Monday, October 20, 2008

8 Stillman Lane

13% Price cuts
Both this house and the proposed house next door were cut 13% today. Listing details for #8 can be found here MLS#70852. Cut from $6,650,000 to $5,800,000 and $6,450,000 to $5,600,000, respectively. Readers have asked that I at least identify the good builders in town. Here's one of them. He also has a very large venture on Round Hill Road which hasn't sold. Trouble? I'd guess that he's merely adjusting his prices closer to current market conditions.
Warning! Non real estate News follows! Avert your eyes or risk offense!

A concerned reader who labels himself a "moderate Republican" (heck, anyone can do that; I think I'll label myself a "Democrat for Palin") accuses me of using a single, solitary posted comment from Kos to illustrate my point that the loony left hated Powell just a few short years ago.
Well, here's the Kos report itself, calling the man an Uncle Tom (front page, too!). Then there's this, from some execrable blog, Roots Canal:
ROOTS CANAL: Colin Powell dances for his massah.

I’m sorry, but any shred of dignity or integrity Colin Powell may have had is now long gone. His continuing Stepin’ Fetchit routine on behalf of the Cheney/Rumsfeld administration is outrageous and embarrassing.

How humiliating. Any man in Powell’s position with the slightest shred of pride or self-respect would have resigned a long time ago.

Or from The Physics Forum: "Is Colin Powell a Compulsive Liar?" (I'm tempted to tell you their conclusion but you'll just have to find the answer yourself)
Or this from democratic underground , where Powell is described as "a piece of shit Republican" (and a liar, of course), etc. etc.

Google "Colin Powell liar" and you'll find 233,000+ entries. Try "Condaleeza Rice and Aunt Jamima" and see what you get: Democrat racism, is what. The nutroots on the left cannot abide a black who leaves the plantation (or a plumber, come to that) and they resort to the vilest racism when they find one trying to escape. If that escapee recants, however, and offers to return, all will be forgiven - these are forgiving folks, after all.
20 Cherry Valley Road
Better to be the first born, the second wife and the third broker.

I was the first broker on this property when it was priced at $3,195,000. It's back on the market today for the third time, priced at $2,495,000. A beautiful antique house with great land and completely renovated, the owners have put far more into it than it's now priced at and, now, it's an excellent value.

More real estate news: to be filed under "Environment".
They've known this for years but, like our stupid blue recycling bins, we want everyone to feel that they're doing their part to save the world, even if their efforts are pointless: Cloth nappies pollute more than disposables
Whoa, Nelly!

Anonymous has written again, this time complaining that my blog has veered from its promise of exclusively real estate-related coverage. I am truly sorry, and I repent. Here's a story for him: Greenwich Police to increase patrols at Oil City
Cont(r)act!

Indian Head Road Ml# 70803
I mentioned last week that this was going to be reported, so don't get too excited.

On the other hand, I'm hearing from several agents that they're wrapping up deals at "prices my sellers had said they'd never accept". So (a) don't think that because the market is moribund that you can't sell your house - at the right price and (b) more sellers are getting that message. There is life after an 800 DOW.
9 Boulder Brook

Beechcroft Revisited (on another street)

16 Boulder Brook, 8,339 sq.ft. of new construction on 1.87 acres, sold in November, 2007 for $5,832,000.

39 Boulder Brook
, also new construction, 8,000 sq.ft., on 1.46 acres, was listed for $8,595,000 (?!) in April, 2008 and remains unsold at its new price, $4,998,000.

33 Boulder Brook, new construction, 8,000 sq.ft., on 1.7 acres, was listed for $6,875,000 in February, reduced to $6,575,000 and hasn't sold.

9 Boulder Brook, new construction, 8,150 sq.ft., on 1.0 acres, was first listed a few weeks ago at $6,750,000 and was reduced today to $6,450,000. It, too hasn't sold (its builder must have sensed the coming tsunami - it tried selling it as land last October for $3,400,000 but found no takers).

One of these three unsold homes was built by one of the best builders currently building in Greenwich; the others were ... not,in my opinion. But will buyers distinguish between the differing levels of quality? Will the $8,595,000 house's price slashing drag everything on the street down with it? Time will tell but, like that guy on Beechcroft, I'd be nervous.
Not as interesting as first it appears.
The headline promised, Lawrence Taylor's D.U.I. blog exposes fraud in breathalyzer tests, which indeed it does - hardly surprising. But I thought it would be our own L.T., late of Giant's fame, who could certainly supply an experienced view of drug busts and DUIs. Turns out, it's written by a defense attorney, who looks nothing like the Giant. Too bad.
The Mad Mullah


We're not insane, we're Iranians!

Iranians capture "spy pigeons" with "invisible strings". One question: if the strings are invisible, how do they know they're there? Perhaps, like Oakland, there is no "there" there.
"Anonymous" writes,
Your fellow Greenwich residents seem to dispute the return to 2001/2002 prices when I report your considerations.
"My house is certainly 'worth' more than what I bought it for in 2001".
Is this sure knowledge or wishful thinking on his behalf? Should I stick to that formula before I start parting with my money?
The only "sure knowledge" I'm aware of in real estate is what houses sell for. Which is why I've been pointing out sales of houses at 2001 levels. Are these just anecdotal evidence, belied by over-all sales statistics? I report, you decide; but we'll see when the last quarter sales statistics (all 12 of them) are compiled after the close of the year.

Should you stick to a 2001 level when parting with your money? If you really like a particular house, I'd think a bid near its 2005 price wouldn't be crazy - depends on your faith in the ability of Greenwich real estate to rebound, of course, but I doubt many sellers will, as of this writing, voluntarily agree to drop that price an additional 20% and you'll lose the house. Then again, if the current crisis/market kerfuffle continues, sellers may get religion.
From Google News' headlines this morning (in succeeding order)Powell rejects Islamophobia
Powell's endorsement of Obama shows his political transformation
Taliban says they killed aid worker for spreading Christianity

Oh, how times have changed, and thank God for Powell's transformation. Now that he's seen the light and endorsed the Messiah, he's a wise, valued statesman. Twas not always thus: (from The Daily Kos)
Self interest the one and only
things that guides Powell.
Powell has no principles he says
and does what he thinks will
help him and that is all that matters
to him.
He is Republican because Republicans
raised him up to Power and because
Republicans were willing to give
him more since he would a rare black
Republican instead of one of money black democrats.
Even as for those stated political
beliefs he is only saying what
he thinks will gain him favor in the
press. So don't think much of him
because he says something you agree
with, let the political winds
and the media change their tune
and he will too.
Powell really is a low-life.
Powell is a true Wormtongue.

Posted by Johnny Davis at January 17, 2003 04:25 AM

Update: Obama: Powell will have role in Administration

Useful Idiots

Sean Penn drops in on his pal, Hugo Chavez, a second time.

Wheelchair access to the YMCA?

Greenwich Time reports today on an athlete who wants to train at the Y but can't get to it - no wheelchair ramp, and none planned until the building is complete (2050?). The Y claims that safety considerations and town building regs won't permit a temporary ramp - the town says that's not so and, in this case, I believe the town.

I'll confess that when the disability act was first passed I, as a small government type, thought it was a bad law and was disappointed that Bush the 1st enacted it. I now think I was wrong, as I am so often, and was ignoring the very real difficulties people like me were thoughtlessly imposing on other people, when simple solutions existed. Okay, some of those solutions aren't so simple, or inexpensive, but most are. I do wish some of the more ridiculous extensions of the law were quashed - there was a lawsuit going on recently and for all I know is still dragging on, demanding full wheelchair access to the New Hampshire mountain trail system - but, having become friends with a couple of wheelchair athletes and experienced family members' difficulties finding a parking space close to shops (which spaces seem always to be occupied by SUVs - go figure), I'm inclined to think that, where there's a reasonable means to accommodate those who can't walk with ease, we should do it.

And I think the YMCA should do it.
The 10 Worst Real Estate Deals in History?

This author thinks so but I notice that he didn't include the story of my own ancestors, French Huguenots who landed with the Dutch at the tip of Manhattan in 1630 or so 1658 and promptly turned their back on that island and moved on to Staten Island Brooklyn. We've been blowing real estate deals ever since.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Dodd refuses to release Countrywide loan documents.

Why? Because he's a crook, he traded his office for sweetheart loan deals, and he couldn't chair his great investigative committee looking into bank fraud if he were indicted, now could he? His father's disgrace wasn't enough - the current Dodd is determined to outdo him.
Bad Gas!

My friend Claudette at Greenwich Diva reports on a scam being perpetrated at the Shell station at 83 East Putnam Avenue(across from Whole Foods). These guys "accidentally" lock their customers' keys in the car, then demand $50 for a "friend" (I'd call him a co-conspirator or accomplice) to unlock it. If this happens to you, call the police - apparently they're on to these guys.
Great minds think alike
Fromthe Instapundit himself, Professor Glenn Reynolds:
KNOXVILLE'S BOOMING DOWNTOWN REAL ESTATE MARKET IS SLOWING, and the problem seems to be a mixture of financing and difficulty selling homes in the 'burbs. Looking around the neighborhoods, my sense is that a lot of people remain unrealistic in their pricing, thinking that by expecting "only" four percent appreciation over the past few years they're pricing low. In fact, the Knoxville market has never really appreciated faster than that. If I were selling my house, I'd probably price it at 2005 levels or even below. And I notice that people who do cut the price seem to sell a lot faster.
LIDAR comes to Greenwich. Whatever - if the cops want a new toy to trap speeders, fine: lots of speeders where I live and I wouldn't mind seeing them slowed down. What bothers me about this is the mention in the OurGreenwich.com posting about the equipment is that they were paid for by a "grant". There's no explanation given as to what that grant is (nor is there an explanation of LIDAR, which is why I provided a separate link for readers, above - click on "LIDAR") but who's giving grants these days except Homeland Security? If that's where the money came from (and it may not have - the state police dole out confiscated drug bust assets to local police) then it confirms what is already obvious: the Homeland Security program is just another governmental farce, a general give-away of taxpayers' money to every town with a loud voice, all in the name of the war on terrorism. You tell me what issuing speeding tickets to local residents has to do with Muslim bombers and I'll change my opinion.

Update: Greenwich has, since 2001, received $8,507,000 in Homeland Security grants all of which seemed to originate from HUD and were spent as community development block grants. What's all this mean? I don't know. As Drudge says, "developing".

More updating: some sort of speeders rights page says that our cops are using this Lidar from the silver "DUI" Tahoe posted onWest Putnam Avenue. I've seen that car all around town at all hours and wondered what the cops were doing looking for drunks at, say, 10:00 AM - I'm sure drunks can drive at any time of day but I'd assume most of them were sleeping it off at 10. Now I know. But what makes the site amusing is that apparently it's read by our local patrolmen and they post comments - one denies that he's using Lidar, another says there are two vehicles at that location and only one is the Tahoe. Go at it, boys.
Selling advice from Las Cruces, New Mexico. I like Las Cruces, even if my ancestor, Col. Albert Fountain was murdered out there, along with his 9-year-old son, Henry, back in 1896 (by Oliver Lee - the families still dislike each other). Here are some smart selling tips from a local realtor out there. Sounds like Las Cruces isn't experiencing the same hurricane we are but then, it's a long way from Wall Street.
For years, Arthur, " Little Pinch" Sulzberger, unworthy heir to the family heirloom, The New York Times, has strived to turn that paper into a highly partisan rag with dubious ethics and, many of us think, treasonous purposes. He has pretty much succeeded and his reward has been
declining circulation
and a declining stock price

In this time of trouble, when so many are losing their jobs, it's probably too late to offer career advice, but if you must run a business into the ground, it is best to do so at a family owned company. You won't see a foreclosure sign in front of Pinch's manse.
Something in the water out in Ohio?

Real estate death spiral? No way, "Everything is beautiful"according to this Ohioan. I wouldn't dare contradict the CEO of a real estate firm, nor question his motives, but I will congratulate him on escaping what the rest of the country is experiencing.

(note: wrong link before - sorry)
Should you pay to have your HVAC duct work cleaned?
Maybe yes, maybe no, according to this article.
October Contracts
On Thursday I gave the statistics for single family houses going to contract through October 16 and compared them to last year: down 65%, 6 vs 17. A reader asked how many houses sold for all of October, 2007 and the answer is, 33 (I use contracts, because solds are a lagging indicator).

As of Friday, when we added one house for the week, we've seen 7 houses go to contract this month, vs 18 last year through the 18th. I know of one contract that will be reported Monday so we can safely assume that we'll have at least 9 for the month and, if we keep at our torrid pace of one contract per week, we'll see a total of 10. That would yield a 70% decline in sales, year-to-year. If I were Doug Fainelli, I'd start campaigning for that open Superintendent's position.
Scarcer then hen's teeth Himes a millionaire, Shays is not. In fact, according to the Greenwich Citizen, Congressman Shays has about $32,000 in savings. I point this out not to knock Mr. Himes - he worked for Goldman Sachs and earned, or at least, received, his fortune from private individuals. But I am impressed that our Congressman has spent as much time as he has in Washington and did not find it an enriching experience. It seems to me that most pols who go to our capital emerge far wealthier than when they came in and that's rather surprising when one considers the rather modest salary they're paid. Color me skeptical, if you must, but I've always attributed that phenomenon to cash paid for services rendered.

I once served on the governing body of a local club, where it was announced, with great fanfare, that we would pay our new manager 2X as much as his predecessor because then he, unlike that former employee, wouldn't steal from us. I suggested that we hire an honest man to begin with but I was ignored (they ignored me a lot on that board - could it have had anything to do with my assertive/obnoxious personality?)and, lo and behold, the new manager not only proved a crook, he improved on his predecessor's system of siphoning off funds.

So I'm hugely impressed that Shays, agree with his politics or not, hasn't spent his years with his snout buried in the public trough. Send a multi-millionaire to Congress in the hope that his wealth will shield him from temptation? It certainly hasn't worked in the past - look at Joe Biden, who's shoveled more than $2,000,000 recently to family members - and I don't think it will work in the future. Mr. Himes may indeed be honest - we know that Mr. Shays is.
The Headline reads, Officials to look locally for Superintendent but the text doesn't support that claim, at least when it comes to officials who run the School Board. Apparently no School Board members would speak to the Greenwich Time Reporter so we learn only that Peter Tessei (First Selectman) Frank Farricker (P&Z) and Ed Krumeich (BET) think it's a good idea. None of these men has any control over the School Board so the latter's silence is ominous. The Board has a splendid record of scouring the country to find and hire the least competent candidate available and its members may well have a strong determination to continue that practice. Demonstrated incompetence sometimes feels threatened by ability.

If some miracle occurs and the Board does look locally (and not, as in the past, merely to pay lip service to its critics) I like the idea of one name floating around, Doug Fainelli. Doug was a great principal at Old Greenwich School (and before that, Vice-Principal at Riverside, where I first met him) and was so well liked that he was shifted to Dundee when that school opened to console those Old Greenwich parents who were upset at seeing their kids transferred. It worked, too - as soon as his appointment was announced, opposition ceased.

He went on to do a great job at Dundee before retiring and entered the real estate business, where he's done very well. I understand that that particular business has slowed down a bit these days so perhaps the man can be persuaded to un-retire. If not then heck, Doug, you can have my office and I'll try it out - I do know where all the schools are, which gives me a leg up on our past Superintendents.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

WSJ: 5 Hints that your job's on the way out the door
The article offers some pretty unsurprising tips - I can think of some more.
1. Your boss replaces the fixed widows in his office with openable ones.
2. China coffee cups disappear and are replaced by styrofoam.
3. Coffee disappears.
4. Contractors start measuring to build a new trading floor, 1/4 the size of your current one, and your desk straddles the line.
5. Conversation stops when you walk into the executive kitchen.
6. Pallets of knocked-down cardboard boxes are stacked on the loading dock.
7. Did I mention the openable windows?

Chrysler - GM Merger: Does it Make Sense?

Who cares? the Banks love it.. The snippet of the article available without subscribing to the WSJ doesn't mention it, but I'd guess that potential bank fees are a driving force in this merger. I am told, but can't confirm, that Lehman Brothers dumped $200 million into the Antares Byram condo fiasco (the next best bid was $100 million) despite being warned by a young staffer that the numbers simply didn't add up. What the kid didn't understand, naive waif that he was, was that the Lehman division running the deal stood to "earn" $14 million for itself by syndicating the loan. The young kid was probably fired long ago, when his prescience must have proved embarrassing - his superiors have now joined him on the street, so there is some justice after all.

But if that's how dumb real estate deals got hatched: banker greed, then I suspect that this car maker merger, which makes no sense to many observers (except Chrysler and GM, who are desperate just to survive another day), is inspired by the same motive.
Why won't my house sell?

According to the Wall Street Journal, foreclosure auctions aren't clearing out much inventory.
Why?
Many investors, who make up the bulk of active bidders at auctions, say the banks are asking too much for the homes.
I wonder if these banks are all owned by Greenwich residents?
Tale from a Player

How former HUD Secretary (under Clinton, if you're keeping score) Henry Cisneros encouraged poor people to buy housing they couldn't afford. But his intentions were good!
The causes of the housing implosion are many: lax regulation, financial innovation gone awry, excessive debt, raw greed. The players are also varied: bankers, borrowers, developers, politicians and bureaucrats.

Mr. Cisneros, 61, had a foot in a number of those worlds. Despite his qualms, he encouraged the unprepared to buy homes — part of a broad national trend with dire economic consequences.

He reflects often on his role in the debacle, he says, which has changed homeownership from something that secured a place in the middle class to something that is ejecting people from it. “I’ve been waiting for someone to put all the blame at my doorstep,” he says lightly, but with a bit of worry, too.
Victor Ramirez and Lorraine Pulido-Ramirez bought a house in Lago Vista in 2002. “This was our first home. I had nothing to compare it to,” Mr. Ramirez says. “I was a student making $17,000 a year, my wife was between jobs. In retrospect, how in hell did we qualify?”
The majority of buyers in Lago Vista “were duped into believing it was easier than it was,” Mr. Ramirez says. “The attitude was, ‘Sign here, sign here, don’t read the fine print.’ ” He added that some fault lay with buyers: “We were definitely willing victims.” (The Ramirez family veered close to foreclosure, but the couple now have good jobs and can make their payments.)
Plenty of blame to go around, I'd say.
Some Greenwich house-sellers have company down under.

And many more would, if they were willing to accept reality. Sell Sell Sell - Aussie millionaires cut losses on their mansions
New research by analysts Australian Property Monitors shows real estate agents slashing millions from their initial asking prices for homes in some upmarket areas after only a few weeks or months.

RP Data analyst Tim Lawless said affected areas include the northern beaches suburbs such as Manly, Warringah and Pittwater.

"House values there have fallen by 10 per cent and the median is now around $900,000, down from just over $1 million in July last year," he said.

Craig Pontey, from Ray White Double Bay, said houses selling for $3 million to $8 million "have come off their highs by 5 to 8 per cent" since the post-2000 boom time. Property analyst Louis Christopher from SQM Research said: "I have met a number of these people who have been utterly wiped out by the sharemarket correction and are looking to offload their property."

Brian Redican, a senior economist with Macquarie Bank, said that until recently the lower half of the top-end market had been shielded from the falling property value trend.

"But the shakeout of the sharemarket has shown signs of forced selling and it's probably true we have seen falls in house prices in that end of the market, but they are relatively small falls," he said.

Liam O'Hara, a senior economist with Australian Property Monitors, said that while well-off areas were starting to feel the pain, the real falls in property values were in the western suburbs.

And high-end real estate agent Billy Bridges - who deals in properties worth tens of millions of dollars - said the very top of the market was still faring well.

"Our market's incredible. I've got 20 buyers with well over $20 million looking for waterfront. The top of the market is on fire. Hopefully those poor bastards in Bankstown will get some reprieve soon," he said.
I think I'll keep my eye on this Billy Bridges - I get the impression he'd sell one of his listings to his own mother, given the chance. Or find work with Antares.
It's not just Wall Street

Zillow cutting 25% of its workforce
This was an incredibly painful decision for me and the leadership team, but, in the end, we concluded that we had no choice but to securely batten down the hatches as we sail into a major economic storm. Despite having sizeable cash reserves, we deemed the responsible course was to meaningfully reduce expenses, so that Zillow emerges from the other side of the recession in a very strong position, even if the recession lasts many years.
[emphasis added, just in case your eyes had glazed over]
And they say real estate agents are Pollyanna's!

Bloomberg: Dow sees biggest gain this week since 2003 I suppose that may be true - if you start low enough, even a dead cat bounce will lift things a bit. But the past month's been a little ... discouraging.


Waving Goodbye

Thanks to a reader, here's a link to a humorous article: Hedge Funder calls it quits (that's not the burned - out hedge funder pictured above, by the way, it's Gaylord Nelson founder of Earth Day, old hippy and U.S. Senator; I just thought that in light of the hedge-funder's parting endorsement of the merits of dope, the two of them belong together). The Californian made a lot of money for a lot of people, including himself, and according to his farewell letter to investors, no longer wants to play the game:
"Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America."
Nothing to add to that, I suppose.

Unrelated Update: According to Blogger.com, which hosts this blog, this is my 1,000 posting - I passed the 50,000 visitors mark earlier this week. I don't know what good that knowledge will do, but it gives me a chance to go enjoy a celebratory cup of coffee - back later.
Demon Seed?
One of my guilty pleasures, I'm shamed to admit, is reading the local police blotter (a vice shared by too many people, alas - police blotters and obituaries are, I've read, the two most popular features of all local papers). Those pages have allowed me to follow the criminal career of one local family now since 1970, when the now-grandfather, then a local punk volunteer fireman, burned down a garage on my street, was arrested and charged with a series of arsons, including the destruction of the Riverside train station. Over the years, I'd see that he'd been caught for one transgression or another and went into and out of jail. He must have put his post-incarceration spells to good use because, after awhile I began noticing that other, much younger people with the same last name and still living in the area of their father were also running afoul of the law: breaking into the Howard Johnson's, drug busts, domestic violence calls, the usual stuff that what some call "the misfortunate" and I call the criminal class get into. In today's paper, a third generation appears.

My question is, why? There's another branch of this same family that is quite respectable, runs a successful business and has done so for at least four generations. What's up with this bunch? No answers here, I just find the phenomenon interesting. I know that alcoholism can run in families and certainly a lot of these reported crimes seem to have been fueled by that or other drugs (or, in the case of car break-ins, the need for drugs). But did some of the children escape? I can't tell, of course, because if they did they wouldn't appear in the police blotter. The one thing I'm pretty sure of is that it is not a case, as so many of my former clients claimed, of the police picking on them. I sometimes stir up our local force with some acerbic posts and, in the past, columns yet I've never been arrested or even accused of burglary, drunk driving or petty theft, no doubt because I don't engage in those activities. Most people don't - this family does. Why?

Friday, October 17, 2008

Bamma Bama O'Wamma

On the other hand, if you play nice, we'll get along just fine (but ditch that old guy, would'ya?
Obama to critics: "ACORN voter fraud? We don't have no stinkin' voter fraud and if you say we do, we'll have you prosecuted!

Politics for a change!
Weicker Liker in the desert sands


Here's a battle fought and lost in Connecticut
Arizona ballot proposition seeks to block sales tax on real estate conveyances
. In Connecticut, the original tax, a pet project of the despicable Lowell Weicker, I believe, was designed to hit just Gold Coast homes. When inflation caused the tax to reach all properties, not just those in Westport and Greenwich, the state kept the tax, doubled it for Gold Coast houses and even encouraged municipalities to double their own tax, while they were at it.

The Arizona proposition is being led by real estate agents, a fact duly noted by the paper covering the story, but here's the bit I like best:
John Wright, president of Arizona Education Association, said the proposition would stifle governments’ ability to discuss potential tax changes.
"It is an abuse of the Constitution; that’s what the Constitution is there for," Wright said. "It protects our right as citizens to discuss these issues."
Got to love those teachers - not content with looting property taxes and the general state coffers, they fume against any attempt to block still another source of revenue to pay for further pay raises.

But "it's for the kids", so that must be alright. I think public teachers are the biggest threat to the continuation of the United States that's out there, simply because they're determined to turn out multiple generations of mush-brained little collectivists. So I wouldn't give them a dime, and would force them out on the streets to try to earn an honest living.
Your opinion may differ.
So who's going to buy our mansions now?
Putin seeks to destroy oligarchs.

I suppose that if he ends up with all the money over there, Vlad might want to buy a chateau or two here, but that would still leave 120 or so of them unsold.

Don't you just hate when this happens?
24 Upland Road, $2.325 Million
The winner and still standing ...
The only house to go to contract this week. That makes seven for the month, in case you're counting.

Er, it can't happen here, right?
Brooklyn Real Estate tumbles alongside Wall Street
Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Brooklyn home prices tumbled 5.6 percent in the third quarter as Wall Street job losses reduced demand for real estate in the New York borough across the East River from lower Manhattan.

The median sale price for a home in Brooklyn fell to $510,000 from $540,000 a year earlier, according to a report issued today by New York-based real estate appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate. The number of sales tumbled 38 percent to 2,298.

Unemployment and tighter credit standards are cutting demand for real estate in New York City, said Paul Purcell, a partner in real estate consulting firm Braddock & Purcell. New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson yesterday raised his forecast for job losses in the city's financial service industry to about 35,000 over the next two years, up from his earlier estimate of 25,000, as the U.S. economy worsens.

``It's getting tougher and tougher to get a mortgage in New York, even if you still have your Wall Street job,'' Purcell said in an interview. ``Most lenders have stopped counting bonuses as income, and for Wall Street workers, that's the bulk of their paycheck.''
From a reader, a modern parable
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that's what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. 'Since you are all such good customers, he said, 'I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. Drinks for the ten now cost just $80. The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?' They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.!

And so:

The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings. 'I only got a dollar out of the $20,'declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,' but he got $10!' 'Yeah, that's right,' exclaimed the fifth man. 'I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got ten times more than I!' 'That's true!!' shouted the seventh man. 'Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!' 'Wait a minute,' yelled the first four men in unison. 'We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!' The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill! And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

David R. Kamerschen, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics, University of Georgia
2 Meadow - Deer Park
And so it begins?
While technically listed in February, this house only neared completion in, I think, August or early September, when the first broker open house was held. Price was $16,250,000. Today, it dropped to $14,750,000. Just saying ....
Why buy the cow ...

Hawaii drops universal health care for children
Hawaii is dropping the only state universal child health care program in the country just seven months after it launched.
Gov. Linda Lingle's administration cited budget shortfalls and other available health care options for eliminating funding for the program. A state official said families were dropping private coverage so their children would be eligible for the subsidized plan.
"People who were already able to afford health care began to stop paying for it so they could get it for free," said Dr. Kenny Fink, the administrator for Med-QUEST at the Department of Human Services. "I don't believe that was the intent of the program."
Geeze, ya think? Fortunately, when the Blessed one takes his rightful place in Washington this winter, the free manna health care plan he enacts will have no such difficulties. Because it, like Him, will be perfect.
The Ol' Debbil Cheney
Reader Claudette says, speaking of Ol' Joe, the plumber from (Ohio? Nebraska? Somewhere west of here),

"He was a plant by the Republicans, and since Senator McCain introduced him to us and he is a freak we are not going to let him get off that easily."
Now how on earth can Claudette and her fellow DemmerKrat friends even get up in the morning, knowing that Bush and Cheney are so hard at work setting up the downfall of poor Obama. Imagine the complexity of this snare: first they find an actor to play "Joe the Plumber". Then they set him up in what looks to be his own yard but is in fact a sound stage rented for the day by the Republicans because they know, they just know, that Obama's gonna come down that street and stop by to see Joe. And here's an even more nefarious part of the scheme: every single person on that street, every house, was occupied by a Republican operative. Obama was doomed to fall into the trap no matter where he stopped, no matter whom he spoke with!!!

I guess my only question is, if Claudette and her friends can spot a Republican plant so easily, if they can tell a freak when they see one, how come Obama's so naive, so blind? What does that say about his prospects for dealing with world leaders? Shit, even Hugo's gonna strip him of everything and ship him home starkers. I fear for our country.
126 Cat Rock Rd.
This house ML# 70557 sold for $3,595,000 in June, 2001. It came back on the market in July of this year for $4,150,000 and was lowered 5% today to $3,950,000. Even if it sells for this new price, that's only a $355,000 "gain" (before commissions, taxes and all the other inevitabilities) or 1.4% per year for seven years. Gives a new perspective on how the market has appreciated, eh? And, of course, it hasn't sold yet.
Greetings from Vancouver

I ran into a friend this morning who in turn introduced me to his friend, visiting from Vancouver. This man told me that the Vancouver real estate market, which has been booming for years with bushels of international money, shut down early this summer "like turning off a spigot". Apparently Vancouver goes through these spells more frequently than Greenwich but the pattern seems similar: prices go up, which draws in builder/developers from throughout Canada (turns out, Vancouver's in Canada - who knew?)and everyone overbuilds,office buildings, condominium developments and huge, multi-million dollar mansions. This continues until the bust, when everything that's been so recently built comes rushing back onto the market at fire-sale prices. This, the Canadian said, acts like a vortex, sucking down everything around it and prices of existing homes drop into its maw.

I'm pretty sure we're witnessing the beginning of that phenomenon here. Hold on.
Solar powered tipis? Cool! I'll take that one!
If you believe the National Association of Realtors - and I rarely do - buyers want energy efficient features built into their new homes. There's a caveat, however - they don't buy what they say they want. In fact, according to NAR's latest (2007) poll, buyers want
Cars and Cable
"Buyers have energy efficiency on their minds, but they still like their big houses and multiple cars, too.

If you want to know the direction of your customers’ homebuying preferences, think big cars and big screens.

Almost 60 percent of home buyers are prepared to spend more for a house with an oversized garage, and almost 40 percent would do the same to get a house that’s ready for cable or satellite TV, NAR research shows.

Both of these figures are up substantially from 2004, when NAR conducted similar research. In that year, buyers were willing to spend a premium in only 6 percent of cases for a big garage and in less than 30 percent of cases for enhanced TV readiness.

With their rise, oversized garages now rank second among the most desired features buyers want, up from fifth place three years ago. TV readiness has also edged up.
And here's an article whose headline claims More Buyers Looking for Green Houses but the body says otherwise:
" NAR has begun a new program to certify agents as green agents. They will be able to understand what makes a property green, explain to clients the benefits of green building features and practices, distinguish between industry rating and classification systems, list and market green homes and buildings, discuss the financial grants and incentives available to homeowners, and guide buyers in purchasing resource-efficient homes, said Michelle Wardlaw, spokeswoman for NAR....
Despite the trend, in this housing market, buyers may not consider energy-efficiency as a goal in home buying ,[emphasis added]. They will look for energy-efficient homes if their ultimate goal is realizing cost savings after they buy. Many people are interested in that, but they have many choices available to them.

In the Phoenix area, one homeowner reported that the low-E windows and high-efficient air conditioning and heat have not attracted buyers. While some buyers were impressed with the amount of work put into making the house energy efficient, they ultimately bought elsewhere, commenting on the age of the kitchen, he said. In fact, he told buyers how low his electric bill was in the summer, but it made no difference to the potential buyers.

Other areas of the country are more proactive for looking for the green homes. Wardlaw said NAR created the Green Designation Subject Matter Expert Panel. Agents on the panel come from Portland, Ore.; Berkeley, Calif.; Winston-Salem, N.C.; and Sarasota, Fla. However, Wardlaw couldn't estimate how many requests for green homes agents receive on average per month".

Well if she can't, I can. The number of buyers who request a "green" home in this town is zero (okay, go ahead and write me that you specifically asked for such a house - you'll be the exception that proves the rule.) If you're building in Berkeley, you may be better off planting a grass roof and tossing a pair of Birkenstocks into the deal. But in Greenwich, build that 5 car garage, toss plasma TV's around like candy and build big, big, big. Then price it cheap, and you're done.
Nothing to see here, move along, move along
Thanks to a blizzard of "investigative journalism" we now know far more about the personal life, past associations and financial records of "Joe the Plumber" than we do about the man he dared criticize, Barack Obama. Why this huge interest in a mid-western plumber and why the decision to devote an army of reporters to investigate him when that interest was lacking and the army too busy to investigate, say, Barack's sweetheart land deal with an indicted Chicago pol and "developer", or how, exactly, Bill Ayres set up Barak in politics?

Because none of that's news, or, worse, it's old news and it's time to Move On. Besides, Joe the Plumber has a tax lien against him! We found it and we want our Pulitzer, now!

The motto of these proud, fiercely independent graduates of Colombia's Journalism School: "We speak truth to power! We dig out news that must be told!"

And he did question the Anointed One's tax plan, after all.

We may get a break from all this nonsense - according to an impeccable source (the gossip columnist for our local weekly), "Greenwich resident and TV’s favorite judge, Judy Scheindlin, was seen parking her cream-colored convertible Bentley in front of Douglas Parfumerie on Greenwich Avenue last Thursday afternoon." That should serve to swing the media circus from the mid-west and out our way in a heartbeat. But if that's insufficient to do the trick, there's also this: "Riverside resident, NFL great and announcer Frank Gifford was recently spotted tooling around town in Greenwich in his light blue convertible."

I think I'm going to unleash our own Amanda Von Stuckle on that last story - What it's Worth deserves a Pulitzer, too.

As our Suzie says,
"And that’s all for now."
Good news for homeowners and airlines, bad news for "experts"

Oil drops below $70 a barrel
Signs that an enfeebled U.S. economy is using less and less oil sent world crude prices below $70 a barrel for the first time in 14 months, a dramatic turnaround for a market that not long ago had some analysts predicting $200-a-barrel oil as early as next year.
When a befuddled and furious Hugo Chavez demanded of his own budget planners an explanation as to why he could no longer afford to buy Russian bombers, that group is reported to have chorused "Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!" I hope so, anyway.

Thursday, October 16, 2008


Dodd holds hearings on cause of mortgage failures

If this is what he thinks of his own constituents, imagine what he thinks of us?

Rep. Murtha calls his constituents racists

Ah, the politics of change - can't hardly wait.
(And dig that American flag - the man's a patriot, by God!)

Update:
Anyone who supports McCain is a racist
The marquee supporting the GOP ticket in "an area that is strongly African American was like putting a stink bomb in the middle of the living room," said University of Maryland political Professor Ron Walters.
Oh, we're in for a lovely time.

In Greenwich we'd have just tasered the little trouble maker.
9 year old schizophrenic school girl tossed in jail cell
There goes the neighborhood! Hedge funds to cut 10,000 jobs. The article also says $43 billion of investors' money has been yanked out of those funds, so far. Do you know how much Greenwich office space is occupied by hedge funds? And how many of those buildings are owned by foreign REITS? Neither do I, but I'll bet the answer is, "a whole bunch", and I know that, when REITS feel the pressure, they look to dump foreign assets for whatever they can get. That may cause rents to drop, but if rent drops in a vacant office building, does anyone hear?
19 Farley Street
Buy this house now, $1.045 million.
A reader asked about nice houses in the million dollar range - this is one. Its builder, Al Oliveira, does great work. I met Al when he and Rick Hvolbeck did just a stellar job on Pal Nancy's house, replacing work that had been done by far less talented carpenters in the past. If his workmanship displayed there is typical of his other work, and I'm sure it is, then this house was built well and tight. It certainly appeared to be when I toured it.

This was priced originally at $1.595 and, a year ago, that would have been a fair price. Now, after several price reductions that have dropped it below what it cost to build, it can be had for a hair over $1.0 million. That's an excellent buy and no, it's not my listing. But I'll be glad to sell it to you - give me a call.
Update: someone said she couldn't find the house on Raveis.com. It is a Weikert listing, but here are the details as posted by Raveis:19 farley Street, ML# 69428
230 Bedford Road

I really liked this house, way up near the end of Bedford Road, when it first came on the market in May of 2003. I didn't like its price, $5.9 million and neither did anyone else - it finally sold for $4.0 million a year later. The new owners have "renovated" it (open house is scheduled for next Tuesday, when we'll have a chance to see how encompassing that term is) and have placed it back on the market for $5.5 million. We'll see how that goes but the house does illustrate that wildly overpricing houses was happening in 2003, too.
Funny
Somewhere, a young lawyer is crying for help.
More on 25 Beechcroft
Peter Janis, listing agent for this house, is miffed hopping mad. He called today to point out that I haven't been in the house to appreciate its quality and that, in his opinion, the price of this house has nothing to do with "the numbers". With deference to Peter, whom I like and know to be a good, knowledgeable agent, I think numbers do control for at least two reasons. First is the affect a sale across the street for $6.2 has on a house going for $7.950. The lower priced house may indeed be, as someone described it, "a total fiasco" but what does the buyer know? Two 9,000 sq. ft houses, both brand new, one on a pond and the other across the street from it, how much does a little body of water add in value? I suspect that the answer is, "not $1,750,000". One can point out all the special features in a house, its superb quality and its great flow, all for naught. At least in my experience, the buyer will still ask, "so why would I pay that much more? They both have plasma TVs in the master bedroom, right?"

The second reason numbers count is that bank appraisers count them. These guys can't get into the houses they base their comps on so they mostly ignore special details built into the house they're examining. Does #16's construction match that of #25? They don't know, so they don't care. They look for the most recent sale in the neighborhood, calculate its square footage and age, toss a little pixie dust into the air and presto! They have a value. In this case, the appraiser need merely look across the street to see a house the same size and age of the subject property and, when he learns that it sold just last week for $6.2 million, he's going to be inclined to value the house he's appraising at close to the same price. Or so I think. I'm wrong on all sorts of things (like how to spell Patrick Daniel Moynihan) and I could be all wet on this one. I don't want to see Peter or his listing encounter difficulty; I pointed out the two houses merely to illustrate what I fear will become the dreaded domino effect in Greenwich housing, as more spec builders dump their projects for whatever they can get.

Well Darn!
There were 6-8 comments lined up waiting this morning for posting. I clicked on them and then pushed "reject" instead of "publish" (the buttons on my iPhone are too small for a clumsy-fingered guy like me) and now they're ...who knows where rejected electrons go? Anyway, sorry - please write again.
29 Irvine, OG
Two Sales of Note

29 Irvine sold yesterday for $2,150,000 which is a little less than 75% of what was asked for back in May and possibly far less than its original price in January - I can't tell; all records of the original price, except for the date of the listing contract, have disappeared from the Greenwich Multiple Listing Service's records. Would the GMLS expunge records? You tell me.

3 Old farms Road (north of the Post Road, in Old Greenwich)sold for $1,525,000, 76% of its original asking price back in April, $1,995,000 and $225,000 less than they paid for it ($1,750,000) in August, 2003. Ouch.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.
A real estate columnist in my old paper writes today that
"The Pending Home Sales Index representing contracts signed in August increased 7.4% from an upward revision in July and is 8.8% higher than August 2007."
That would certainly be encouraging, if it were accurate, and I'm confident that her paper will receive no complaints from its real estate advertisers about her column. And that, according to the paper's editor and publisher, is precisely the point.

But what if readers are being delivered a wheelbarrow full of dung? Here are the real statistics for Greenwich contracts.

July, 2008: 39; July, 2007: 40. Call it a draw.
August, 2008: 22; August, 2007: 46. That's 48% down, not 8.8% higher, by my math (and, though I don't pretend to understand what an "upward revision from July" means, Aug. '08's contracts represent a 56% decline from the preceding month, not a 7.4% increase).
September, 2008: 24; September, 2007: 33 - 28% decline
October 1-17, 2008: 6; October 1-17, 2007: 17 - 65% decline.

The last Democrat I admired (and probably ever will), Daniel Patrick Moynahan Moynihan, once said, "everyone's entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." At least one paper in town didn't get that memo.
NYT: House prices have a long way (down) to go. Darn it, that ol' pessimist IB'er who plagues these pages must have gotten to them!
I'm kidding about our local Casandra of course and besides - in my darker moments I completely agree with him. One thing to note in the article is the "home price vs. rent ratio". According to experts, whoever they are, that ratio should be 15:1 and in parts of Florida it's still as high as 22:1, indicating plenty of room for more deterioration. What good are ratio's like this? Well, an earlier commentator on this blog noted that the price to earnings ratio was still way above historical levels and predicted that stocks would continue to fall. He was right.
I really don't know what Greenwich's sales to rent ratio is but I'll find that out today (hey - it's early, gimme a break) and post it here. I'm guessing that it's way above 15.
Bye, Bye!
Sternberg Quits
Our School Superintendent announced yesterday that she will not seek to have her employment contract renewed. She leaves in June.
Well, even if her students can't, now we know that Sternberg can read writing on the wall.
Time to consider Peter Tesei's (and others') idea of selecting our next Superintendent from among the ranks of our current principals, who presumably know the town, its students and the parents. And if none do, who are we hiring as our principals?

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

London Bridge (to NYC) is falling down This Britisher looks at the falling pound and Euro, examines this years sales of expensive New York condos to Europeans and concludes that the New York real estate business is about to fall on hard times . Perhaps he's hysterical [a newspaper reporter? You're kidding,right? Ed.] but bad news for that market is bad news for ours. Who do you think is, after selling their city co-ops, plunking the cash down here?

Politics for a Change! Biden funnels $2,000,000 campaign loot to family . But don't worry: Aides to Mr. Biden said all of the payments he has made to family members or their employers were aboveboard.

Well that's a relief. I was worried that, after only 38 years in Washington, the man had been corrupted!



Leather Jackets
When I sold my first book in 2000, I received a nice advance from the publisher and, suddenly flush with cash for the first time in years, I indulged myself: I had always wanted one of those cool horsehide WW II flight jackets and, as a young lad, my father forbade it - too much of a hooligan look, he felt. Well my father had died 12 years before, I was as adult as I'd ever be and so I went searching for the real thing. I found it at Lost Worlds, Inc., the link for which is above. I couldn't convert their pictures into postable jpegs (I'm sure it's possible but not with my limited skills) so you'll have to use the link to see the product. Or put up with my description. [ figured it out - God bless Google] Real horsehide, meticulously manufactured in NYC to the original Army Air Corp specifications and, all in all, a terrific jacket. Mine's 8 years old now and it's just about broken in. The only thing that's ever gone wrong with it was the little pull tab for the zipper that fell off last spring. An email to the owner, Stuart, got a replacement in the mail, free, that very same day.

So great service, too. They also make some good looking motorcycle jackets (my father would spin in his grave), 1950s western shirts, and all sorts of old fashioned quality garb that I've seen only in old movies.

I have the bonus of being reminded, every time I slip on my jacket, of my first publishing success. You don't need that rush to enjoy this clothing, just a boyhood memory of 12 O'clock High or Gary Cooper facing down bad guys on Main Street. So go to their website and check them out. Great company, great stuff. And if you know how to convert a "web archive" into a jpeg, please write.
Another funny tale about 25 Close Road
Funny to me, anyway. When my first book, The New Millionaire's Handbook had been accepted for publication and was being illustrated out in Kansas City the illustrator was obviously unable to comprehend the size of the monsters we were growing here in Greenwich. He kept sending me drafts of what he thought were mansions and I saw as hovels until, frustrated, I drove my daughter Kat and her camera up to this place and had her take some shots of it as it was nearing completion. I sent those off, the book came out and I thought nothing more of the house until it came up for sale. I brought my book to the broker open house and showed it to the listing agent: "Look! Your house is all over my book! Isn't that swell?" She closed the book and snapped, "put that away!"

As I said, funny to me.
Curmudgeon! From the comments section, this gloomy assessment from Ib'er, or retired investment banker:
Chris, I would agree that pricing will not go to zero.

I am beginning, however, to believe that the real estate correction is going to be much more severe than anyone is currently prepared for. Most prognosticators offered their peak to trough pricing views assuming a not severe recession or significant rising unemployment. I believe we are headed for a severe recession with much higher unemployment.

How far this will drive down prices I cannot guess. Nevertheless, the aforementioned factors added to the destruction of wealth in the stock market and lenders returning to prudent lending standards are/will be massive headwinds for future real estate pricing.

Retired IB'er
If you'll provide your address, IB'er, I'm sure the Greenwich Board of Realtors would be glad to send you a copy of "Everything's Coming up Roses", just to cheer you up. I've worn out my own copy and it didn't do me a damn bit of good.
Mortgage Money
Contrary to what you may have heard, it's still available, and at pretty good rates. My pal Nancy is in the process of refinancing (oh, those wonderful student loans!) with my own firm's mortgage banker, Mark Hawkins (203 257-5805) and approval was almost instant. I'm not flogging Ravies Raveis (tough when your boss points out that you spelled the name of your own G--D--- firm wrong) here and I certainly don't get a piece of the action (illegal and, by odd coincidence, unethical) but a number of large real estate firms have, out of self defense I suppose, pooled their cash and struck a deal with those banks that are still lending. The firms act as mortgage bankers rather than brokers and loans are getting done (for non-real estate customers as well as buyers, fyi).

What's changed, then? Nothing, if you got a loan 10 years ago, plenty if you borrowed last year. Credit score should be over 700 (there are exceptions, but 700 is a good starting point) you're definitely going to be putting 20% and perhaps even 30% down, documentation of income and assets is required - no more "no-doc" loans - appraisals may be tighter, and so forth. In short, the bankers have adopted the Who's credo as their own: "We won't be fooled again!" Of course, when it comes to reviewing the banks's own behavior over the past decade, one might be tempted to ask who was fooling whom, but that's for another day.
What to do with bankers who cling bitterly to their guns, religion and money? The NYT's Floyd Norris says, "jawbone them". Worked on asses, I recall, or do I have that wrong? IB'r, CEA, all you other financial wizards out there. Any suggestions?
In the Crapper Outhouse
In the past ten days, exactly four single family houses have gone to contract. That's not good, for sellers, but if you're tempted to buy right now, your position is pretty strong because you'll be just about the only game in town.

Spec Home Update
Or, as suggested by CEA and borrowing from Instapundit, "Carnival of the Spec Homes".
Either way, there are 44 new homes on the market priced from $6 million to $25 million. Most, but not quite all of them were built before the sellers had found buyers (Tommy Hilfiger's, $25 million on Round Hill Road, appears to be lived in) and at least one of them, 20 Langhorne, remains unbuilt and is offered as a completed house at $10.998 (down from $14.9) or as land, for $2.995. I'd bet it sells, if at all, for a building lot and I'm confident no more money will be put into this project to create another unsold house.

But that still leaves a large number of seemingly unwanted, very expensive buildings all looking for buyers. How many of those were put up by builders without the financial resources to hold on through this "rough patch" - or, if you prefer, "eff'in unmitigated disaster"? My guess is, not so many and if I'm right, we'll be seeing these at huge price reductions - perhaps 50% - or as bank-owned properties. Banks are always interested in getting their money back but they aren't in the business of holding real estate and they like to move those houses they do end up with so they, too may start whacking prices. What will that do to the other spec homes? Common sense suggests that if your stone and clapboard, 11,000 sq.ft. rah da da da house, priced at $12.5 million, is competing with essentially the same house down the street that's asking $5 ... you're in trouble.

Update: The house pictured here, by the way, 25 Close Road, isn't included in the inventory because it's currently off the market. Built in 2003 (by a Russian, I believe - a pioneer!) it never sold, despite all sorts of price "adjustments" from $15.9 million, up to $18 million and down again to, eventually, $15,750,000. Nothing worked. Of interest to me at least is that the seller went through about 5 brokers (it couldn't have been the price, it must have been the broker's fault) and only the last bothered to take her own pictures of the place - everyone else just used the first broker's efforts. I'd expect a little more if I were trying to sell a house in this price range but then, they were probably all very well dressed and to some sellers, that's all that matters.

From Dr. Helen (a/k/a "Instawife"): Is it time to go John Galt?
Perhaps the partisan politics we are dealing with now is really just a struggle between those of us who believe in productivity, personal responsibility, and keeping government interference to a minimum, and those who believe in the socialistic policies of taking from others, using the government as a watchdog, and rewarding those who overspend, underwork, or are just plain unproductive.

Obama talks about taking from those who are productive and redistributing to those who are not — or who are not as successful. If success and productivity is to be punished, why bother? Perhaps it is time for those of us who make the money and pay the taxes to take it easy, live on less, and let the looters of the world find their own way.

Sounds about right to me.