who seriously thinks that the cause of this crisis arises from the actions of evil and manipulative speculators lacks the insight and knowledge to be allowed anywhere near the regulation of financial markets."

Unfortunately, the monkeys are now in charge of the monkey house.

8 Stillman Lane

13% Price cuts
Both this house and the proposed house next door were cut 13% today. Listing details for #8 can be found here MLS#70852. Cut from $6,650,000 to $5,800,000 and $6,450,000 to $5,600,000, respectively. Readers have asked that I at least identify the good builders in town. Here's one of them. He also has a very large venture on Round Hill Road which hasn't sold. Trouble? I'd guess that he's merely adjusting his prices closer to current market conditions.

Warning! Non real estate News follows! Avert your eyes or risk offense!

A concerned reader who labels himself a "moderate Republican" (heck, anyone can do that; I think I'll label myself a "Democrat for Palin") accuses me of using a single, solitary posted comment from Kos to illustrate my point that the loony left hated Powell just a few short years ago.
Well, here's the Kos report itself, calling the man an Uncle Tom (front page, too!). Then there's this, from some execrable blog, Roots Canal:

ROOTS CANAL: Colin Powell dances for his massah.

I’m sorry, but any shred of dignity or integrity Colin Powell may have had is now long gone. His continuing Stepin’ Fetchit routine on behalf of the Cheney/Rumsfeld administration is outrageous and embarrassing.

How humiliating. Any man in Powell’s position with the slightest shred of pride or self-respect would have resigned a long time ago.

Or from The Physics Forum: "Is Colin Powell a Compulsive Liar?" (I'm tempted to tell you their conclusion but you'll just have to find the answer yourself)
Or this from democratic underground , where Powell is described as "a piece of shit Republican" (and a liar, of course), etc. etc.

Google "Colin Powell liar" and you'll find 233,000+ entries. Try "Condaleeza Rice and Aunt Jamima" and see what you get: Democrat racism, is what. The nutroots on the left cannot abide a black who leaves the plantation (or a plumber, come to that) and they resort to the vilest racism when they find one trying to escape. If that escapee recants, however, and offers to return, all will be forgiven - these are forgiving folks, after all.

20 Cherry Valley Road
Better to be the first born, the second wife and the third broker.

I was the first broker on this property when it was priced at $3,195,000. It's back on the market today for the third time, priced at $2,495,000. A beautiful antique house with great land and completely renovated, the owners have put far more into it than it's now priced at and, now, it's an excellent value.

More real estate news: to be filed under "Environment".
They've known this for years but, like our stupid blue recycling bins, we want everyone to feel that they're doing their part to save the world, even if their efforts are pointless: Cloth nappies pollute more than disposables

Whoa, Nelly!

Anonymous has written again, this time complaining that my blog has veered from its promise of exclusively real estate-related coverage. I am truly sorry, and I repent. Here's a story for him: Greenwich Police to increase patrols at Oil City

Cont(r)act!

Indian Head Road Ml# 70803
I mentioned last week that this was going to be reported, so don't get too excited.

On the other hand, I'm hearing from several agents that they're wrapping up deals at "prices my sellers had said they'd never accept". So (a) don't think that because the market is moribund that you can't sell your house - at the right price and (b) more sellers are getting that message. There is life after an 800 DOW.

9 Boulder Brook

Beechcroft Revisited (on another street)

16 Boulder Brook, 8,339 sq.ft. of new construction on 1.87 acres, sold in November, 2007 for $5,832,000.

39 Boulder Brook, also new construction, 8,000 sq.ft., on 1.46 acres, was listed for $8,595,000 (?!) in April, 2008 and remains unsold at its new price, $4,998,000.

33 Boulder Brook, new construction, 8,000 sq.ft., on 1.7 acres, was listed for $6,875,000 in February, reduced to $6,575,000 and hasn't sold.

9 Boulder Brook, new construction, 8,150 sq.ft., on 1.0 acres, was first listed a few weeks ago at $6,750,000 and was reduced today to $6,450,000. It, too hasn't sold (its builder must have sensed the coming tsunami - it tried selling it as land last October for $3,400,000 but found no takers).

One of these three unsold homes was built by one of the best builders currently building in Greenwich; the others were ... not,in my opinion. But will buyers distinguish between the differing levels of quality? Will the $8,595,000 house's price slashing drag everything on the street down with it? Time will tell but, like that guy on Beechcroft, I'd be nervous.

Not as interesting as first it appears.
The headline promised, Lawrence Taylor's D.U.I. blog exposes fraud in breathalyzer tests, which indeed it does - hardly surprising. But I thought it would be our own L.T., late of Giant's fame, who could certainly supply an experienced view of drug busts and DUIs. Turns out, it's written by a defense attorney, who looks nothing like the Giant. Too bad.

The Mad Mullah


We're not insane, we're Iranians!

Iranians capture "spy pigeons" with "invisible strings". One question: if the strings are invisible, how do they know they're there? Perhaps, like Oakland, there is no "there" there.

"Anonymous" writes,

Your fellow Greenwich residents seem to dispute the return to 2001/2002 prices when I report your considerations.
"My house is certainly 'worth' more than what I bought it for in 2001".
Is this sure knowledge or wishful thinking on his behalf? Should I stick to that formula before I start parting with my money?

The only "sure knowledge" I'm aware of in real estate is what houses sell for. Which is why I've been pointing out sales of houses at 2001 levels. Are these just anecdotal evidence, belied by over-all sales statistics? I report, you decide; but we'll see when the last quarter sales statistics (all 12 of them) are compiled after the close of the year.

Should you stick to a 2001 level when parting with your money? If you really like a particular house, I'd think a bid near its 2005 price wouldn't be crazy - depends on your faith in the ability of Greenwich real estate to rebound, of course, but I doubt many sellers will, as of this writing, voluntarily agree to drop that price an additional 20% and you'll lose the house. Then again, if the current crisis/market kerfuffle continues, sellers may get religion.

From Google News' headlines this morning (in succeeding order)Powell rejects Islamophobia
Powell's endorsement of Obama shows his political transformation
Taliban says they killed aid worker for spreading Christianity

Oh, how times have changed, and thank God for Powell's transformation. Now that he's seen the light and endorsed the Messiah, he's a wise, valued statesman. Twas not always thus: (from The Daily Kos)

Self interest the one and only
things that guides Powell.
Powell has no principles he says
and does what he thinks will
help him and that is all that matters
to him.
He is Republican because Republicans
raised him up to Power and because
Republicans were willing to give
him more since he would a rare black
Republican instead of one of money black democrats.
Even as for those stated political
beliefs he is only saying what
he thinks will gain him favor in the
press. So don't think much of him
because he says something you agree
with, let the political winds
and the media change their tune
and he will too.Powell really is a low-life.
Powell is a true Wormtongue.

Posted by Johnny Davis at January 17, 2003 04:25 AM

Update: Obama: Powell will have role in Administration

Useful Idiots

Sean Penn drops in on his pal, Hugo Chavez, a second time.

Wheelchair access to the YMCA?

Greenwich Time reports today on an athlete who wants to train at the Y but can't get to it - no wheelchair ramp, and none planned until the building is complete (2050?). The Y claims that safety considerations and town building regs won't permit a temporary ramp - the town says that's not so and, in this case, I believe the town.

I'll confess that when the disability act was first passed I, as a small government type, thought it was a bad law and was disappointed that Bush the 1st enacted it. I now think I was wrong, as I am so often, and was ignoring the very real difficulties people like me were thoughtlessly imposing on other people, when simple solutions existed. Okay, some of those solutions aren't so simple, or inexpensive, but most are. I do wish some of the more ridiculous extensions of the law were quashed - there was a lawsuit going on recently and for all I know is still dragging on, demanding full wheelchair access to the New Hampshire mountain trail system - but, having become friends with a couple of wheelchair athletes and experienced family members' difficulties finding a parking space close to shops (which spaces seem always to be occupied by SUVs - go figure), I'm inclined to think that, where there's a reasonable means to accommodate those who can't walk with ease, we should do it.

And I think the YMCA should do it.

The 10 Worst Real Estate Deals in History?

This author thinks so but I notice that he didn't include the story of my own ancestors, French Huguenots who landed with the Dutch at the tip of Manhattan in 1630 or so 1658 and promptly turned their back on that island and moved on to Staten Island Brooklyn. We've been blowing real estate deals ever since.

Dodd refuses to release Countrywide loan documents.

Why? Because he's a crook, he traded his office for sweetheart loan deals, and he couldn't chair his great investigative committee looking into bank fraud if he were indicted, now could he? His father's disgrace wasn't enough - the current Dodd is determined to outdo him.

Bad Gas!

My friend Claudette at Greenwich Diva reports on a scam being perpetrated at the Shell station at 83 East Putnam Avenue(across from Whole Foods). These guys "accidentally" lock their customers' keys in the car, then demand $50 for a "friend" (I'd call him a co-conspirator or accomplice) to unlock it. If this happens to you, call the police - apparently they're on to these guys.

Great minds think alike
Fromthe Instapundit himself, Professor Glenn Reynolds:

KNOXVILLE'S BOOMING DOWNTOWN REAL ESTATE MARKET IS SLOWING, and the problem seems to be a mixture of financing and difficulty selling homes in the 'burbs. Looking around the neighborhoods, my sense is that a lot of people remain unrealistic in their pricing, thinking that by expecting "only" four percent appreciation over the past few years they're pricing low. In fact, the Knoxville market has never really appreciated faster than that. If I were selling my house, I'd probably price it at 2005 levels or even below. And I notice that people who do cut the price seem to sell a lot faster.

LIDAR comes to Greenwich. Whatever - if the cops want a new toy to trap speeders, fine: lots of speeders where I live and I wouldn't mind seeing them slowed down. What bothers me about this is the mention in the OurGreenwich.com posting about the equipment is that they were paid for by a "grant". There's no explanation given as to what that grant is (nor is there an explanation of LIDAR, which is why I provided a separate link for readers, above - click on "LIDAR") but who's giving grants these days except Homeland Security? If that's where the money came from (and it may not have - the state police dole out confiscated drug bust assets to local police) then it confirms what is already obvious: the Homeland Security program is just another governmental farce, a general give-away of taxpayers' money to every town with a loud voice, all in the name of the war on terrorism. You tell me what issuing speeding tickets to local residents has to do with Muslim bombers and I'll change my opinion.

Update: Greenwich has, since 2001, received $8,507,000 in Homeland Security grants all of which seemed to originate from HUD and were spent as community development block grants. What's all this mean? I don't know. As Drudge says, "developing".

More updating: some sort of speeders rights page says that our cops are using this Lidar from the silver "DUI" Tahoe posted onWest Putnam Avenue. I've seen that car all around town at all hours and wondered what the cops were doing looking for drunks at, say, 10:00 AM - I'm sure drunks can drive at any time of day but I'd assume most of them were sleeping it off at 10. Now I know. But what makes the site amusing is that apparently it's read by our local patrolmen and they post comments - one denies that he's using Lidar, another says there are two vehicles at that location and only one is the Tahoe. Go at it, boys.

Selling advice from Las Cruces, New Mexico. I like Las Cruces, even if my ancestor, Col. Albert Fountain was murdered out there, along with his 9-year-old son, Henry, back in 1896 (by Oliver Lee - the families still dislike each other). Here are some smart selling tips from a local realtor out there. Sounds like Las Cruces isn't experiencing the same hurricane we are but then, it's a long way from Wall Street.

For years, Arthur, " Little Pinch" Sulzberger, unworthy heir to the family heirloom, The New York Times, has strived to turn that paper into a highly partisan rag with dubious ethics and, many of us think, treasonous purposes. He has pretty much succeeded and his reward has been
declining circulation
and a declining stock price

In this time of trouble, when so many are losing their jobs, it's probably too late to offer career advice, but if you must run a business into the ground, it is best to do so at a family owned company. You won't see a foreclosure sign in front of Pinch's manse.

Something in the water out in Ohio?

Real estate death spiral? No way, "Everything is beautiful"according to this Ohioan. I wouldn't dare contradict the CEO of a real estate firm, nor question his motives, but I will congratulate him on escaping what the rest of the country is experiencing.

(note: wrong link before - sorry)

Should you pay to have your HVAC duct work cleaned?
Maybe yes, maybe no, according to this article.

October Contracts
On Thursday I gave the statistics for single family houses going to contract through October 16 and compared them to last year: down 65%, 6 vs 17. A reader asked how many houses sold for all of October, 2007 and the answer is, 33 (I use contracts, because solds are a lagging indicator).

As of Friday, when we added one house for the week, we've seen 7 houses go to contract this month, vs 18 last year through the 18th. I know of one contract that will be reported Monday so we can safely assume that we'll have at least 9 for the month and, if we keep at our torrid pace of one contract per week, we'll see a total of 10. That would yield a 70% decline in sales, year-to-year. If I were Doug Fainelli, I'd start campaigning for that open Superintendent's position.

Scarcer then hen's teeth Himes a millionaire, Shays is not. In fact, according to the Greenwich Citizen, Congressman Shays has about $32,000 in savings. I point this out not to knock Mr. Himes - he worked for Goldman Sachs and earned, or at least, received, his fortune from private individuals. But I am impressed that our Congressman has spent as much time as he has in Washington and did not find it an enriching experience. It seems to me that most pols who go to our capital emerge far wealthier than when they came in and that's rather surprising when one considers the rather modest salary they're paid. Color me skeptical, if you must, but I've always attributed that phenomenon to cash paid for services rendered.

I once served on the governing body of a local club, where it was announced, with great fanfare, that we would pay our new manager 2X as much as his predecessor because then he, unlike that former employee, wouldn't steal from us. I suggested that we hire an honest man to begin with but I was ignored (they ignored me a lot on that board - could it have had anything to do with my assertive/obnoxious personality?)and, lo and behold, the new manager not only proved a crook, he improved on his predecessor's system of siphoning off funds.

So I'm hugely impressed that Shays, agree with his politics or not, hasn't spent his years with his snout buried in the public trough. Send a multi-millionaire to Congress in the hope that his wealth will shield him from temptation? It certainly hasn't worked in the past - look at Joe Biden, who's shoveled more than $2,000,000 recently to family members - and I don't think it will work in the future. Mr. Himes may indeed be honest - we know that Mr. Shays is.

The Headline reads, Officials to look locally for Superintendent but the text doesn't support that claim, at least when it comes to officials who run the School Board. Apparently no School Board members would speak to the Greenwich Time Reporter so we learn only that Peter Tessei (First Selectman) Frank Farricker (P&Z) and Ed Krumeich (BET) think it's a good idea. None of these men has any control over the School Board so the latter's silence is ominous. The Board has a splendid record of scouring the country to find and hire the least competent candidate available and its members may well have a strong determination to continue that practice. Demonstrated incompetence sometimes feels threatened by ability.

If some miracle occurs and the Board does look locally (and not, as in the past, merely to pay lip service to its critics) I like the idea of one name floating around, Doug Fainelli. Doug was a great principal at Old Greenwich School (and before that, Vice-Principal at Riverside, where I first met him) and was so well liked that he was shifted to Dundee when that school opened to console those Old Greenwich parents who were upset at seeing their kids transferred. It worked, too - as soon as his appointment was announced, opposition ceased.

He went on to do a great job at Dundee before retiring and entered the real estate business, where he's done very well. I understand that that particular business has slowed down a bit these days so perhaps the man can be persuaded to un-retire. If not then heck, Doug, you can have my office and I'll try it out - I do know where all the schools are, which gives me a leg up on our past Superintendents.

WSJ: 5 Hints that your job's on the way out the door
The article offers some pretty unsurprising tips - I can think of some more.
1. Your boss replaces the fixed widows in his office with openable ones.
2. China coffee cups disappear and are replaced by styrofoam.
3. Coffee disappears.
4. Contractors start measuring to build a new trading floor, 1/4 the size of your current one, and your desk straddles the line.
5. Conversation stops when you walk into the executive kitchen.
6. Pallets of knocked-down cardboard boxes are stacked on the loading dock.
7. Did I mention the openable windows?

Chrysler - GM Merger: Does it Make Sense?

Who cares? the Banks love it.. The snippet of the article available without subscribing to the WSJ doesn't mention it, but I'd guess that potential bank fees are a driving force in this merger. I am told, but can't confirm, that Lehman Brothers dumped $200 million into the Antares Byram condo fiasco (the next best bid was $100 million) despite being warned by a young staffer that the numbers simply didn't add up. What the kid didn't understand, naive waif that he was, was that the Lehman division running the deal stood to "earn" $14 million for itself by syndicating the loan. The young kid was probably fired long ago, when his prescience must have proved embarrassing - his superiors have now joined him on the street, so there is some justice after all.

But if that's how dumb real estate deals got hatched: banker greed, then I suspect that this car maker merger, which makes no sense to many observers (except Chrysler and GM, who are desperate just to survive another day), is inspired by the same motive.

Why won't my house sell?

According to the Wall Street Journal, foreclosure auctions aren't clearing out much inventory.
Why?

Many investors, who make up the bulk of active bidders at auctions, say the banks are asking too much for the homes.

I wonder if these banks are all owned by Greenwich residents?

Tale from a Player

How former HUD Secretary (under Clinton, if you're keeping score) Henry Cisneros encouraged poor people to buy housing they couldn't afford. But his intentions were good!

The causes of the housing implosion are many: lax regulation, financial innovation gone awry, excessive debt, raw greed. The players are also varied: bankers, borrowers, developers, politicians and bureaucrats.

Mr. Cisneros, 61, had a foot in a number of those worlds. Despite his qualms, he encouraged the unprepared to buy homes — part of a broad national trend with dire economic consequences.

He reflects often on his role in the debacle, he says, which has changed homeownership from something that secured a place in the middle class to something that is ejecting people from it. “I’ve been waiting for someone to put all the blame at my doorstep,” he says lightly, but with a bit of worry, too.

Victor Ramirez and Lorraine Pulido-Ramirez bought a house in Lago Vista in 2002. “This was our first home. I had nothing to compare it to,” Mr. Ramirez says. “I was a student making $17,000 a year, my wife was between jobs. In retrospect, how in hell did we qualify?”
The majority of buyers in Lago Vista “were duped into believing it was easier than it was,” Mr. Ramirez says. “The attitude was, ‘Sign here, sign here, don’t read the fine print.’ ” He added that some fault lay with buyers: “We were definitely willing victims.” (The Ramirez family veered close to foreclosure, but the couple now have good jobs and can make their payments.)

Plenty of blame to go around, I'd say.

Some Greenwich house-sellers have company down under.

And many more would, if they were willing to accept reality. Sell Sell Sell - Aussie millionaires cut losses on their mansions

New research by analysts Australian Property Monitors shows real estate agents slashing millions from their initial asking prices for homes in some upmarket areas after only a few weeks or months.

RP Data analyst Tim Lawless said affected areas include the northern beaches suburbs such as Manly, Warringah and Pittwater.

"House values there have fallen by 10 per cent and the median is now around $900,000, down from just over $1 million in July last year," he said.

Craig Pontey, from Ray White Double Bay, said houses selling for $3 million to $8 million "have come off their highs by 5 to 8 per cent" since the post-2000 boom time. Property analyst Louis Christopher from SQM Research said: "I have met a number of these people who have been utterly wiped out by the sharemarket correction and are looking to offload their property."

Brian Redican, a senior economist with Macquarie Bank, said that until recently the lower half of the top-end market had been shielded from the falling property value trend.

"But the shakeout of the sharemarket has shown signs of forced selling and it's probably true we have seen falls in house prices in that end of the market, but they are relatively small falls," he said.

Liam O'Hara, a senior economist with Australian Property Monitors, said that while well-off areas were starting to feel the pain, the real falls in property values were in the western suburbs.

And high-end real estate agent Billy Bridges - who deals in properties worth tens of millions of dollars - said the very top of the market was still faring well.

"Our market's incredible. I've got 20 buyers with well over $20 million looking for waterfront. The top of the market is on fire. Hopefully those poor bastards in Bankstown will get some reprieve soon," he said.

I think I'll keep my eye on this Billy Bridges - I get the impression he'd sell one of his listings to his own mother, given the chance. Or find work with Antares.

It's not just Wall Street

Zillow cutting 25% of its workforce

This was an incredibly painful decision for me and the leadership team, but, in the end, we concluded that we had no choice but to securely batten down the hatches as we sail into a major economic storm. Despite having sizeable cash reserves, we deemed the responsible course was to meaningfully reduce expenses, so that Zillow emerges from the other side of the recession in a very strong position, even if the recession lasts many years.

[emphasis added, just in case your eyes had glazed over]

And they say real estate agents are Pollyanna's!

Bloomberg: Dow sees biggest gain this week since 2003 I suppose that may be true - if you start low enough, even a dead cat bounce will lift things a bit. But the past month's been a little ... discouraging.

Waving Goodbye

Thanks to a reader, here's a link to a humorous article: Hedge Funder calls it quits (that's not the burned - out hedge funder pictured above, by the way, it's Gaylord Nelson founder of Earth Day, old hippy and U.S. Senator; I just thought that in light of the hedge-funder's parting endorsement of the merits of dope, the two of them belong together). The Californian made a lot of money for a lot of people, including himself, and according to his farewell letter to investors, no longer wants to play the game:

"Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America."

Nothing to add to that, I suppose.

Unrelated Update: According to Blogger.com, which hosts this blog, this is my 1,000 posting - I passed the 50,000 visitors mark earlier this week. I don't know what good that knowledge will do, but it gives me a chance to go enjoy a celebratory cup of coffee - back later.

Demon Seed?
One of my guilty pleasures, I'm shamed to admit, is reading the local police blotter (a vice shared by too many people, alas - police blotters and obituaries are, I've read, the two most popular features of all local papers). Those pages have allowed me to follow the criminal career of one local family now since 1970, when the now-grandfather, then a local punk volunteer fireman, burned down a garage on my street, was arrested and charged with a series of arsons, including the destruction of the Riverside train station. Over the years, I'd see that he'd been caught for one transgression or another and went into and out of jail. He must have put his post-incarceration spells to good use because, after awhile I began noticing that other, much younger people with the same last name and still living in the area of their father were also running afoul of the law: breaking into the Howard Johnson's, drug busts, domestic violence calls, the usual stuff that what some call "the misfortunate" and I call the criminal class get into. In today's paper, a third generation appears.

My question is, why? There's another branch of this same family that is quite respectable, runs a successful business and has done so for at least four generations. What's up with this bunch? No answers here, I just find the phenomenon interesting. I know that alcoholism can run in families and certainly a lot of these reported crimes seem to have been fueled by that or other drugs (or, in the case of car break-ins, the need for drugs). But did some of the children escape? I can't tell, of course, because if they did they wouldn't appear in the police blotter. The one thing I'm pretty sure of is that it is not a case, as so many of my former clients claimed, of the police picking on them. I sometimes stir up our local force with some acerbic posts and, in the past, columns yet I've never been arrested or even accused of burglary, drunk driving or petty theft, no doubt because I don't engage in those activities. Most people don't - this family does. Why?